Sobering interview with top epidemiologist

[omni550]

Dan Buettner of Blue Zones interviews epidemiologist Dr. Osterholm.

"In short, Dr. Osterholm is arguably one of the most dependable, non-political sources for straight answers on what COVID-19 means to us and our world in the immediate future. In his 2017 book, Deadliest Enemy, he correctly foretells a global pandemic and offers the best strategy for fighting it now and avoiding it in the future."

Dr. O is not impressed with the utility of basic cloth masks. Scary potential future death rates too.

https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/c...op-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/


omni

 

[RobbieB]

Of course not, they are full of holes and way more "show" than "go"

Slightly better than nothing.

 

[tmm99]

Omni,

Great article. Thank you.

Dan Buettner of Blue Zones interviews epidemiologist Dr. Osterholm.

"In short, Dr. Osterholm is arguably one of the most dependable, non-political sources for straight answers on what COVID-19 means to us and our world in the immediate future. In his 2017 book, Deadliest Enemy, he correctly foretells a global pandemic and offers the best strategy for fighting it now and avoiding it in the future."

Dr. O is not impressed with the utility of basic cloth masks. Scary potential future death rates too.

https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/c...op-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/


omni

 

[bmcgonig]

Of course not, they are full of holes and way more "show" than "go"

Slightly better than nothing.

Twice as good according to him.

 

[ImThinkin2019]

Omni550 thank you for linking such a ggod article. Dr Osterholm seems like a pragmatic, clear thinker. Very objective. This is the best set of predictions and suggestions I have seen.

I am glad to hear him comment about the preferred leadership style to help us navigate this situation. i would like to see leadership that brings us together. And statements from the leadership that can be believed.

 

[Golden sunsets]

Thank you Omni for this article. It is a scary prediction, but I'd rather know the real risks and likely future, then move blindly forward. I am disappointed by his sober predictions on a vaccine, both in terms of its realistic timeline, as well as the limited likelihood that it will provide a total cure.

 

[athena53]

That's a great read- thanks! I'm always looking for sober, balanced reports from credible experts. In the end, I figure that I'd better use my own brain to make decisions because *I* will bear the consequences of those decisions. Info such as this, including honest admission of what we don't know, helps.

And it confirms my decision to continue my outdoor bicycle rides rather than go back to the gym even though the gym opened yesterday.

 

[Midpack]

Wow. I’ve seen him before on other sites.

We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.

 

[donheff]

Good article but, I would like to hear more about how he thinks we should "thread the needle" between lock down and Katie bar the door open. The two take-aways I got clearly are that I won't get Covid on the bike path and I shouldn't start having inside dinner parties.

 

[11522914]

Omni,

Great article. Thank you.

+1

 

[ElizabethT]

Good article but, I would like to hear more about how he thinks we should "thread the needle" between lock down and Katie bar the door open. The two take-aways I got clearly are that I won't get Covid on the bike path and I shouldn't start having inside dinner parties.

Agree that that would have been nice, but is that really his job? I'm thinking that that is more the job of an economist than a scientist. He's laid out the science, now we all have to figure out what economic cost we are willing to bear while getting to herd immunity.

What I am getting from this article (which I read three times) is that the virus is pretty much unstoppable and people will continue to die from it, so the best we can do is try and manage the pace of infection in order to ensure our health system doesn't collapse under it's weight. So for that reason alone I will continue to physically distance when outdoors, and make any indoor trips fast, and remain on the move while doing so.

 

[ivinsfan]

He's a local product and has always been the doom and gloom man.

Decades back we had a really green vet join our local practice. I soon realized that no matter what problem the cow had he would put on his bad news face and act as though we'd be lucky if she didn't die. Cows are pretty tough and we took very good care of our cows and of course 99% of the time the sick cow lived. The young vet had it covered both ways if the cow lived he looked like the worlds best vet and if she died, well he warn us it might happen.

Dr O loves to see his name in print....he's a source but IMO one of many and not the best ever as the Blue Zones dude proclaims. In this article he has put together a lot of general stats.

My big issue is with the death number he put out there. I don't think that number is helpful. I was pretty much OK with the advice and general recap until he started talking numbers. I have to disagree with his comment about it being"bad" if it disappears for awhile..we can still work on a vaccine if it goes dormant and prepare for a possible new wave.

 

[Sunset]

I think his numbers are too high.
I'm guessing we will only have 350,000 -> 500,000 deaths in 18 months if no vaccine.

Reasoning being, the high rate earlier was a lot of nursing home deaths, and those have a limited number as people die off, learn from mistakes, and avoid those places.

Additionally, while the public is slow to adapt, they will pay attention as the number keeps rising and take better precautions (mask, distance, etc).

As for the rest of his statements, I liked how he pointed out strongly the danger of excess weight... something I have to work harder on

 

[Gumby]

... I have to disagree with his comment about it being"bad" if it disappears for awhile..we can still work on a vaccine if it goes dormant and prepare for a possible new wave.

The problem with the disease going "dormant" is that you don't know if it will come back, and that removes the financial incentive to develop a vaccine. That is my understanding as to why we never got a SARS vaccine. The virus died out before they completed clinical trials and no one wanted to continue to spend big money to develop the vaccine.

 

[ivinsfan]

The problem with the disease going "dormant" is that you don't know if it will come back, and that removes the financial incentive to develop a vaccine. That is my understanding as to why we never got a SARS vaccine. The virus died out before they completed clinical trials and no one wanted to continue to spend big money to develop the vaccine.

In this case I think government funding would continue due to the nature of this outbreak. The number of SARS cases is dwarfed by what is happening with COVID.....

 

[Helen]

My big issue is with the death number he put out there. I don't think that number is helpful. I was pretty much OK with the advice and general recap until he started talking numbers. I have to disagree with his comment about it being"bad" if it disappears for awhile..we can still work on a vaccine if it goes dormant and prepare for a possible new wave.

From the article:

My worst-case scenario is that we see it suddenly start to disappear from this country right now. And people say what, how could that be worst case? That’s the worst because if that happens, it means that it’s not disappearing due to human behavior or anything we’ve put in place to reduce transmission. That would tell me that this is now acting like a flu virus even though it is a coronavirus. If it looks like a pandemic flu virus, then that would suggest that in late summer or early fall we could have a very significant wave of activity that would overwhelm society as we know it, healthcare wise and otherwise. That would be really a very unfortunate situation.

We can still work on a vaccine under this scenario, but 1. we aren't in control of the virus from behavioral changes and 2. the second wave will be devastating - how can we prepare for that?

If the flu virus goes semi dormant due to higher temperatures then it doesn't appear to be the same with the corona as evidenced by the recent surge in AZ.

 

[Montecfo]

Omni550 thank you for linking such a ggod article. Dr Osterholm seems like a pragmatic, clear thinker. Very objective. This is the best set of predictions and suggestions I have seen.

I am glad to hear him comment about the preferred leadership style to help us navigate this situation. i would like to see leadership that brings us together. And statements from the leadership that can be believed.

Many of the opinions we have gotten from medical experts have been incorrect. I find this interesting but not particularly authoritative.

And medical experts' opinions on politics are certainly non-authoritative.

The article was interesting but broke no new ground in my opinion.

 

[mckittri2000]

How many times have the experts been wrong? There is no right answer for this virus because nobody quite knows what they are dealing with. Even a vaccine is not going to protect everyone (like the annual flu vaccine).

 

[athena53]

I think his numbers are too high.
I'm guessing we will only have 350,000 -> 500,000 deaths in 18 months if no vaccine.

Reasoning being, the high rate earlier was a lot of nursing home deaths, and those have a limited number as people die off, learn from mistakes, and avoid those places.

I'm following the stats in Johnson County, KS and there are 358 LTC cases out of 1,061 total. I agree that LTC facilities are a serious concern but the incidence of COVID-19 in that population doesn't necessarily reflect risk to the general population.

 

[Chuckanut]

Thanks. It is always good to get another opinion from somebody who has experience in the field.

 

[Chuckanut]

After reading I have come to the conclusion to stay the course. I will not live in Fear, nor will I live Foolishly.

Here are the main points. Some are what most of us already knew.

Here are the highlights of our conversation. But if you really want to understand this disease, read the whole interview. This disease may be the biggest event of our lifetimes.

• 3 months ago, COVID-19 was not even in the top 75 causes of death in this country. Much of the last month, it was the #1 cause of death in this country. This is more remarkable than the 1918 Flu pandemic.
• There is no scientific indication Covid-19 will disappear of its own accord.
• If you’re under age 55, obesity is the #1 risk factor. So, eating the right diet, getting physical activity, and managing stress are some of the most important things you can do to protect yourself from the disease.
• One of the best things we can do for our aging parents is to get them out into the fresh air, while maintaining physical (not social) distancing.
• Wearing a cloth mask does not protect you much if you’re in close contact with someone who is COVID-19 contagious. It may give you 20 minutes, instead of 10, to avoid contracting the disease.
• We can expect COVID-19 to infect 60% – 70% of Americans. That’s around 200 million Americans.
• We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.
• There is no guarantee of an effective vaccination and even if we find one, it may only give short term protection.
• Speeding a vaccination into production carries its own risks.
• The darkest days are still ahead of us. We need moral leadership, the command leadership that doesn’t minimize what’s before us but allows everyone to see that we’re going to get through it.

 

[Moemg]

Thanks for a great article.

 

[audreyh1]

I think his numbers are too high.
I'm guessing we will only have 350,000 -> 500,000 deaths in 18 months if no vaccine.

Reasoning being, the high rate earlier was a lot of nursing home deaths, and those have a limited number as people die off, learn from mistakes, and avoid those places.

Additionally, while the public is slow to adapt, they will pay attention as the number keeps rising and take better precautions (mask, distance, etc).

There are still a huge number of elder homes/nursing homes that have NOT been exposed to the virus, so those haven’t been “cleaned out” by any measure, and it’s not just the vulnerable elderly that get infected but their caregivers too and resulting community spread.

 

[ivinsfan]

There are still a huge number of elder homes/nursing homes that have NOT been exposed to the virus, so those haven’t been “cleaned out” by any measure, and it’s not just the vulnerable elderly that get infected but their caregivers too and resulting community spread.

Our big local nursing home has been locked down since the first part of March....no visitors, testing all staff weekly. Right now the home is virus free but many seniors have died from other natural causes. They were cutoff from their families until they were at deaths door and then could only see one person at a time.

The other regular residents are suffering from the lack of normal social gatherings within the home and lack of seeing family. They are confined to their rooms for even meals. Even there interaction with staff is masked so they literally haven't seen a human smile in months.. There is no way anyone is a winner in this situation, it's heartbreaking on all levels.

 

[Amethyst]

At that rate, the demented ones will have forgotten who their family members are, and won't know them when they visit again.

Our big local nursing home has been locked down since the first part of March....no visitors, testing all staff weekly. Right now the home is virus free but many seniors have died from other natural causes. They were cutoff from their families until they were at deaths door and then could only see one person at a time.

The other regular residents are suffering from the lack of normal social gatherings within the home and lack of seeing family. They are confined to their rooms for even meals. Even there interaction with staff is masked so they literally haven't seen a human smile in months.. There is no way anyone is a winner in this situation, it's heartbreaking on all levels.