Summary of S&D allocations?

[lazyday]

I remember a webpage, or perhaps a long post, which summarized many "expert" S&D allocations.

It showed the % to each asset class, for allocations from authors such as W Bernstein and others, like "Taxable Ted" or "Margarita Portfolio."

Anyone have this link?

 

[justin]

Maybe this one:

http://www.geocities.com/finplan825/ModelPortfolios-Data.html

I used a number of the model portfolios on this page to set my own portfolio allocations.

 

[lazyday]

That's the one! Thanks.

 

[lazyday]

Here's another, from Swenson's new book, Unconventional Success, pg. 84:

30% Domestic equity
15% Developed equity
05% EM equity
20% Real Estate
15% US Treasuries
15% US TIPS

 

[justin]

I thought I'd post my target portfolio. I may still tweak it a little. I had to "frankenstein" my portfolio together from various parts and pieces due to varying offerings in 401ks and IRA's we can invest in. If I had carte blanche for fund selection, I'd probably stick with Vanguard only and switch around a few things.

It is 100% equities, with 50% domestic and 50% international. If I were to add a bond component, I'd probably go with Vanguard short term investment grade or short term bond index.

 

[JPatrick]

I thought I'd post my target portfolio.  I may still tweak it a little.  I had to "frankenstein" my portfolio together from various parts and pieces due to varying offerings in 401ks and IRA's we can invest in.  If I had carte blanche for fund selection, I'd probably stick with Vanguard only and switch around a few things. 

It is 100% equities, with 50% domestic and 50% international.  If I were to add a bond component, I'd probably go with Vanguard short term investment grade or short term bond index.   

Looks good--I have my DW's portfolio set up in a similar manner except that I'm more aggressive in my overseas choices.
Also considering easing in to a S&P 500 and backing off the extended a little provided the much predicted large cap rally happens.

 

[justin]

Also considering easing in to a S&P 500 and backing off the extended a little provided the much predicted large cap rally happens.

My thoughts exactly. I'm thinking of temporarily reducing my tilt towards small and value since I think the large caps and growths will have their day soon. The value and small sectors have had such a run-up and the PE ratios make me think, on a fundamental basis, that the larger caps and growth indexes (with more favorable fundamentals) might do better near-term. I'm lucky in a way in that for the next year or so, I'll be more heavily weighted towards large caps and growth. The portfolio I posted is a target, and it'll take me a year or so to get close to the target.

(I know, I know, I'm thinking about doing the evil market timing. But it will only be done in small doses temporarily. )

 

[lazyday]

I've been selling small and value equity, to buy largecap equity and short term bonds/TIPS, over the past year or so.

But, I don't know if or when that will pay off. I think it has reduced the risk of my portfolio, but it wouldn't shock me to see small and value continue to outperform for several years. If that happens, I'm prepared to hold my large blend, and even sell more small and value.
Or, if I'm lucky, and large or growth outperforms a lot, then I can increase my tilt back to small value, on the cheap.

 

[unclemick]

Hmmmm

Today - er sort of sold off by snail mail. My last trade was 1998. I try not get over active and incurr  too many expenses due to overtrading.

In tax deferred: sold Lifestrategy moderate, Vanguard REIT Index, Vanguard REIT Index, Vanguard Small Cap Value, Fidelity US Bond Index.

Used the above to purchase Vanguard Target Retirement 2015. Almost gave into emotional yearnings(Psst! - Wellesley) but I rocked up and bought 2015.

No big slice and dice(as to their mix of asset classes) - at 12 years into ER at age 62 - looked at my track record overall since 1966, the grey hair, etc. - ok dokie - I'll conceed.

BUT - NOT TOTALLY!!! In my kayak, travel, entertainment, misc budget (up from 15%) - I have a VG Brokerage account.

Canceled four more DRIP Plans today - only 36 or so more to go. Took since 1989 to get two file cabinets worth(peaked at 48) - so no great rush to get certificates and drive VG crazy. A few even allow direct transfer - depending on the plan.

The slices will be only if I group individual stocks into classes - instead of the Norwegian widow utes, tel., oils, REITs, drugs etc. My Glaxo is international, Alcan is natural resource/international, UBS is Swiss or financial.

Like skins and shirts - 25% kayak/Norwegian widow vs 75% 2015 or something like that.

Of course the Nords, Brewer and all the other cats on this forum who post individual picks from time to time will get extra attention - so's I can 'kayak' past 2015 so to speak.

May be old - still have a few hormones left. I did get Seattle right - hope springs eternal.

Heh heh heh heh

 

[JPatrick]

Unclemick, it never ceases to amaze me that you were not selected to be Fed Chairman. 
I'm thinking it may have been a communication problem caused by Katrina

 

[REWahoo]

Unclemick, it never ceases to amaze me that you were not selected to be Fed Chairman.
I'm thinking it may have been a communication problem caused by Katrina

And all this time I thought it was due to his "irrational exuberance".

heh heh heh heh

 

[PJ03]

Hey Justin,

I took Frank Armstrong’s DFA 60/40 portfolio and compared it to a Matched portfolio using Vanguard and Tweedy Browne as shown on that page.
I ran these in Morningstar.
For the period Jan 05 – Dec 31 05 it showed a 9.07 return for the DFA portfolio.

Using the Vanguard & TB portfolio for the same period it showed a 9.34 return.

If I were to compare the fees for having the DFA funds along with the management fees the Vanguard wins out.
This was only one year, I’d be interested in knowing how they faired over an extended period say like from 73 to present day if that is at all possible ! if anyone knows where or how to do that ?

Before I did this I was about to ask about the value of using DFA and Advisers for ones Portfolio.


http://www.geocities.com/finplan825/ModelPortfolios-Data.html

I used a number of the model portfolios on this page to set my own portfolio allocations. 

 

[Martha]

So UncleMick, did your kayak/Norwegian widow portion of your allocation increase to 25% because it outperformed your Bogle portion? Or am I misreading you?

 

[justin]

Hey Justin,
....
If I were to compare the fees for having the DFA funds along with the management fees the Vanguard wins out.
This was only one year, I’d be interested in knowing how they faired over an extended period say like from 73 to present day if that is at all possible ! if anyone knows where or how to do that ?

Before I did this I was about to ask about the value of using DFA and Advisers for ones Portfolio.

DFA gives you access to more fine-tuned funds - smaller small caps, more valu-ey value stocks, etc, - than Vanguard. I'm sure we could set up a historically back-tested portfolio to prove either VG or DFA produced superior returns, depending on the portfolio allocations.

I personally find it hard to believe that the extra fees you incur with DFA funds are really worth the added returns you may get by having more concentrated asset classes. Most DFA advisors charge .5-1%, and then you still have to pay each funds' expense ratio. I also like VG's online interface instead of talking to a real person (maybe I'm anti-social, but sometimes I just feel like transacting business at midnight with a computer instead of a real person from 8 am to 5 pm).

 

[unclemick]

To Martha

Sort of no. Here's the deal - at age 62, in some violation of what the ORP calc tells as the optimum take out sequence.

Prior to now - pension plus dividends carried the load with IRA in reserve - no take out. That plus three SS/small pensions had us high on the hog in LA in a paid off fish camp very low core budget - with plenty of 'mad' money.

Katrina, two deaths, and finally admitting to myself after 12 years of ER - I can't stay the same age forever.

The Norwegian widow was there to provide dividends/ enough div growth to sort keep up with inflation - I never actually compared portfolio value (the Mr Market part) to anything.

New thinking - small carve out - two mini Roth conversions in case I survive past the IRS 84.3(1993) or .6(2005).

Lead sled dog - now 2015 for take out starting this year. The reason is NOT performance - but sort of Ben Graham's "the middle way" - damped SD and R squared to lower volitility, enough stock for a tad of growth, allow a hump spend wise in my 60's and 70's(nod to Cut-Throat). So 2015, early SS, non cola defined pension fading in the stretch. Roth in Lifestrategy mod(60/40) is the insurance policy for my old age - should I not croak precisely at 84.6 per the IRS guideline.

The Nowegian widow is now able to get 'wild and free' - the dividend burden lifted, she has been promoted - in there with the kayak, cruise, entertainment, travel and go to heck portion of the ER stash.

Still a div cat - but slowly zapping my DRIPs and shifting the stocks to my 'new' VG broker account.

Leaning toward pushing div growth more than current div. As time passes - I - true to form will suffer other 'brilliant invest ideas'.

But 2015 now carries the heavy load with current div/interest as the backup 'floor' in yucky years.

Soooo - that's where I going for will or ill.

And if she beats the pants off some other portfolio out there - YEAH!! - she, the Norwegian widow has been freed to be frivolous.

heh heh heh

 

[Martha]

Got it.