Any stories of portfolio running out?

[Out-to-Lunch]

I don't think it's a good reply, honestly. Unless your intent is to just get them to stop saying that sort of thing to you.

From what I have seen so far, there are people who think it's mostly due to hard work, good decisions, a good education, and a person's raw ability. These people will not kvetch at you. (They will also mostly not learn from you either, for the most part.)

There are other people who think it is more about the color of your skin, the health you were born with, the people you were born to, the country you were born in, the looks you were born with, and the things that happen to you, including the good things that were given to you and the bad things that happened to others. These people may kvetch at you, and I think your response will not persuade them to join in a respectful discussion between their point of view and yours.

Thanks for the comments. FWIW, after I posted (and before I read this) I reflected that a lot of the things on your list ARE part of my sucess, and I AM lucky. I also "did the right things," but that is a necessary, not sufficient, condition.

One of the musicians I rather like has a lyric: "It takes a whole lot of help to make it on your own."

 

[Keim]

Thanks for the comments. FWIW, after I posted (and before I read this) I reflected that a lot of the things on your list ARE part of my sucess, and I AM lucky. I also "did the right things," but that is a necessary, not sufficient, condition.

One of the musicians I rather like has a lyric: "It takes a whole lot of help to make it on your own."

Glad you saw that for yourself. Retiring (early or not) does require a degree of luck, along with work and sacrifice. We never know the cards others have been dealt.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Glad you saw that for yourself. Retiring (early or not) does require a degree of luck, along with work and sacrifice. We never know the cards others have been dealt.

Now, to be fair to me, such a response does not deny the role of luck. It invites (admittedly, in the best possible reading), the interlocutor to examine what was luck and what was not.

 

[jazz4cash]

Maybe something like “Lucky, yes.... but there’s a LOT more to it than that.”

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Maybe something like “Lucky, yes.... but there’s a LOT more to it than that.”

I like it!

 

[Dtail]

I just say yeah got lucky and landed a job on Wall Street and then usually no follow up.

 

[bada bing]

In 2000 ARCO (Atlantic Richfield Company) was broken apart with the majority of assets absorbed by BP. As part of the sale, the employees were offered a generous severance that included "5&5" (5 years tacked onto years of service and onto age for purposes of pension calculations). This coincided with the end of the DotCom bubble, where any idiot with a brokerage account had been making it as a sideline day-trader. It was perfectly natural for quite a few of the ARCO employees to take their 5&5 pension as a lump sum with plans of day trading to an early retirement fortune. I don't know of one single one out of 20 or so I'm familiar with that weren't back at work within 4-5 years. In many cases unable to find work at anywhere near their previous position or income.

 

[tb001]

Not running out yet, but 5 years ago we assumed we would be getting an inheritance from DH’s mom. Her and her late husbands pension and SS covered all their expenses plus, she had 7 figures saved and was adding to it every year. I don’t know for sure where she stands financially now, but any inheritance we might have thought was coming is likely gone. In home care is quickly eating up her savings, in spite of having a great insurance plan that covers a chunk of it.

 

[Dtail]

Not running out yet, but 5 years ago we assumed we would be getting an inheritance from DH’s mom. Her and her late husbands pension and SS covered all their expenses plus, she had 7 figures saved and was adding to it every year. I don’t know for sure where she stands financially now, but any inheritance we might have thought was coming is likely gone. In home care is quickly eating up her savings, in spite of having a great insurance plan that covers a chunk of it.

Interesting.
Could eventually be in a partial version of your situation.
My father at 90 y.o. now needs 24/7 home care. My parents also have a 7 figure portfolio which was being added to each year, but will decrease for the first time next year.
They also do have an LTC plan, but it will only cover 66k yearly and the cost is around 150k yearly.
Ironically, the nursing home coverage is similar.

What is different is I control all their investments, so I can see what the balances and total spending is.
Additionally, they do have an irrevocable trust for some of their monies, so perhaps the monies won't go to zero.

 

[Andre1969]

Thanks. That’s a relief.

Yeah, I believe SSDI is the part on your SS statement where it says "If you became disabled right now, your payment would about.... $X,XXX a month".

Looking at my own SS statement, the disability benefit is just slightly below what my benefit would be if I took SSA at 67. However, that may vary from person to person.

At some point though, you quit getting SSDI and get your regular SS benefit, instead. I can't remember if that's at age 65, or your FRA.

My uncle went on disability when he was 61, and I do remember at some point, his benefit went down slightly when he went from SSDI to regular SS. His FRA was 66, but I swear it seems longer ago than that. But, 65 versus 66 is only one year, and my memory ain't what it used to be!

As for SSI, according to the SS website, the maximum SSI payment, as of 2020, is $783/mo for an individual and $1,175 for a couple. However, many states add a supplement to that.

 

[tb001]

Interesting.
Could eventually be in a partial version of your situation.
My father at 90 y.o. now needs 24/7 home care. My parents also have a 7 figure portfolio which was being added to each year, but will decrease for the first time next year.
They also do have an LTC plan, but it will only cover 66k yearly and the cost is around 150k yearly.
Ironically, the nursing home coverage is similar.

What is different is I control all their investments, so I can see what the balances and total spending is.
Additionally, they do have an irrevocable trust for some of their monies, so perhaps the monies won't go to zero.

Yes, sounds very similar. DH controls her finances and bills, so he knows the details—I just know he’s worried. She has dementia, but is still ok being at home as long as there is care there, so it’s hard to think of moving her. But 24/7 care gets $$ fast, even when you’re spending very little on anything else.

 

[ncbill]

Hmmm...I buried a relative last year who was laid off from their job (entire department outsourced) around age 60...cashed in their pension to make it to SS at age 62.

Despite a modest inheritance & me buying out their share of a mountain cabin owned by our extended family they still relied on a HELOC (in addition to the primary mortgage) to make ends meet.

When they died so few liquid funds were left I had to loan their estate enough to payoff both the mortgage/HELOC until the house sold.

However, despite all the above they managed to stay in their home of nearly 40 years until just a few months before their death...still managed to travel out of state a couple of times annually to see grandkids, & kept up with a dozen or so friends locally.

 

[Music Lover]

Hmmm...I buried a relative last year who was laid off from their job (entire department outsourced) around age 60...cashed in their pension to make it to SS at age 62.

Despite a modest inheritance & me buying out their share of a mountain cabin owned by our extended family they still relied on a HELOC (in addition to the primary mortgage) to make ends meet.

When they died so few liquid funds were left I had to loan their estate enough to payoff both the mortgage/HELOC until the house sold.

However, despite all the above they managed to stay in their home of nearly 40 years until just a few months before their death...still managed to travel out of state a couple of times annually to see grandkids, & kept up with a dozen or so friends locally.

And that's why some people just don't care about saving...they have enough to get by by their standards. When you try to compare how they live to YOUR standards you can't understand it. But many people in that situation are perfectly content.

I've told the story several times about my friend who couldn't afford to pay his mortgage and had no hope of retiring on a lower income. He sold his house, moved into an apartment, and was debt free for the first time in his life. Within 6 months he leased an $85k vehicle (and has since then has traded up to a more expensive one), and retired early taking an age and years of service penalty. The lease and his rent are about 75% of his monthly income. And he's perfectly happy.

 

[pb4uski]

I just say yeah got lucky and landed a job on Wall Street and then usually no follow up.

+1. It's not worth getting into it with them.

I would say something like "Yes, we have been fortunate that we lived below our means and saved regularly as the experts advise and our investments did well so we could retire earlier than many" and leave it at that.

 

[ncbill]

And that's why some people just don't care about saving...they have enough to get by by their standards. When you try to compare how they live to YOUR standards you can't understand it. But many people in that situation are perfectly content.

I've told the story several times about my friend who couldn't afford to pay his mortgage and had no hope of retiring on a lower income. He sold his house, moved into an apartment, and was debt free for the first time in his life. Within 6 months he leased an $85k vehicle (and has since then has traded up to a more expensive one), and retired early taking an age and years of service penalty. The lease and his rent are about 75% of his monthly income. And he's perfectly happy.

Yeah, my relative understood that staying in their home was not sustainable and was open to selling it and moving into an apartment before they got their unexpected terminal diagnosis.

For those interested, their LTC costs were one month in a shared room in an cross-town nursing home (~$8,000) which was awful, then I moved them to a private room in an ALF near me (~4 months @ ~$4,000/month)...on Hospice once institutionalized which covered most needs (medical bed, oxygen concentrator, pain meds)

 

[aja8888]

In 2000 ARCO (Atlantic Richfield Company) was broken apart with the majority of assets absorbed by BP. As part of the sale, the employees were offered a generous severance that included "5&5" (5 years tacked onto years of service and onto age for purposes of pension calculations). This coincided with the end of the DotCom bubble, where any idiot with a brokerage account had been making it as a sideline day-trader. It was perfectly natural for quite a few of the ARCO employees to take their 5&5 pension as a lump sum with plans of day trading to an early retirement fortune. I don't know of one single one out of 20 or so I'm familiar with that weren't back at work within 4-5 years. In many cases unable to find work at anywhere near their previous position or income.

The ARCO breakup started in 1985 when I took the initial "package" which was the same (I was in my 40's at the time). At that time, 6,000+ employees took the deal. I went to work elsewhere and did well and collected on the ARCO stuff later on.

 

[RunningBum]

If I get annoyed enough to respond to a "lucky" comment, I usually say that I made a lot of my luck, or that I put myself in good position to be lucky. I can say a lot to support that if challenged, but I can't recall that I ever have been.

 

[YVRRocketSurgery]

I really enjoy reading Morgan Housel's writings around the psychology and behavioural aspects of money. One of the topics he's written about a few times and discussed over the last few months while promoting his new book is the impact of luck and chance on success and failure.

In a blogpost, he writes about how it's difficult to quanitify how much luck plays into success and failure. And because it's hard to quantify, it's kind of rude to suggest that someone's success is owed to luck so the influence of luck is often ignored. And conversely, when analyzing why businesses failed, investments didn't pan out, and careers got stuck in neutral, it would be a mistake to just think all are solely because of lack of effort, lack of good analysis, and laziness. Just to quote one paragraph which I feel encapsulates it:

People’s lives are a reflection of the experiences they’ve had and the people they’ve met, a lot of which are driven by luck, accident, and chance. The line between bold and reckless is thinner than people think, and you cannot believe in risk without believing in luck, because they are two sides of the same coin. They are both the simple idea that sometimes things happen that influence outcomes more than effort alone can achieve.​

While discussing his book on a number of podcasts, another example Morgan gives is how Bill Gates attended one of the few schools in the US at the time to have a computer. Would there be a Microsoft if he didn't attend that school and had the environment to develop his affinity to computing? Or what would have been if his best friend at the time, who was apparently just as smart and more business savvy, wasn't killed in an alpine accident in his late teens?

A personal example is that I put myself in a position to be selected for some international consulting projects my megacorp won. But how would my career (and savings) have gone if my company didn't want to pursue international projects, which in fact happened a few years later?

The point is, yes, we consciously do things to put ourselves in a better position to succeed, but I would not completely discount serendipity, chance, and circumstance. If someone deems my success as due to luck, personally, I wouldn't feel completely offended because I appreciate that a lot of random things have gone my way.

We also don't have complete and perfect information. People make the best decisions they can with the info they have. And unfortunately, sometimes the variables in the equations don't play out as expected.

 

[socca]

The point is, yes, we consciously do things to put ourselves in a better position to succeed, but I would not completely discount serendipity, chance, and circumstance.

A few months ago I encountered an interesting meme: "You are your tribe." I thought this was a bit extreme, but it definitely made me think (and still does). Should I be ashamed of wanting "my tribe" to be composed largely of "winners" (choose your favorite criteria for measuring "success")?

This meme was on my mind when a distant relative popped up recently wanting to be my friend. I don't respect this person's life choices (waiting around for two inheritances rather than earning a living; one inheritance failed to arrive and the other has been greatly delayed because a pesky relative just refuses to die ... ) I politely declined the request, thus preserving my rather modestly-sized tribe "as is".

Whoops - I guess this thread is going off-topic. Sorry!