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-   -   Time to buy? What are you buying? (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/time-to-buy-what-are-you-buying-102766.html)

Dash man 03-20-2020 08:59 AM

Time to buy? What are you buying?
 
Okay, I decided today to start putting some of my money back to work. This morning I purchased shares of C, CMG, MAR and V.
Is anybody else dipping their toe in and if so, what are you buying?

Midpack 03-20-2020 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dash man (Post 2392147)
Okay, I decided today to start putting some of my money back to work. This morning I purchased shares of C, CMG, MAR and V.
Is anybody else dipping their toe in and if so, what are you buying?

I assume you meant this for the Stock Picking forum? I’m just rebalancing adding to my existing AA holdings at month end. I’m an avowed non timer. BTW, the COVID-19 episode isn’t over yet but you believe the market reaction if fully baked in now?

Dash man 03-20-2020 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack (Post 2392151)
I assume you meant this for the Stock Picking forum? Iím just rebalancing adding to my existing AA holdings at month end. Iím an avowed non timer.


No, it doesnít have to be individual stocks. I know there are many ETF, Mutual Funds and bond buyers here.

My bond ETFs and mutual funds took a beating too, so I sold them to buy the stocks.

Midpack 03-20-2020 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dash man (Post 2392155)
No, it doesn’t have to be individual stocks. I know there are many ETF, Mutual Funds and bond buyers here.

My bond ETFs and mutual funds took a beating too, so I sold them to buy the stocks.

I just assumed the four you listed were individual stocks.

And not looking for a debate, but I am curious why you think now is a good time if you’re willing to share? Don’t know where the markets are going but it seems we’re far from the end of the underlying event(s)?

Dash man 03-20-2020 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack (Post 2392175)
I just assumed the four you listed were individual stocks.



And not looking for a debate, but I am curious why you think now is a good time?



They are. But Iím asking what others are doing, if anything.

capjak 03-20-2020 09:33 AM

With state after state going to be announcing "shelter at home". This would not be a buying op for me, just going to stay put for now.

calmloki 03-20-2020 09:34 AM

Think there will be a glut of commercial property on the market in a few months. Ever had the desire to own a nice motel? I've read the suggestion that many of the folks who thought airBnB places would cover the mortgage and expenses and give a nice cash on cash return are going to be in the hurts as travel stays drop. I'm wondering,morbidly, about how many people are going to tough it out too long and croak it in their homes. Images of mummified little old couples in their little old homes.

aja8888 03-20-2020 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dash man (Post 2392177)
They are. But Iím asking what others are doing, if anything.

I unloaded a bunch of ETF's in late February. My AA then was roughly 25/75. I'm sitting on 90% cash (a lot of 3% CD's, a muni bond fund, and two MM funds) and sitting this out until the smoke clears. I am 76 1/2 and DW is 75 with serious health issues.

When all you kind and knowledgeable folks here think it's time to buy, let me know and I will wait another month or so before I make a decision to get back in or not. :)

aja8888 03-20-2020 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calmloki (Post 2392187)
I'm wondering,morbidly, about how many people are going to tough it out too long and croak it in their homes. Images of mummified little old couples in their little old homes.

I'll tell the kids not to post any pictures of us on FB or that neighborhood site. ;)

Tiger8693 03-20-2020 09:43 AM

Bought 1000 shares of F at $4.11 yesterday, hoping to get a $2k bump over the next couple of weeks. If not, I will just hold for a month or two. Not much in the game, but just "gampling" since my trip to Vegas was cancelled. ;D

Freedom56 03-20-2020 09:59 AM

I have been buying and selling investment grade preferred stocks for the past week. I make a big purchase yesterday in preferred stocks and started to unload them today. I also bought some investment grade short term notes to add to my bond portfolio. I am now 20% cash and 80% bonds and CDs. A lot of the bad headlines that we will see in the coming weeks is already discounted. As long as the volatility drops, people will have more confidence moving forward. The yield curve has normalized for now signally a recover ahead. However, this event will accelerate the demise of many sectors in the market that were already in a bear market like retail and energy and others. The government can't save every business. We are likely to see more of these events in the future so investors will be more cautious moving forward. In the long run, we are going to enter an extended secular bear market with some powerful surges up. Long term I see the 10 year note going to near zero after the effects of the government bailouts end. What other states need to do is what California is doing now. I saw a drone shot of Santa Monica Pier this morning. It was completely empty. While this may be shocking to a lot of people, it was actually encouraging that people are finally listening. A virus spreads by infecting hosts. If there are no hosts, to spread to, it dies out. This is biology 101.

Dash man 03-20-2020 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calmloki (Post 2392187)
Think there will be a glut of commercial property on the market in a few months. Ever had the desire to own a nice motel? I've read the suggestion that many of the folks who thought airBnB places would cover the mortgage and expenses and give a nice cash on cash return are going to be in the hurts as travel stays drop. I'm wondering,morbidly, about how many people are going to tough it out too long and croak it in their homes. Images of mummified little old couples in their little old homes.



Weíre wondering if the three families that booked our Jersey Shore home are going to back out. We have deposits and will return them if asked, but hope theyíre still planning on going.

teejayevans 03-20-2020 10:03 AM

Guns, ammo, and chloroquine. ;-)

Montecfo 03-20-2020 10:07 AM

I have been adding to positions in very small increments on the huge down days.

I look for stocks with long secular growth runways that are beaten up, and some div stalwarts.

The market will bottom well before coronavirus fears are gone. Don't know when that will be but my experience when down this much is hold your nose and buy (or rebalance into) equities.

DallasGuy 03-20-2020 10:22 AM

Unless you're an active trader and buying and selling stocks to make short term profits, I just don't understand the wisdom of buying at this moment for the long term. Unless you have a crystal ball or you're attempting to time a bottom, wouldn't it be more wise to wait to see how this coronavirus thing plays out? My gut feel is that even with the government bailouts, we're headed for a big recession or worse, depression. I'm not criticizing your decisions to buy just trying to understand your logic.

ownyourfuture 03-20-2020 11:09 AM

I've been adding National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) REIT
It was 90$ less than a month ago & trading at $40 today.
(no, it didn't split)

Lawrencewendall 03-20-2020 11:40 AM

Not much, but I put my tax refund (2k) into GEO today. Time will tell if this was a smart decision. Won't break the bank either way.:)

Dash man 03-20-2020 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DallasGuy (Post 2392240)
Unless you're an active trader and buying and selling stocks to make short term profits, I just don't understand the wisdom of buying at this moment for the long term. Unless you have a crystal ball or you're attempting to time a bottom, wouldn't it be more wise to wait to see how this coronavirus thing plays out? My gut feel is that even with the government bailouts, we're headed for a big recession or worse, depression. I'm not criticizing your decisions to buy just trying to understand your logic.



Iím 63, so still see long term for half of my portfolio. The market may go down more, but itís easier to catch a good buy on the way down than it is on the way up, IMO. I expect the market to rise sharply when see the turnaround point in this virus scare. It may not rise back to its former high for a while, but it will rise sharply. Airlines and cruise lines will continue to have a tough road, but some industries are way oversold.

Dogpeace 03-20-2020 11:46 AM

I am not buying anything yet... will let the cash sit. A few months of missing earnings won't amount to a hill of beans compared to what else is going on right now.

This recovery will be slow, in my opinion. No need to try and time the bottom. There will be plenty of time and plenty of signals when the bear market is over. It's only just begun, after all!!:angel:

Dash man 03-20-2020 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ownyourfuture (Post 2392283)
I've been adding National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) REIT

It was 90$ less than a month ago & trading at $40 today.

(no, it didn't split)



Iíll have to check that out.

capjak 03-20-2020 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Freedom56 (Post 2392223)
I am now 20% cash and 80% bonds and CDs.

Were you always Zero stock (not counting preferred)?

Freedom56 03-20-2020 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by capjak (Post 2392330)
Were you always Zero stock (not counting preferred)?

I have been in fixed income since 1989. Prior to that I was in equities and got burned too many times by full service brokers in the early to mid 80's. I took matters into my own hands and made an effort to understand business, economics, and financial accounting. Other than some day trades, I really am not too interested in equities other than researching them to see what they offer in terms of bonds.

48Fire 03-20-2020 02:23 PM

Even my wife is now interested in buying bargain stocks now :laugh: She is thinking Southwest, P & G, and I am thinking Disney. I think there is more bottom to the market, but who knows. If states start shutting down for 2 months, like California, this is going to be really ugly for a long time.

Dash man 03-20-2020 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 48Fire (Post 2392483)
Even my wife is now interested in buying bargain stocks now :laugh: She is thinking Southwest, P & G, and I am thinking Disney. I think there is more bottom to the market, but who knows. If states start shutting down for 2 months, like California, this is going to be really ugly for a long time.


Just think of the pent up demand! People will be swarming to anything that gets them out of the house!
And Iím going to keep telling myself that!

48Fire 03-20-2020 02:43 PM

But I am thinking P & G will crash, because everyone already bought a lifetime's worth of toilet paper :facepalm:

RobLJ 03-20-2020 03:36 PM

Buying
 
Wednesday, I used 8% of cash to buy Fidelity S&P Index and Vanguard Total Market.

Tuesday and Thursday in the taxable account I sold some Closed End Bond funds that I bought in Jan in order to tax-loss harvest and picked up roughly equivalent positions in similar funds.

Today, I started small positions in Prudential and PPL, which look very cheap.

I decided to start putting cash to work when the drop was 25-30%, then every drop of about 5%, put another 3-5% to work. Hopefully we hit bottom before I run out of cash. I'm keeping at least 20-25% of my cash position (it was 30%) for the next two year's withdrawals. I took 2019 gains in Jan and Feb, so the cash position was unusually high and my stock allocation was close to 40%, which is too low.

Daniel J 03-20-2020 03:45 PM

I started rebalancing this week but am I taking it slow as I suspect further declines are likely. 1% on Tuesday, another .5% today.

Markola 03-20-2020 04:55 PM

Our Target Date Funds rebalance nightly and our Vanguard advisor rebalances quarterly if bands are exceeded so zzzzzzzZZZZzzzzz. Boring is best.

Montecfo 03-20-2020 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DallasGuy (Post 2392240)
Unless you're an active trader and buying and selling stocks to make short term profits, I just don't understand the wisdom of buying at this moment for the long term. Unless you have a crystal ball or you're attempting to time a bottom, wouldn't it be more wise to wait to see how this coronavirus thing plays out? My gut feel is that even with the government bailouts, we're headed for a big recession or worse, depression. I'm not criticizing your decisions to buy just trying to understand your logic.

Be greedy when others are fearful. The market is discounting a recession. I have been buying (in small positions) because I do not know where the bottom is.

pb4uski 03-21-2020 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DallasGuy (Post 2392240)
Unless you're an active trader and buying and selling stocks to make short term profits, I just don't understand the wisdom of buying at this moment for the long term. Unless you have a crystal ball or you're attempting to time a bottom, wouldn't it be more wise to wait to see how this coronavirus thing plays out? My gut feel is that even with the government bailouts, we're headed for a big recession or worse, depression. ...

+1 I've pared down my equity position over the last week or so. I think it is really hard to assess how deep and wide this recession is going to be and the market is just guessing, so I'll trade some conservatism for some upside. I just have a gut feel that this recession is going to be a nasty one and there is so much uncertainty it is difficult to assess the impact on business and the economy. What the Fed has done with interest rates to artifically prop up the stock market is also a concern as is the high proportion of market activity that is just traders doing their thing.

On the upside, our retirement portfolio is about the same in total as when we retired 8 years ago after funding 8 years of living expenses plus buying a winter condo (10% of retirement date balance) and replacing our one-car garage with a two-car garage with a bonus loft (2.5% of retirement date balance)... so we are still well positioned... about 14% ahead of where I projected we would be at this time when we retired.

I'm thinking of this as a "time-out" to reassess our risk appetite and AA going forward and once that is decided, how to catch that falling knife without getting cut.

I'm also mulling over perhaps using a portion of portfolio income to buy LEAPs or at-the-money or slightly out-of-the-money SPX index calls to capture equity returns to mitigate inflation risk rather than direct equity investments.

audreyh1 03-21-2020 01:18 AM

I’ve been tax loss harvesting some legacy active funds. I keep it allocation neutral which means I buying the corresponding index fund same day.

I didn’t think I’d get this kind of opportunity to do a clean-up, but had planned for it if the opportunity arose. It should mean lower taxes in the future.

David1961 03-21-2020 04:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 2392794)
Iíve been tax loss harvesting some legacy active funds. I keep it allocation neutral which means I buying the corresponding index fund same day.

I didnít think Iíd get this kind of opportunity to do a clean-up, but had planned for it if the opportunity arose. It should mean lower taxes in the future.

You mean you are selling some of your actively managed mutual funds to take these capital losses and putting the money into index funds? That is a great idea. Just want to make sure I understand. Even at the market peak, my cost basis would not have generated as much capital gains as I thought, since I pay taxes on the distributions each year.

cooch96 03-21-2020 05:22 AM

VTSAX. I’ve invested about 25% of my dry powder this week. I expect we’ll see the market bottom in weeks, not months. We might even already be there.

I must say, it’s easy to be sanguine about this catastrophe. Traffic is blissfully down, and the few people I do meet are all civil and polite. No looting or panics in my neck of the woods. DW did get terminated from her temp job yesterday, but I was expecting that.

rkser 03-21-2020 07:00 AM

Lots of activity in my portfolio lately.

Buying VTSAX in taxable mainly on days S&P is down at least by 100 points & also some Total International Stock Index. There have been lots of those down days recently.

I am cognizant that Market will go down more in the coming days

I regretted not buying in 2008-2010 Market downturn & saw the Bull Market since. I have more time being (Seasoned??) in the Market since, although I know that may not be repeated.

I am 63, was 56/46 before the downturn & am now around 48/52 & my goal is generally to be around 50/50. I will be in the Market for another 15 yrs or more, so I think (although can be flat out wrong) I have a reasonable chance to see it recover & go to new heights. USA probably will not be another Japan

I have put in some from our savings but more from Tax Exempt Intermediate Bond(in taxable) & did the Roth Conversion from VBTLX to VTSAX. So more of re balancing from Bonds into VTSAX & some new money into VTSAX.

Funds for our living expenses for next 10 yr or so will be coming from Bonds & Cash. Well, this can be called Market Timing, but am not selling Stock Funds anytime soon.

Golfquest20 03-21-2020 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo (Post 2392766)
Be greedy when others are fearful. The market is discounting a recession. I have been buying (in small positions) because I do not know where the bottom is.

This

mrfeh 03-21-2020 07:03 AM

We are outside of our rebalancing bands, but are still waiting for things to stabilize a bit before buying equities.

I'd be amazed if we see a V shaped recovery. I think we're either going further down or sideways for a while.

COcheesehead 03-21-2020 07:38 AM

The wild card is if governors issue orders for non essential workers to shelter in place. That will bring almost everything to a halt. That may be our moment of capitulation.
I have tax loss harvested out of everything I can and that was a couple weeks ago. Might have been my best move. I have been picking up AAA select muni’s at yields I haven’t seen in years.
There is plenty of time to buy equities. This will be the worst market of our lives. I am in no rush.

ownyourfuture 03-21-2020 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 2392794)
Iíve been tax loss harvesting some legacy active funds. I keep it allocation neutral which means I buying the corresponding index fund same day.

I didnít think Iíd get this kind of opportunity to do a clean-up, but had planned for it if the opportunity arose. It should mean lower taxes in the future.

AAA+++

jazz4cash 03-22-2020 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead (Post 2392891)
The wild card is if governors issue orders for non essential workers to shelter in place. That will bring almost everything to a halt. That may be our moment of capitulation.
I have tax loss harvested out of everything I can and that was a couple weeks ago. Might have been my best move. I have been picking up AAA select muniís at yields I havenít seen in years.
There is plenty of time to buy equities. This will be the worst market of our lives. I am in no rush.



I think itís already happened in most places but the definition of essential worker could become more restrictive and it seems enforcement is a problem. I agree....plenty of time to buy equities. Iím considering a muni bond purchase and have no idea how market will play out for these. Bonds that typically have zero availability are at par vs +12 a week ago.

Tiger8693 03-22-2020 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jazz4cash (Post 2393978)
I think itís already happened in most places but the definition of essential worker could become more restrictive and it seems enforcement is a problem. I agree....plenty of time to buy equities. Iím considering a muni bond purchase and have no idea how market will play out for these. Bonds that typically have zero availability are at par vs +12 a week ago.

Yes. I am not sure how the enforcement will be done. Arrest and lock up with all of the other violators in a 10x10? :blush:

GreenEggs 03-22-2020 09:51 AM

I've been studying the charts, screeners, insider trading lists, & the news for everything that appears interesting. Then I ran them all through the portfolio visualizer to see how they performed over various timeframes. It's very interesting to see how they compare. Some of the popular FANG stocks weren't as impressive as I'd have assumed.

I'm a beginner at this, so I've just been guessing about how to utilize online data. What info do most of you folks consider important when choosing long-term stocks?

CaliKid 03-22-2020 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ownyourfuture (Post 2392283)
I've been adding National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) REIT
It was 90$ less than a month ago & trading at $40 today.
(no, it didn't split)

I have not heard of the company but just looked them up. Looks interesting. They seem to be in a good space (medical and senior housing) which should be good for a long time. Without knowing anything I try to guess why it dropped so much more than the market as a whole!? If anything it seems medical should be good. You have any insight or thoughts on it?

CaliKid 03-22-2020 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calmloki (Post 2392187)
Think there will be a glut of commercial property on the market in a few months. Ever had the desire to own a nice motel? I've read the suggestion that many of the folks who thought airBnB places would cover the mortgage and expenses and give a nice cash on cash return are going to be in the hurts as travel stays drop. I'm wondering,morbidly, about how many people are going to tough it out too long and croak it in their homes. Images of mummified little old couples in their little old homes.

I think it will be a lot longer than a few months. At this point the properties can be sold and returned to single family use. Values are still up at this point. It's not like 2008-2010 when prices had dropped so severely. In fact, in many markets I own in we are just back to the 2005-2006 peaks. Lots of the airBnB types (short term rentals or STRs) were bought between 2010 and the present so most have equity if they sell.

Now, actual commercial properties might be different. I wouldn't want to own a retail strip center right about now. Even people that own multi-family buildings are worried as they don't know if people are going to pay the rent on the 1st. Time will tell.

In all, I think it will be a long while before there are incredible buying opportunities in real estate. Just my two cents....

11522914 03-22-2020 11:44 AM

Puts are very expensive. So I just recently started selling cash covered puts in my IRAs. Usually I sell at a strike price 10 to 20% below the stock price. That way if the stock goes up I lose the opportunity but keep the expensive put premium. If not I just bought the stock cheaper.

Recently sold puts on T, XLE and JETS.

Ended up getting T at 29 (had sold my position recently at $37.25) and JETS at 13.

Had another lower strike JETS and XLE puts expire so I got to keep the expensive premium.

Haven't sold puts on SPY but most likely will this week. I'm currently at ~9% equities so this is how I will slowly get up to 35% - which is my goal. It's best to sell them on a strong down day as they get ridiculously expensive. But even on recent up days they still are quite expensive.

mrfeh 03-22-2020 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GreenEggs (Post 2394072)

I'm a beginner at this, so I've just been guessing about how to utilize online data. What info do most of you folks consider important when choosing long-term stocks?

Please read this before you do anything:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogl...g_start-up_kit

accountingsucks 03-22-2020 04:49 PM

Futures limit down again. I think we see 20% drop tomorrow

ESRwannabe 03-22-2020 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dash man (Post 2392147)
Okay, I decided today to start putting some of my money back to work. This morning I purchased shares of C, CMG, MAR and V.
Is anybody else dipping their toe in and if so, what are you buying?


So far I have made purchases of:

WFC, BAC, C, JPM, T, MPC, KMI

(*) I figure the major banks are actually some of the safest companies to own this time and that the Fed has their back. The banks have very strong balance sheets. IMHO the government is going to prevent as many people from defaulting on loans as possible and give free money to people to pay their bills.

(*) With AT&T I believe they will be ok as people will hold onto their cell phones, and internet access for as long as possible. Also people that have money for it, will gladly pay for HBO, WarnerBrothers, etc content while they are stuck at home with nothing to do. T does have a lot of debt, but they paid off like $30 billion in 2019. Their free cash flow is beefy. I think the come out of this ok.

(*) I make my case for owning MPC over on this thread:
https://www.early-retirement.org/for...iz-102744.html
For similar reasons I have a small position started in KMI.

Luckily for me I work in infrastructure IT and my employer actually needs my skills more than ever with everyone working at home now. Also I work for a very stable employer anyway. So I am not worried about my w-2 income. So, I will be pouring every cent I can into more stocks.

P.S. Also I could survive off of my dividend income from my taxable account if I had to (roughly $22k). Assuming of course that dividends are not cut, which I feel pretty confident none will be. Might even get some raises.

FIREd_2015 03-22-2020 05:47 PM

I've been sitting in cash/short term securities the last several years watching the market reach one all time high after another. I've been following the margin data on finra.org and latest data as of the end of Feb is at $545.1 billion. That's a lot of borrowed money and I think there are a lot of margin calls yet to come. I've dusted off Metastock and started charting SPY, SSO and USO. I'm waiting for another 20-30% drop from these levels before getting back in. One of my posts from a while back was about stop playing when you've won the game but if SPY drops another 20-30% drop from these levels I think the risk to reward ratio is starting to look pretty attractive and I would start playing again.

brewer12345 03-22-2020 05:54 PM

Sacks of wheat and pearled barley, a bunch of powdered milk, and some cans of dried onions. Oh, and have a few pounds of black powder too.

Seriously, let things calm down first. Lots of potential to get hurt here. I suppose if we see s and p at 1500 I will not be able to resist, but it would be better to fi d the bottom.

aja8888 03-22-2020 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 (Post 2394533)

Seriously, let things calm down first. Lots of potential to get hurt here. I suppose if we see s and p at 1500 I will not be able to resist, but it would be better to fi d the bottom.

This is some good advice here.

Besides the economy crashing side of this, and the slimy, finger-pointing politicians at war with each other, the "market" can go down a lot farther. And it could take a very long time to recover.

BeachOrCity 03-22-2020 07:13 PM

Its SO EASY to wait right now......

People are psychologically waiting (including me)......

I won't be able to call the bottom better than anybody. But I KNOW we are not there yet.

luckydude 03-22-2020 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dash man (Post 2392147)
Okay, I decided today to start putting some of my money back to work. This morning I purchased shares of C, CMG, MAR and V.
Is anybody else dipping their toe in and if so, what are you buying?

Just bought a top-of-the-line ASUS gaming laptop and the Doom Eternal game. My kids' school is cancelled until further notice and we're stuck at home due to "stay at home" order, so the kids and I will be spending a lot of quality time together blasting aliens in the virtual world (and forgetting about the market)...

Lucky Dude

luckydude 03-22-2020 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliKid (Post 2394108)
I think it will be a lot longer than a few months. At this point the properties can be sold and returned to single family use. Values are still up at this point. It's not like 2008-2010 when prices had dropped so severely. In fact, in many markets I own in we are just back to the 2005-2006 peaks. Lots of the airBnB types (short term rentals or STRs) were bought between 2010 and the present so most have equity if they sell.

Now, actual commercial properties might be different. I wouldn't want to own a retail strip center right about now. Even people that own multi-family buildings are worried as they don't know if people are going to pay the rent on the 1st. Time will tell.

In all, I think it will be a long while before there are incredible buying opportunities in real estate. Just my two cents....

DW and I had been thinking about getting into multi-family real estate, but the increasingly onerous laws boosting tenant rights (at the expense of landlords') as well as rent control measures here in Cal put us off. So we're sticking to ag real estate. Just sold a good-sized farm for a nice profit. Given all the food hoarding on account of the pandemic, we don't expect ag real estate to take a dive unlike equity, but we're on the lookout for a good deal to do the 1031 exchange.

Lucky Dude

unclemick 03-22-2020 09:58 PM

Small amounts of VT (total world stock index) over the next 12 to 18 months. Out of my over 70 1/2 RMD extra money we are not now spending for expenses.

heh heh heh - or if a good buy on a used tractor (diesel) pops up. :coolsmiley: And yes I may try to take it with me via a trust or foundation.

Cayman 03-22-2020 11:55 PM

We're not there yet. We're a long way from "there"
Patience grasshopper

harley 03-23-2020 12:02 AM

Not really buying other than a few gambles in a Roth gambling fund. But I do think I'm going to continue converting tIRA to Roth during all of this. I've got the cash to pay the taxes, so this could be a good opportunity to move large numbers of shares of VTI with a lower tax consequence.

ckelly78z 03-23-2020 04:54 AM

I have bought into some pharma stocks that look promising IBIO is a company that can quickly put a new Covid19 vaccine into production using fastpharming where they use a plant base rather than eggs, which lowers the time frame from months down to weeks.

I am also watching AYTU, a company that is providing a blood test Covid19 testing kit that gives results in 2-10 minutes, and is non invasive (unlike the highly touted 45 minute swab test).

Both of these stocks look to go parabolic when big news occurs.

wrigley 03-23-2020 05:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 48Fire (Post 2392483)
Even my wife is now interested in buying bargain stocks now :laugh: She is thinking Southwest, P & G, and I am thinking Disney. I think there is more bottom to the market, but who knows. If states start shutting down for 2 months, like California, this is going to be really ugly for a long time.

Bought DIS last week when it hit $80 a share. If Disney doesn't come back, the world is going to end! :)

Looking at RCL Royal Caribbean. Just haven't jumped yet. The cruise line industry at this time is a little scary.

Mike

atmsmshr 03-23-2020 05:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cayman (Post 2394729)
We're not there yet. We're a long way from "there"
Patience grasshopper

Yup

As far as Cruise Line Industry - some might go bankrupt and wipeout shareholders. What government is going to bail them out and why? Panama and Bahama flagged vessels bailed out by USA? I am against bailing them out.

racy 03-23-2020 05:25 AM

I use +/- 20% re-balancing bands on each mutual fund in our portfolio. The Sm Cap band tripped so I brought it back up to a little above it's minimum. Going to see how my Investment Policy Statement works...

audreyh1 03-23-2020 05:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David1961 (Post 2392804)
You mean you are selling some of your actively managed mutual funds to take these capital losses and putting the money into index funds? That is a great idea. Just want to make sure I understand. Even at the market peak, my cost basis would not have generated as much capital gains as I thought, since I pay taxes on the distributions each year.

Yes. The worst culprit active funds with several years largish cap gains distributions (which kept reducing my unrealized cap gains) now have unrealized cap losses, so I am harvesting that and buying corresponding index fund.

tdv2 03-23-2020 08:13 AM

Not buying but wholesale unleaded gas looks pretty cheap at $0.625 / gallon.

https://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/RB_.html

GreenEggs 03-23-2020 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrfeh (Post 2394370)
Please read this before you do anything:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogl...g_start-up_kit


What does that have to do with individual stocks?

And how much cash would I have on hand if I'd followed their "load up on index funds & bonds and stay the course, no matter what comes"?

I'm seeing a lot of regrets here from folks who decided to ride this to the bottom. :frown:

BreathFree 03-23-2020 08:48 AM

I'm stuck at home and bored, so I've been gambling with 5% of my portfolio, buying on big down days and selling on the next up day. >:D It makes me feel like I am doing something, but any gains are absolutely dwarfed by my retirement portfolio losses. I still haven't re-balanced my portfolio or sold any stock that I held prior to the crash.

BeachOrCity 03-23-2020 09:10 AM

My personal opinion is any bargains right now are in individual stocks, NOT the market as a whole. Be careful folks. The market is trading in the high teens PE based on 2019 earnings. Maybe 2021 will bring back those earnings? Maybe not? Doubt they could be higher.
Not exactly cheap.

Fermion 03-23-2020 10:20 AM

I am having to really hold myself back this morning from buying Merck at $67.50.

Dang that is cheap. I am going to watch it closely and pounce when we get the big unemployment figures if it drops to the low $60s.

Gatordoc50 03-23-2020 01:55 PM

I am nibbling a bit by buying the whole market. I have some cash from a house sale that I was looking for an opportunity to buy in. I have changed my buy in points as I now believe we could go very low.

audreyh1 03-23-2020 03:45 PM

Of course my small cap and international funds are just getting killed!

BreathFree 03-23-2020 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 2395303)
Of course my small cap and international funds are just getting killed!

I rebalanced in both today. A very small amount. Small Cap Value and international are a regular part of my portfolio,

BreathFree 03-23-2020 05:21 PM

Same here. I sold real estate last year and couldn't bring myself to put the proceeds in the market at all time highs so decided to wait for a pullback. I was supposed to invest it at s&p 2500, but it dropped so fast I waited. I just bought 100k in spy today at 222.80 hoping to sell it on a pop if stimulus bill passed. I may just keep it, it brings my AA back in line. I still have a substantial amount of cash left to put to work but could definitely see this market go lower.

Pointby2 03-23-2020 05:32 PM

I've dabbled a bit. Picked up some SO for the dividend. It continued to fall. Also bought some VCV, closed end CA bond fund now with a tax free dividend over 5%. Couldn't resist.

brewer12345 03-23-2020 06:18 PM

Still in cash. I bought some short term quality corporates which rose today, but I don't think prices are low enough in equities. We are getting there though.

MuirWannabe 03-23-2020 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 (Post 2395394)
Still in cash. I bought some short term quality corporates which rose today, but I don't think prices are low enough in equities. We are getting there though.


Honestly, youíre last sentence brings me some good feelings. You predicted much of this so early on. I know youíre no magical genius. But dang, you nailed this. So, Iím hoping youíre last sentence is equally prescient.

brewer12345 03-23-2020 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MuirWannabe (Post 2395402)
Honestly, youíre last sentence brings me some good feelings. You predicted much of this so early on. I know youíre no magical genius. But dang, you nailed this. So, Iím hoping youíre last sentence is equally prescient.

We are closer to the bottom than we were a month ago!

Actually, what I was thinking was that I had to talk a friend's 80YO mom off the ledge. This is a woman who holds individual equities for decades and I had to browbeat to get her to diversify a giant position in a single stock. If she is thinking about selling, there aren't many sellers left. Now we just need to find the bottom and test it a few times.

W2R 03-23-2020 10:00 PM

I am one of those boring old index fund buy-and-holders. I don't market time but I *do* rebalance, every January plus also when things get badly out of whack.

The latter applies.

I just noticed that my AA had gone from the desired 42:58, to 35:65. :eek: So, I just forced myself to rebalance by:

(1) selling VBTLX (Total Bond Market), and
(2) buying VTSAX (Total Stock Market) and VWIAX (Wellesley)

I just couldn't bring myself to plow more money into my international fund, VFWAX (FTSE All-World Ex-US Index Fund), which like some other international funds is getting hit pretty hard. If I was perfect I would have put money there too but I am not. Maybe in a few days.

gcgang 03-23-2020 10:46 PM

Limit order on BRK.B filled at $164. Got 2x in at $137. Closed at $162 today.

atmsmshr 03-24-2020 03:27 AM

The dollar has appreciated a lot against other currencies during this pandemic. Other nations seem to be lapping up the dollars being printed by the Fed. This currency trade on top of the foreign markets really hurts international positions. IMHO, setting up a tilt in international will bounce back a bit bigger than the USA indices - sometime in the future.

Small and medium business don't have the cash reserves or borrowing power like the bigger S&P500 or NASDAQ, so they are hit harder and faster than the big boys. The midcaps indices are suffering. IMHO - if individual states governments keep up quarantine in a few states (like New York and New Jersey) - indices like the Russel 2000 will bounce back more slowly than the big indices - and call ill afford the low interest loans that will be offered.

Winemaker 03-24-2020 05:22 AM

I'm buying hotel cumulative preferreds, and CEM. I believe this is all short lived.

bmcgonig 03-24-2020 06:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 2395537)
I'm buying hotel cumulative preferreds, and CEM. I believe this is all short lived.

That's brave [emoji4]. Hopefully you're right.

Clone 03-24-2020 06:51 AM

Somewhat related- Is there a source for the S&P close each day? Something that I could use as a lookup for charting portfolio performance vs S&P?

ESRwannabe 03-24-2020 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 2395537)
I'm buying hotel cumulative preferreds, and CEM. I believe this is all short lived.


IMHO I think most of the US will be going back to work in the next two-three weeks. COVID-19 peaked in 43 days in S. Korea and Italy. US is 14 days behind.

Fermion 03-24-2020 08:35 AM

Geez, time to buy was Monday. Market up 8% right now.

REWahoo 03-24-2020 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion (Post 2395657)
Geez, time to buy was Monday. Market up 8% right now.

My guess is you'll have another chance or two to "buy low".

COcheesehead 03-24-2020 08:38 AM

I've been picking up short duration, quality munis. The yields are at levels I haven't seen in a long time for bonds maturing in 3 months to 2 years. 3x-4x CD rates.

COcheesehead 03-24-2020 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo (Post 2395659)
My guess is you'll have another chance or two to "buy low".

Agree, there is plenty of time to buy equities. Even if you miss the first 10% move, which may identify the up tread, there is still much upside after that.

foxfirev5 03-24-2020 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo (Post 2395659)
My guess is you'll have another chance or two to "buy low".

Mine too. I've got alerts set with 5% intervals from -35% to -50%. If they hit I'll buy. If not I'll be grateful it wasn't that bad after all. In either case it looks like my rising equity glide path is down the road quite a bit.

hulurt1 03-24-2020 08:49 AM

2000 facebook

BreathFree 03-24-2020 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ESRwannabe (Post 2395569)
IMHO I think most of the US will be going back to work in the next two-three weeks. COVID-19 peaked in 43 days in S. Korea and Italy. US is 14 days behind.

I don't understand this logic. With the virus now in every state, and contagious before showing symptoms, and we can't completely isolate everyone due to workers in grocery stores, gas stations, hospitals, delivery ect.. Why wouldn't the number of infected explode once the isolated are released into the currently infected working population? It seems to me, this virus will survive until there is enough immunity in the population to starve if off. Am I missing something in this line of thinking?

BreathFree 03-24-2020 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BreathFree (Post 2395362)
I just bought 100k in spy today at 222.80 hoping to sell it on a pop if stimulus bill passed. .

I just sold the spy 6% gain. Now if I can just do this 37 more times Ill be back to even. LOL!

I'm still holding my original portfolio. I would wager this will see new lows, so I am not making any permanent additions to the stock side of my portfolio. If I am wrong, then I will ride it right back up to where we started, which sounds good to me. Re-balancing is hard.

garyt 03-24-2020 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack (Post 2392175)
I just assumed the four you listed were individual stocks.

And not looking for a debate, but I am curious why you think now is a good time if youíre willing to share? Donít know where the markets are going but it seems weíre far from the end of the underlying event(s)?

It seems the tide is changing from saving people to save the economy. Things could be changing in the next few weeks in that regard. Saw the (I believe) Texas Lt. Governor saying he believes most seniors would risk death for the sake of their grandchildren having a good future. When you hear people saying that in public, the tide may be turning. Trump seems to be hinting that also.

REWahoo 03-24-2020 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garyt (Post 2395688)
Saw the (I believe) Texas Lt. Governor saying he believes most seniors would risk death for the sake of their grandchildren having a good future.

As a Texan and a grandparent, my response to Dan Patrick's comment he's willing to die to improve the economy for his grandchildren is - you go first. :)

garyt 03-24-2020 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliKid (Post 2394083)
I have not heard of the company but just looked them up. Looks interesting. They seem to be in a good space (medical and senior housing) which should be good for a long time. Without knowing anything I try to guess why it dropped so much more than the market as a whole!? If anything it seems medical should be good. You have any insight or thoughts on it?

I would not touch most REITs at this time. With forced shutdowns lots of places won't be able to pay their lease. Not good. Will try to find a good article I just read on the subject.

garyt 03-24-2020 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo (Post 2395690)
As a Texan and a grandparent, my response to Dan Patrick's comment he's willing to die to improve the economy for his grandchildren is - you go first. :)

Well he did say he is 70 (again, I believe would have to go back and check) so at least he's in the at risk age group. It would be way worse to hear some 30 something espousing this.

Dash man 03-24-2020 02:11 PM

Yesterday I nibbled and bought some additional AAPL, V, C and SDY. They did well today. I still have some dry powder, so will wait to see how things play out.

aja8888 03-24-2020 02:15 PM

I re-started a position in SCHB in my IRA that I sold a month ago. If the market gets a rise tomorrow, I will add to it.

Mr._Graybeard 03-24-2020 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead (Post 2395664)
I've been picking up short duration, quality munis. The yields are at levels I haven't seen in a long time for bonds maturing in 3 months to 2 years. 3x-4x CD rates.

Yes, I'm dipping into that market too. A rated, 4% yield, federal tax exempt. Going out a little longer than you, though, to 2024-2026.

BoodaGazelle 03-24-2020 03:24 PM

I bought CVX at 59... I donít think I will lose on it.

CyPlainsDrifter 03-24-2020 03:56 PM

While I watched my 401K going down in flames.... it will recover :) I bought several near or at their lows. Already looking good on the balance sheet after today with plenty of upside left. I really intend to play these long. I played with money it wouldn't hurt much to lose and picked up F, FCAU, CZR, ALK, and NEE.

W2R 03-24-2020 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 2395493)
I just noticed that my AA had gone from the desired 42:58, to 35:65. :eek: So, I just forced myself to rebalance

Dow up 2113 points today, before Vanguard completed my transactions, of course!

Oh well. On the bright side, I think I have finally perfected the "Reverse Wheee!!!". :clap: :laugh: :dance:

DougJohnson 03-24-2020 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DallasGuy (Post 2392240)
Unless you're an active trader and buying and selling stocks to make short term profits, I just don't understand the wisdom of buying at this moment for the long term. Unless you have a crystal ball or you're attempting to time a bottom, wouldn't it be more wise to wait to see how this coronavirus thing plays out? My gut feel is that even with the government bailouts, we're headed for a big recession or worse, depression. I'm not criticizing your decisions to buy just trying to understand your logic.

Because, by the time we know how it plays out, it will be too late. The market will know too and have priced it in. Right now, the market is pricing in disaster. That's the time to start shopping and, maybe, buying. So I've been buying slowly -- companies with strong balance sheets that are likely to weather the year to 18 month storm we have just started. I've got about 20% of my investible cash in.

-- Doug


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