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-   -   Time to buy? What are you buying? (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/time-to-buy-what-are-you-buying-102766.html)

GreenEggs 03-22-2020 09:51 AM

I've been studying the charts, screeners, insider trading lists, & the news for everything that appears interesting. Then I ran them all through the portfolio visualizer to see how they performed over various timeframes. It's very interesting to see how they compare. Some of the popular FANG stocks weren't as impressive as I'd have assumed.

I'm a beginner at this, so I've just been guessing about how to utilize online data. What info do most of you folks consider important when choosing long-term stocks?

CaliKid 03-22-2020 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ownyourfuture (Post 2392283)
I've been adding National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) REIT
It was 90$ less than a month ago & trading at $40 today.
(no, it didn't split)

I have not heard of the company but just looked them up. Looks interesting. They seem to be in a good space (medical and senior housing) which should be good for a long time. Without knowing anything I try to guess why it dropped so much more than the market as a whole!? If anything it seems medical should be good. You have any insight or thoughts on it?

CaliKid 03-22-2020 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calmloki (Post 2392187)
Think there will be a glut of commercial property on the market in a few months. Ever had the desire to own a nice motel? I've read the suggestion that many of the folks who thought airBnB places would cover the mortgage and expenses and give a nice cash on cash return are going to be in the hurts as travel stays drop. I'm wondering,morbidly, about how many people are going to tough it out too long and croak it in their homes. Images of mummified little old couples in their little old homes.

I think it will be a lot longer than a few months. At this point the properties can be sold and returned to single family use. Values are still up at this point. It's not like 2008-2010 when prices had dropped so severely. In fact, in many markets I own in we are just back to the 2005-2006 peaks. Lots of the airBnB types (short term rentals or STRs) were bought between 2010 and the present so most have equity if they sell.

Now, actual commercial properties might be different. I wouldn't want to own a retail strip center right about now. Even people that own multi-family buildings are worried as they don't know if people are going to pay the rent on the 1st. Time will tell.

In all, I think it will be a long while before there are incredible buying opportunities in real estate. Just my two cents....

11522914 03-22-2020 11:44 AM

Puts are very expensive. So I just recently started selling cash covered puts in my IRAs. Usually I sell at a strike price 10 to 20% below the stock price. That way if the stock goes up I lose the opportunity but keep the expensive put premium. If not I just bought the stock cheaper.

Recently sold puts on T, XLE and JETS.

Ended up getting T at 29 (had sold my position recently at $37.25) and JETS at 13.

Had another lower strike JETS and XLE puts expire so I got to keep the expensive premium.

Haven't sold puts on SPY but most likely will this week. I'm currently at ~9% equities so this is how I will slowly get up to 35% - which is my goal. It's best to sell them on a strong down day as they get ridiculously expensive. But even on recent up days they still are quite expensive.

mrfeh 03-22-2020 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GreenEggs (Post 2394072)

I'm a beginner at this, so I've just been guessing about how to utilize online data. What info do most of you folks consider important when choosing long-term stocks?

Please read this before you do anything:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogl...g_start-up_kit

accountingsucks 03-22-2020 04:49 PM

Futures limit down again. I think we see 20% drop tomorrow

ESRwannabe 03-22-2020 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dash man (Post 2392147)
Okay, I decided today to start putting some of my money back to work. This morning I purchased shares of C, CMG, MAR and V.
Is anybody else dipping their toe in and if so, what are you buying?


So far I have made purchases of:

WFC, BAC, C, JPM, T, MPC, KMI

(*) I figure the major banks are actually some of the safest companies to own this time and that the Fed has their back. The banks have very strong balance sheets. IMHO the government is going to prevent as many people from defaulting on loans as possible and give free money to people to pay their bills.

(*) With AT&T I believe they will be ok as people will hold onto their cell phones, and internet access for as long as possible. Also people that have money for it, will gladly pay for HBO, WarnerBrothers, etc content while they are stuck at home with nothing to do. T does have a lot of debt, but they paid off like $30 billion in 2019. Their free cash flow is beefy. I think the come out of this ok.

(*) I make my case for owning MPC over on this thread:
https://www.early-retirement.org/for...iz-102744.html
For similar reasons I have a small position started in KMI.

Luckily for me I work in infrastructure IT and my employer actually needs my skills more than ever with everyone working at home now. Also I work for a very stable employer anyway. So I am not worried about my w-2 income. So, I will be pouring every cent I can into more stocks.

P.S. Also I could survive off of my dividend income from my taxable account if I had to (roughly $22k). Assuming of course that dividends are not cut, which I feel pretty confident none will be. Might even get some raises.

FIREd_2015 03-22-2020 05:47 PM

I've been sitting in cash/short term securities the last several years watching the market reach one all time high after another. I've been following the margin data on finra.org and latest data as of the end of Feb is at $545.1 billion. That's a lot of borrowed money and I think there are a lot of margin calls yet to come. I've dusted off Metastock and started charting SPY, SSO and USO. I'm waiting for another 20-30% drop from these levels before getting back in. One of my posts from a while back was about stop playing when you've won the game but if SPY drops another 20-30% drop from these levels I think the risk to reward ratio is starting to look pretty attractive and I would start playing again.

brewer12345 03-22-2020 05:54 PM

Sacks of wheat and pearled barley, a bunch of powdered milk, and some cans of dried onions. Oh, and have a few pounds of black powder too.

Seriously, let things calm down first. Lots of potential to get hurt here. I suppose if we see s and p at 1500 I will not be able to resist, but it would be better to fi d the bottom.

aja8888 03-22-2020 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 (Post 2394533)

Seriously, let things calm down first. Lots of potential to get hurt here. I suppose if we see s and p at 1500 I will not be able to resist, but it would be better to fi d the bottom.

This is some good advice here.

Besides the economy crashing side of this, and the slimy, finger-pointing politicians at war with each other, the "market" can go down a lot farther. And it could take a very long time to recover.

BeachOrCity 03-22-2020 07:13 PM

Its SO EASY to wait right now......

People are psychologically waiting (including me)......

I won't be able to call the bottom better than anybody. But I KNOW we are not there yet.

luckydude 03-22-2020 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dash man (Post 2392147)
Okay, I decided today to start putting some of my money back to work. This morning I purchased shares of C, CMG, MAR and V.
Is anybody else dipping their toe in and if so, what are you buying?

Just bought a top-of-the-line ASUS gaming laptop and the Doom Eternal game. My kids' school is cancelled until further notice and we're stuck at home due to "stay at home" order, so the kids and I will be spending a lot of quality time together blasting aliens in the virtual world (and forgetting about the market)...

Lucky Dude

luckydude 03-22-2020 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliKid (Post 2394108)
I think it will be a lot longer than a few months. At this point the properties can be sold and returned to single family use. Values are still up at this point. It's not like 2008-2010 when prices had dropped so severely. In fact, in many markets I own in we are just back to the 2005-2006 peaks. Lots of the airBnB types (short term rentals or STRs) were bought between 2010 and the present so most have equity if they sell.

Now, actual commercial properties might be different. I wouldn't want to own a retail strip center right about now. Even people that own multi-family buildings are worried as they don't know if people are going to pay the rent on the 1st. Time will tell.

In all, I think it will be a long while before there are incredible buying opportunities in real estate. Just my two cents....

DW and I had been thinking about getting into multi-family real estate, but the increasingly onerous laws boosting tenant rights (at the expense of landlords') as well as rent control measures here in Cal put us off. So we're sticking to ag real estate. Just sold a good-sized farm for a nice profit. Given all the food hoarding on account of the pandemic, we don't expect ag real estate to take a dive unlike equity, but we're on the lookout for a good deal to do the 1031 exchange.

Lucky Dude

unclemick 03-22-2020 09:58 PM

Small amounts of VT (total world stock index) over the next 12 to 18 months. Out of my over 70 1/2 RMD extra money we are not now spending for expenses.

heh heh heh - or if a good buy on a used tractor (diesel) pops up. :coolsmiley: And yes I may try to take it with me via a trust or foundation.

Cayman 03-22-2020 11:55 PM

We're not there yet. We're a long way from "there"
Patience grasshopper

harley 03-23-2020 12:02 AM

Not really buying other than a few gambles in a Roth gambling fund. But I do think I'm going to continue converting tIRA to Roth during all of this. I've got the cash to pay the taxes, so this could be a good opportunity to move large numbers of shares of VTI with a lower tax consequence.

ckelly78z 03-23-2020 04:54 AM

I have bought into some pharma stocks that look promising IBIO is a company that can quickly put a new Covid19 vaccine into production using fastpharming where they use a plant base rather than eggs, which lowers the time frame from months down to weeks.

I am also watching AYTU, a company that is providing a blood test Covid19 testing kit that gives results in 2-10 minutes, and is non invasive (unlike the highly touted 45 minute swab test).

Both of these stocks look to go parabolic when big news occurs.

wrigley 03-23-2020 05:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 48Fire (Post 2392483)
Even my wife is now interested in buying bargain stocks now :laugh: She is thinking Southwest, P & G, and I am thinking Disney. I think there is more bottom to the market, but who knows. If states start shutting down for 2 months, like California, this is going to be really ugly for a long time.

Bought DIS last week when it hit $80 a share. If Disney doesn't come back, the world is going to end! :)

Looking at RCL Royal Caribbean. Just haven't jumped yet. The cruise line industry at this time is a little scary.

Mike

atmsmshr 03-23-2020 05:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cayman (Post 2394729)
We're not there yet. We're a long way from "there"
Patience grasshopper

Yup

As far as Cruise Line Industry - some might go bankrupt and wipeout shareholders. What government is going to bail them out and why? Panama and Bahama flagged vessels bailed out by USA? I am against bailing them out.

racy 03-23-2020 05:25 AM

I use +/- 20% re-balancing bands on each mutual fund in our portfolio. The Sm Cap band tripped so I brought it back up to a little above it's minimum. Going to see how my Investment Policy Statement works...


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