Here’s Hoping the Peak is Apr 15!

[Midpack]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I’d do a poll, but 99% of us would be WAGing including me. The peak for my state is now Apr 13 moved up from Apr 23. No idea, but I hope so.

The sooner we restart the economy the better obviously, that won’t be just after the peak, but sometime thereafter. I hope our leaders are also thinking about how to restart the economy.

Fewer and fewer employees will find their way back to former employers if this goes too long - the European model of all the $ relief going to employers to keep paying employees may prove the better approach (assuming they can enforce same as planned).

And it’ll be interesting to see if our leaders guide us, or we take matters into our own hands regarding economic activity...

 

[dd564]

Seems like the did a realignment on several states over the last day or so.
Various states had their peak date move and Louisiana they now show as past peak.
First of any I've seen.

 

[dd564]

For USA, last week (4/3), projected number of ICU beds needed at peak was just shy of 50k.
Ventilators needed: 31,782

ICU bed peak need now at: 29,210
Ventilators needed: 24,828

That's a 21% drop in ventilators.

 

[Midpack]

I see they’re projecting an Apr 8 peak for NY, sure hope so.

 

[JoeWras]

The sooner we restart the economy the better obviously, that won’t be just after the peak, but sometime thereafter. I hope our leaders are also thinking about how to restart the economy.

They are, but they don't agree on approach. Prepare for contentious politics. It is already starting. But as someone else said, maybe that's a good sign if we have time for politics.

Seems like the did a realignment on several states over the last day or so.
Various states had their peak date move and Louisiana they now show as past peak.
First of any I've seen.

Yes, they loaded new data into the model late yesterday.

 

[Just_Steve]

I see they’re projecting an Apr 8 peak for NY, sure hope so.

Thanks for that info, some good news.

 

[gwraigty]

And it’ll be interesting to see if our leaders guide us, or we take matters into our own hands regarding economic activity...

I don't know how we'd take matters into our own hands. Our state is actively going after non-essential businesses who insist on remaining open. They forced Hobby Lobby to shut down.

 

[Bigdawg]

12 days to peak in my neck of the woods. My guess is less affected areas (North Dakota) start ramping up their economies, then the dominos will fall. Full country totally back to work by Memorial Day.

 

[dd564]

My state's peak (MN) for ventilators is now dropped from 426 down to 192.
Peak date is still around 4/23.

 

[aaronc879]

I'm not sure I believe the charts but if they are accurate we may be able to open all businesses by May 1st and no longer restrict travel. That would be a faster return than I expected and should get things back to normal pretty quick.

 

[gwraigty]

Our peak is projected to be April 12th. Yet our state health director keeps saying mid-May and we'll still be dealing with this significantly into June. On that general note, I don't think that reaching the peak means that everything's going to be back open for business soon in any state.

There's so much talk about mass testing for antibodies to see who is "safe" to go back to work. Yet they're short on details of the logistics of that. Everything I can dig up on Google says that if you already had the coronavirus, you get to go back to work. If you didn't already have it, you can't go back to work. At some point, there has to be a plan for the people who didn't have coronavirus to get back to work, too.

 

[JoeWras]

I'm not sure I believe the charts but if they are accurate we may be able to open all businesses by May 1st and no longer restrict travel. That would be a faster return than I expected and should get things back to normal pretty quick.

Hold the phone. There's bound to be a phase in of what is allowed and what isn't. Don't expect social distancing and masks to go away either.

 

[JoeWras]

Everything I can dig up on Google says that if you already had the coronavirus, you get to go back to work. If you didn't already have it, you can't go back to work. At some point, there has to be a plan for the people who didn't have coronavirus to get back to work, too.

Oh boy, that's opening up some really interesting future legal challenges.

 

[gwraigty]

Hold the phone. There's bound to be a phase in of what is allowed and what isn't. Don't expect social distancing and masks to go away either.

+1

Our governor didn't shut down everything all at once. I don't expect him to allow everything to open up all at once. I think it'll take longer to get back to normal because of the need to make sure that curve stays flattened. I don't see this boding well for the future of our amusement parks this summer. Can you imagine the spread from them, especially those that get out-of-state visitors?

 

[gwraigty]

Oh boy, that's opening up some really interesting future legal challenges.

Can you imagine trying to enforce that? A business that reopens needs its staff back. The state says you can only let back the people who tested positive for the antibodies. Fax the new handy-dandy confirmed coronavirus antibody certificate to...

 

[W2R]

Seems like the did a realignment on several states over the last day or so.
Various states had their peak date move and Louisiana they now show as past peak.
First of any I've seen.

Yes, they gave Louisiana's peak as April 1st.

In Louisiana,
April 1st: 6,424 cases and 273 people had died.
April 2nd: 9,150 cases and 310 people had died.
April 3rd: 10,297 cases and 370 people had died.
April 4th: 12,496 cases and 409 people had died.
April 5th: 13,010 cases and 477 people had died.
April 6th: 14,867 cases and 512 people have died.

They regard our situation as a huge improvement. Hovering over any particular date on the graph, it is stated that the values they are graphing are based on their past projections of resource use (not on actual resource use numbers which are now available).

Meanwhile the National Guard has moved in and we have converted the Convention Center and the Sheraton into two huge field hospitals.

The following are graphs of the cases and deaths in Louisiana, that anybody can do from the information available. I don't see this "peak" on April 1st. Oh, but then the peak they refer to is the peak in a graph of their previous projections of resource use, which turned out to be incorrect, not a peak in anything meaningful. Let's all party.

[-]Today's numbers aren't in yet.[/-] Today's numbers just came in and they are now included in the attached graphs.

 

[MRG]

One day's anomalies sure change future predictions. [emoji849]

I hope I am wrong.

 

[Midpack]

Hold the phone. There's bound to be a phase in of what is allowed and what isn't. Don't expect social distancing and masks to go away either.

I hope so. We need to wait (well) past the peak, but I hope we restart the economy by phasing in, not wait until coronavirus is virtually eradicated.

 

[aaronc879]

Hold the phone. There's bound to be a phase in of what is allowed and what isn't. Don't expect social distancing and masks to go away either.

Let most people go back to work but still limit large gatherings like festivals and concerts. Around here there is Country USA, Rock USA, Mile Of Music, Summerfest, Octoberfest. Those kinds of things should be the last things allowed to go back to normal.

 

[Midpack]

Let most people go back to work but still limit large gatherings like festivals and concerts. Around here there is Country USA, Rock USA, Mile Of Music, Summerfest, Octoberfest. Those kinds of things should be the last things allowed to go back to normal.

Sounds like a good place to start. Many people can work 6 feet apart effectively at regular workplaces. And sadly, elderly and those with underlying health issues may have to stay away from work and all other gatherings longer. Cramming large numbers of strangers together like concerts, sports will presumably be the last events to restart.

 

[ivinsfan]

My state's peak (MN) for ventilators is now dropped from 426 down to 192.
Peak date is still around 4/23.

I feel like we locked down pretty early in the game, so I'm hoping our peak comes sooner. We are ranking A for staying at home which should help.

 

[pacergal]

This is assuming full social distancing continues through May.
We don't hit the peak and all is well
Yes, I know we need to get the economy going again, and I am not sure how the leaders plan to do that, but I believe this is going to be around for several months or more, so personal precautions are prudent.

 

[Ready]

Sounds like a good place to start. Many people can work 6 feet apart effectively at regular workplaces. And sadly, elderly and those with underlying health issues may have to stay away from work and all other gatherings longer. Cramming large numbers of strangers together like concerts, sports will presumably be the last events to restart.

I don’t see any way for restaurants to allow people to dine in and still be six feet apart. Most tables are not six feet long, and they are usually no more than two feet apart from each other. And there are too many surfaces being touched by customers over and over again - menus, tables, chairs, salt and pepper shakers, etc.

And I think it’s going to be a long time before massage therapists, physical therapists, and any other workers that requiring physically touching their clients to be reinstated.

My guess is that many of the businesses that have the flexibility to keep six feet apart have already switched to telecommuting and have found a way to stay open anyway.

 

[Doribe]

Why does the Kentucky graph have an unusual shape?

 

[Ready]

California is projected to peak on April 14th. Last count the infections were around 13,000.

In Orange County we have 834 infections, 14 deaths. Pretty low for a county with 3.1 million people. But I keep wondering why. Is it because we started the social distancing early enough, or is it because we just delayed it long enough to move the big wave a few weeks further out.