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-   -   Any stories of portfolio running out? (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f29/any-stories-of-portfolio-running-out-106204.html)

tb001 12-18-2020 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail (Post 2529105)
Interesting.
Could eventually be in a partial version of your situation.
My father at 90 y.o. now needs 24/7 home care. My parents also have a 7 figure portfolio which was being added to each year, but will decrease for the first time next year.
They also do have an LTC plan, but it will only cover 66k yearly and the cost is around 150k yearly.
Ironically, the nursing home coverage is similar.

What is different is I control all their investments, so I can see what the balances and total spending is.
Additionally, they do have an irrevocable trust for some of their monies, so perhaps the monies won't go to zero.

Yes, sounds very similar. DH controls her finances and bills, so he knows the details—I just know he’s worried. She has dementia, but is still ok being at home as long as there is care there, so it’s hard to think of moving her. But 24/7 care gets $$ fast, even when you’re spending very little on anything else.

ncbill 12-18-2020 12:53 PM

Hmmm...I buried a relative last year who was laid off from their job (entire department outsourced) around age 60...cashed in their pension to make it to SS at age 62.

Despite a modest inheritance & me buying out their share of a mountain cabin owned by our extended family they still relied on a HELOC (in addition to the primary mortgage) to make ends meet.

When they died so few liquid funds were left I had to loan their estate enough to payoff both the mortgage/HELOC until the house sold.

However, despite all the above they managed to stay in their home of nearly 40 years until just a few months before their death...still managed to travel out of state a couple of times annually to see grandkids, & kept up with a dozen or so friends locally.

Music Lover 12-18-2020 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ncbill (Post 2529335)
Hmmm...I buried a relative last year who was laid off from their job (entire department outsourced) around age 60...cashed in their pension to make it to SS at age 62.

Despite a modest inheritance & me buying out their share of a mountain cabin owned by our extended family they still relied on a HELOC (in addition to the primary mortgage) to make ends meet.

When they died so few liquid funds were left I had to loan their estate enough to payoff both the mortgage/HELOC until the house sold.

However, despite all the above they managed to stay in their home of nearly 40 years until just a few months before their death...still managed to travel out of state a couple of times annually to see grandkids, & kept up with a dozen or so friends locally.

And that's why some people just don't care about saving...they have enough to get by by their standards. When you try to compare how they live to YOUR standards you can't understand it. But many people in that situation are perfectly content.

I've told the story several times about my friend who couldn't afford to pay his mortgage and had no hope of retiring on a lower income. He sold his house, moved into an apartment, and was debt free for the first time in his life. Within 6 months he leased an $85k vehicle (and has since then has traded up to a more expensive one), and retired early taking an age and years of service penalty. The lease and his rent are about 75% of his monthly income. And he's perfectly happy.

pb4uski 12-18-2020 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail (Post 2529057)
I just say yeah got lucky and landed a job on Wall Street and then usually no follow up.

+1. It's not worth getting into it with them.

I would say something like "Yes, we have been fortunate that we lived below our means and saved regularly as the experts advise and our investments did well so we could retire earlier than many" and leave it at that.

ncbill 12-18-2020 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Music Lover (Post 2529359)
And that's why some people just don't care about saving...they have enough to get by by their standards. When you try to compare how they live to YOUR standards you can't understand it. But many people in that situation are perfectly content.

I've told the story several times about my friend who couldn't afford to pay his mortgage and had no hope of retiring on a lower income. He sold his house, moved into an apartment, and was debt free for the first time in his life. Within 6 months he leased an $85k vehicle (and has since then has traded up to a more expensive one), and retired early taking an age and years of service penalty. The lease and his rent are about 75% of his monthly income. And he's perfectly happy.

Yeah, my relative understood that staying in their home was not sustainable and was open to selling it and moving into an apartment before they got their unexpected terminal diagnosis.

For those interested, their LTC costs were one month in a shared room in an cross-town nursing home (~$8,000) which was awful, then I moved them to a private room in an ALF near me (~4 months @ ~$4,000/month)...on Hospice once institutionalized which covered most needs (medical bed, oxygen concentrator, pain meds)

aja8888 12-18-2020 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bada bing (Post 2529063)
In 2000 ARCO (Atlantic Richfield Company) was broken apart with the majority of assets absorbed by BP. As part of the sale, the employees were offered a generous severance that included "5&5" (5 years tacked onto years of service and onto age for purposes of pension calculations). This coincided with the end of the DotCom bubble, where any idiot with a brokerage account had been making it as a sideline day-trader. It was perfectly natural for quite a few of the ARCO employees to take their 5&5 pension as a lump sum with plans of day trading to an early retirement fortune. I don't know of one single one out of 20 or so I'm familiar with that weren't back at work within 4-5 years. In many cases unable to find work at anywhere near their previous position or income.

The ARCO breakup started in 1985 when I took the initial "package" which was the same (I was in my 40's at the time). At that time, 6,000+ employees took the deal. I went to work elsewhere and did well and collected on the ARCO stuff later on.

RunningBum 12-18-2020 03:12 PM

If I get annoyed enough to respond to a "lucky" comment, I usually say that I made a lot of my luck, or that I put myself in good position to be lucky. I can say a lot to support that if challenged, but I can't recall that I ever have been.

YVRRocketSurgery 12-18-2020 07:38 PM

I really enjoy reading Morgan Housel's writings around the psychology and behavioural aspects of money. One of the topics he's written about a few times and discussed over the last few months while promoting his new book is the impact of luck and chance on success and failure.

In a blogpost, he writes about how it's difficult to quanitify how much luck plays into success and failure. And because it's hard to quantify, it's kind of rude to suggest that someone's success is owed to luck so the influence of luck is often ignored. And conversely, when analyzing why businesses failed, investments didn't pan out, and careers got stuck in neutral, it would be a mistake to just think all are solely because of lack of effort, lack of good analysis, and laziness. Just to quote one paragraph which I feel encapsulates it:
People’s lives are a reflection of the experiences they’ve had and the people they’ve met, a lot of which are driven by luck, accident, and chance. The line between bold and reckless is thinner than people think, and you cannot believe in risk without believing in luck, because they are two sides of the same coin. They are both the simple idea that sometimes things happen that influence outcomes more than effort alone can achieve.
While discussing his book on a number of podcasts, another example Morgan gives is how Bill Gates attended one of the few schools in the US at the time to have a computer. Would there be a Microsoft if he didn't attend that school and had the environment to develop his affinity to computing? Or what would have been if his best friend at the time, who was apparently just as smart and more business savvy, wasn't killed in an alpine accident in his late teens?

A personal example is that I put myself in a position to be selected for some international consulting projects my megacorp won. But how would my career (and savings) have gone if my company didn't want to pursue international projects, which in fact happened a few years later?

The point is, yes, we consciously do things to put ourselves in a better position to succeed, but I would not completely discount serendipity, chance, and circumstance. If someone deems my success as due to luck, personally, I wouldn't feel completely offended because I appreciate that a lot of random things have gone my way.

We also don't have complete and perfect information. People make the best decisions they can with the info they have. And unfortunately, sometimes the variables in the equations don't play out as expected.

socca 12-18-2020 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YVRRocketSurgery (Post 2529612)
The point is, yes, we consciously do things to put ourselves in a better position to succeed, but I would not completely discount serendipity, chance, and circumstance.

A few months ago I encountered an interesting meme: "You are your tribe." I thought this was a bit extreme, but it definitely made me think (and still does). Should I be ashamed of wanting "my tribe" to be composed largely of "winners" (choose your favorite criteria for measuring "success")?

This meme was on my mind when a distant relative popped up recently wanting to be my friend. I don't respect this person's life choices (waiting around for two inheritances rather than earning a living; one inheritance failed to arrive and the other has been greatly delayed because a pesky relative just refuses to die ... :)) I politely declined the request, thus preserving my rather modestly-sized tribe "as is".

Whoops - I guess this thread is going off-topic. Sorry! :greetings10:


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