about the retirement crisis

[wzd]

Two articles I read today reminded me of earlier discussions here. Frist is John Mauldin's weekly newsletter, which this week is on "super trends" which includes demographic trends. It is at http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo013004

I don't always agree with his newsletters but they are always thought provoking. This one referenced another article on aging at http://www.csis.org/gai/aging_index.pdf which shows the US as one of the places with lower risk of economic problems due to the aging population. France, Italy, and Spain are flagged as the countries most at risk. An interesting study; some of the concern for year 2040 discussed on this board are much worse abroad.

Wayne

 

[John Galt]

Well, I don't plan to be here in 2040 (at least I hope not). But it is interesting that other countries appear
to be in worse shape vis-a-vis their population demographics.

John Galt

 

[unclemick]

Try Japan - the demographics are - like right now - and they already have a big national debt to service and looking at raising taxes on workers next year to pay for the elderly.

 

[wzd]

Yes, Japan is right behind Italy, with a ration of 60+ to 15-59 of .39, but they put Japan in the medium risk category because:

Japan is a special case. It faces a massive
age wave, but has a relatively stingy benefit
system -- which is what keeps total Japanese
benefit spending from shooting off the charts.