Forbes: Recession dead ahead

[boont]

"WHITEFISH, Mont. - We wish it wasn’t so, and we wish we didn’t have to say it. But today’s economy is on a collision course with a recession. And the most probable starting point is the fourth quarter of this year or early 2007. Since the stock market typically leads the economy by six to nine months, you can guess what that means for Wall Street this year. "

Rather than ride it down again one might want to go a little short here or move some money off the table.

boont

 

[sgeeeee]

It's interesting that posters on another thread were talking about the current dip as a buying opportunity.

I think I'll split the difference and stay the course.

 

[Cut-Throat]

I'm gonna get ready and do nothing!

 

[haha]

"WHITEFISH, Mont. - We wish it wasn’t so, and we wish we didn’t have to say it. But today’s economy is on a collision course with a recession. And the most probable starting point is the fourth quarter of this year or early 2007. Since the stock market typically leads the economy by six to nine months, you can guess what that means for Wall Street this year. "

Rather than ride it down again one might want to go a little short here or move some money off the table.

boont

Who are you quoting Boont?

Ha

 

[sgeeeee]

"WHITEFISH, Mont. - We wish it wasn’t so, and we wish we didn’t have to say it. But today’s economy is on a collision course with a recession. And the most probable starting point is the fourth quarter of this year or early 2007. Since the stock market typically leads the economy by six to nine months, you can guess what that means for Wall Street this year. "

Rather than ride it down again one might want to go a little short here or move some money off the table.

boont

Who are you quoting Boont?

Ha

I assume it is Forbes magazine from the thread title.

 

[Cut-Throat]

I can't remember who said it.

"The stock market has predicted 14 of the last 6 recessions"

In my mind we have been in a recession since 2000. I never saw a recovery!

 

[haha]

I found it- it"s Jim Stack in Forbes.

Ha

 

[Cool Dood]

Forbes: Recession dead ahead

BUY! BUY! BUY!

 

[justin]

Forbes: Recession dead ahead

BUY! BUY! BUY!

SELL SELL SELL!!!!

(Hey, can't fault a guy for trying to buy some index funds on the cheap can you? )

Seriously, if you opened up Forbes and the magazine consisted of a single sentence that said "We have no idea which way the market is going and no one else does either", how many issues would fly off the newsstands?

They gotta fill up the pages between the ads somehow...

 

[sendbaht]

CASH! CASH! CASH!. That 5% in a CD is going to look pretty fine the next few years. Well, I think so anyway.

 

[bpp]

Seriously, if you opened up Forbes and the magazine consisted of a single sentence that said "We have no idea which way the market is going and no one else does either", how many issues would fly off the newsstands?

They gotta fill up the pages between the ads somehow...

They should be able to find something worth talking about that doesn't require stock market predictions. After all, look at how much discussion there is at boards like this one.

Ok, never mind.

 

[brewer12345]

FWIW, I think there is a pretty decent chance of a recession of some kind next year. Yield curve just about to invert, Fed raising rates again, housing market slowing down or coming apart... I also note that while commodities are still high and volatile, they are not shooting up the way they have in the past few years.

Not to say we should all panic, but I think it is a reasonable time to re-examine one's risk tolerance and make sure your portfolio squares with it.

 

[Maximillion]

U.S Defecit at record highs.

U.S Debt Stratospheric.

U.S Households refinanced Homes to massive levels.

40% of U.S Treasuries held by Foreigners who will not invest in losing currency.

Iraq Police Action draining Men/Women and Resources

Ineffective Leadership, Partisan Politics.

Denial of U.S Populace to face reality of current situation.

I do not have confidance that the U.S Public could hunker down in a manner necessary to fight the problem, Conspicous Consumerism is seen as a right.

I have said it so many times, but the U.S Economy is a Train Wreck about to happen, you need Foreign Unfriendly oil to fuel your cars, you need Foreigners to prop up your debt, overseas customers are now competitors, you may be Captain of your own ship but some one elses hand is on the tiller.

I am 40% Cash, too many uncertainties, I am adding Pfizer and Trans Canada Pipelines, good dividend that is safe.

 

[Andre1969]

I'm gonna get ready and do nothing!

That's my stand, too. I've found that, more often than not, whenever I try to do something about it, I end up doing more harm than good!

Let the games begin.

 

[Maximillion]

I was just listening to Bernake's latest speech again, the one where he says he is worried about the economy slowing down(I will lower rates), and then turns around and says that Inflation many be a problem(I will raise rates)


My take, 25 basis points , no more until after elections, then a gradual and continous series of rate hikes.

China is preparing for the day, post 2008, when all those people employed to build the Olympic facilities become unemployed, they are starting to concentrate more on their domestic market and less reliance upon exports.

 

[unclemick]

Duh

The bulk of the portfolio - do nothing except for 110-my age which was last year's adjustment.

Out in putz/hobby/male hormone land - a little STON, EGLE, ILA and I too am watching Pfizer and of course BUD.

Nothing like beer and drugs in a recession!!!

heh heh heh heh heh - still own Glaxo and Lilly from the early 90's 'recession?'

 

[Danny]

I like Target. They're having a sale right now.

 

[audreyh1]

Sticking my neck out:

My take - two more 25 basis point rate hikes this summer (to demonstrate hawkishness, although inflation readings may also warrant aggressiveness) , then no action for the rest of the year. Economic slowdown will become apparent in the fall, and at some point people (especially the politicians come November) will be screaming bloody murder that interest rates are too high.

If inflation pressures stop building (and ECRI thinks they have already leveled off), then the Fed may actually be faced with needing to lower rates somewhat next year.

Audrey

 

[brewer12345]

My take - two more 25 basis point rate hikes this summer (to demonstrate hawkishness, although inflation readings may also warrant aggressiveness) , then no action for the rest of the year.  Economic slowdown will become apparent in the fall, and at some point people (especially the politicians come November) will be screaming bloody murder that interest rates are too high.

If inflation pressures stop building (and ECRI thinks they have already leveled off), then the Fed may actually be faced with needing to lower rates somewhat next year.

Audrey

Heh, I actually saw a story indicating that the National Assoc. of Realtors is already squealing in paid for the Fed to pause.

 

[Nords]

FWIW, I think there is a pretty decent chance of a recession of some kind next year. 

Is it just me, or does June 2006 feel eerily like June 2002 all over again?

 

[dumpster56]

Oh China after the 2008 olympics.

Just wait, they make their move on retaking tiawan, with a military strike.

Hang on its gonna be wild.

 

[brewer12345]

2 to 10 year treasury curve inverted this morning. Not pretty.

 

[Nords]

Just wait, they make their move on retaking tiawan, with a military strike.

Nope. PACOM's ADM Fallon has practically been living over in PRC this year and they've been invited to monitor just about every U.S. Pacific military exercise. They're being encouraged to find peaceful ways to resolve the situation because there will be major bloodshed in the straits if they try the martial approach.

To say nothing of the trade & financial bloodshed.

 

[laurence]

2 to 10 year treasury curve inverted this morning.  Not pretty.

And the market is in free fall. Dow down almost 500 points in the last week, over 800 points from it's high. It's with morbid curiosity that I watch, like a car accident on the side of the freeway.

 

[justin]

Just be glad you aren't in Japan. Nikkei dropped from 17,563 in April 2006 almost 3,000 points to 14,633. Good time to be "internationally diversified" if you are a Japanese investor.