Eating my words, Oil drops below $60

[Zathras]

Ok, time for me to eat my words. I didn't think oil would ever reach $60 again, shall we shoot for $40

 

[d]

i've been waiting for someone to mention the price of oil ... commodities anyone?

 

[Cut-Throat]

Remember this thread?

http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=8970.0

 

[d]

i have some recollection of the following:

most things that follow economic cycles overshoot on both the upside and the downside ... i'd guess (but am not betting) that in addition to RE, we'll see oil and other commodities (including gold) "correct", and suspect that submerging markets have not fully "corrected". 

 

[justin]

This thread is fun:

http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=7118.0


And this was the original "OMG $4 gas" thread:

http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=4066.0

looks like sanity and fundamentals are finally coming back to the energy markets.

 

[Khan]

This thread is fun:

http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=7118.0


And this was the original "OMG $4 gas" thread:

http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=4066.0

looks like sanity and fundamentals are finally coming back to the energy markets.

Just 'til after the elections.

 

[d]

tinfoil hats!

 

[haha]

I haven't seen anything that would merit being called a crash. Who would expect any commodity or stock or whatever to necessarily hold every price point? The economy may be weakening. And though it is hard to see that the risks in the Mid-East have lessened, the perception seems to be that they have.

So factors of supply and demand and projections of these two elements will always be waxing and waning. Have a look at monthly average prices, the picture looks different.

A crash is what happened to the NASDAQ. Going on 7 years now, and it is still down 60%. Ditto the Nikkei.

Check back 7 years form now. I doubt the oil bears will be growling then, except perhaps from a much higher price point.

Ha

 

[brewer12345]

I tend to agree with Ha on this one. I see a correction and some see-sawing. A crash would be $20 oil. No way we are getting down there absent some kind of global recession, and even then it would have to be a severe one. Demand is too high and too many reserves are un-economic under $40 OR SO.

 

[haha]

Here is an interesting counterpoint to the more bearish energy arguments that have been presented.

http://www.itulip.com/energyandmoney.htm

Esp look at part 2, Energy and Thermodynamics.

Ha

 

[mickeyd]

One things for sure, this is not Bush and Cheney's fault. They are only responsible when oil costs increase as I understand it.

 

[astromeria]

One things for sure, this is not Bush and Cheney's fault.

It's Clinton's fault, dude--get with the program. That's Hilary Clinton.

 

[Cut-Throat]

One things for sure, this is not Bush and Cheney's fault. They are only responsible when oil costs increase as I understand it.

Is this coming from a guy that used to blame Carter for screwing up the entire economy in 4 years? -

 

[tryan]

A buddy works for a pump company ... reports that at $70 / barrel oil and gas companies wiped out the pump supply and placed orders for many more. TThe theory was at these prices we need to sell everything we can possibly produce. Sooo, they did ... now the out come is obvious.

Gota love capitolism.

 

[Spanky]

Some say that the fundamental is $50 plus $x for uncertainty/risk.

 

[2B]

Is this coming from a guy that used to blame Carter for screwing up the entire economy in 4 years?  -

The problem with Carter is that he couldn't do anything meaningful as president in either 4 or 40 years.

 

[2B]

Some say that the fundamental is $50 plus $x for uncertainty/risk.

"Some" don't have any idea what is happening in the oil patch. There is actually a horrific glut of oil and natural gas. I'd say that the price is more like $35 plux $x for uncertainty. I might be wrong but most likely on the high side.

To contain what I see as a price collapse, the Saudis will have to cut 20%.

 

[Cut-Throat]

The problem with Carter is that he couldn't do anything meaningful as president in either 4 or 40 years.

Actually he set the stage to cure inflation by appointing a Fed Reserve Chairman that raised interest rates to 20% to tame it. He was willing to commit political suicide for the sake of the country. He was also willing to tackle the energy problem about 30 years ago. The problem is that the masses are 'now orientated' and while they claim they want leadership, they are poor followers.

You sir are a sorry student of history.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

Actually he set the stage to cure inflation by appointing a Fed Reserve Chairman that raised interest rates to 20% to tame it. He was willing to commit political suicide for the sake of the country. He was also willing to tackle the energy problem about 30 years ago. The problem is that the masses are now orientated and while they claim they want leadership, they are poor followers.

You sir are a sorry student of history and a poor follower.

I am a student of history, although I am a "poor follower".
I follow no one but myself. Anyway, Carter is/was a terrible
embarrassment. I can see how he could get elected
(the "moron theory"). Still, he would get my vote as the worst
president ever.

JG

 

[d]

The problem with Carter is that he couldn't do anything meaningful as president in either 4 or 40 years

... just imagine what he could have done in 40 years!!   that said, i'm more than happy to leave that "discussion" to JG and C-T ... i'll just sit back and watch.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

... just imagine what he could have done in 40 years!!   that said, i'm more than happy to leave that "discussion" to JG and C-T ... i'll just sit back and watch.

Mr. Rogers without the brains.

JG

 

[HFWR]

One more time...

Jimmy Carter "...enacted strong environmental legislation; deregulated the trucking, airline, rail, finance, communications, and oil industries, bolstered the social security system; and appointed record numbers of women and minorities to significant government and judicial posts. In foreign affairs, Carter's accomplishments included the Camp David Accords, the Panama Canal Treaties, the creation of full diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China, and the negotiation of the SALT II Treaty..."

 

[Leonidas]

"Some" don't have any idea what is happening in the oil patch. There is actually a horrific glut of oil and natural gas. I'd say that the price is more like $35 plux $x for uncertainty. I might be wrong but most likely on the high side.

To contain what I see as a price collapse, the Saudis will have to cut 20%.

These folks say it's more like $21:

Interesting to note how, after other mideast crises, that the price comes back down to that level. But, until price levels stay high enough to encourage more production there will continue to be this little problem:

There is a glut, especially in NG, but it's more short term than long term. The graph shows that the system's ability to pick up the slack whenever there is a production drop somewhere is very tight. Disruptions, both real and imagined, tend to be the focus of the speculators who drove the market sky high in the first place.

The Saudis can live with oil down to 50 or so, but Iran and Venezuela need oil to be priced at $60 oil (or higher). Any wonder that most of the crap being stirred in the oil producing news comes from those two countries?

One more time...

Jimmy Carter "...enacted strong environmental legislation; deregulated the trucking, airline, rail, finance, communications, and oil industries, bolstered the social security system; and appointed record numbers of women and minorities to significant government and judicial posts. In foreign affairs, Carter's accomplishments included the Camp David Accords, the Panama Canal Treaties, the creation of full diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China, and the negotiation of the SALT II Treaty..."

For a guy who was such a great President, why did his own party hate him so at the end of his 4 years? The Democratic led Congress ignored him half the time, and when he ran for re-election he couldn't even win die hard Demo states like New York or Massachusetts.

 

[2B]

I have a hard time understanding how anyone can consider Jimmy Carter any more than a lower quartile president. It can only be the result of enormous quatities of Democratic Party Kool Aid. Its been long enough to let the poor man fall to the level he deserves. Every historian based review of his presidency puts him in the lower quartile.

As for worst presidents, I'm favoring James Buchanan. He successfully guaranteed the Civil War.

 

[HFWR]

For a guy who was such a great President, why did his own party hate him so at the end of his 4 years?  The Democratic led Congress ignored him half the time, and when he ran for re-election he couldn't even win die hard Demo states like New York or Massachusetts.

Well, I'm not necessarily defending Carter; just quoting Wikipedia...