With thanks to Ted and his bookmarks over at FundAlarm, FPA is reprinting their "Best of the last 25 Years" articles.
This article is from 1994 (remember when 486 computers ruled?) by a CFP named William Bengen. It used a withdrawal sequence similar to what FireCalc uses now and it's particularly noteworthy for the amount of brute-force data-slogging that it must have required to produce just 10 years ago.
It's particularly interesting to read about the "stars" who retire into a bull market and decide to spend more money. In this example, the "S"WR goes from 2.3% to 4% and almost leads to disaster.
Again, Bernstein puts a lot of excellent info in his books, but Bengen's 100% stock portfolios still outperform if the owner can stomach the volatility.
http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2004_Issues/jfp0304-art8.cfm?renderforprint=1
This article is from 1994 (remember when 486 computers ruled?) by a CFP named William Bengen. It used a withdrawal sequence similar to what FireCalc uses now and it's particularly noteworthy for the amount of brute-force data-slogging that it must have required to produce just 10 years ago.
It's particularly interesting to read about the "stars" who retire into a bull market and decide to spend more money. In this example, the "S"WR goes from 2.3% to 4% and almost leads to disaster.
Again, Bernstein puts a lot of excellent info in his books, but Bengen's 100% stock portfolios still outperform if the owner can stomach the volatility.
http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2004_Issues/jfp0304-art8.cfm?renderforprint=1