OR they stay solvent, but change the rules...
Here's a chart I worked up of survival probabilities at a future age for a 65-year-old from data at the SSA website.To make the annuities available today worth buying, you have to outlive your mortality table by about 10 years. Only a very small percentage of the population will do that.
Depending on your sex and marital status, delaying SS beats an immediate annuity. But immediate annuities compare favorably to a 4% SWR.
Social Security is more like a deferred annuity, with your heirs getting nothing if you die before starting benefits.
To make the annuities available today worth buying, you have to outlive your mortality table by about 10 years.
The key difference with the "4% SWR" is that it is very conservative. Following FIRECalc usually results in a substantial estate at the end or the opportunity to dramatically increase spending. With an immediate annuity, the best you get is what you bought. You'll leave no estate and your future payments depend on the continued solvency of the company you bought it from.
Personally, I may consider part of my retirement in an immediate annuity, but would be reluctant to put all my eggs in one basket. My employer's pension offers a lump sum or the option to annuitize with a payment higher than that available at Vanguard even for a mail. When the time comes, I 'll look at it closer and probably will take the monthly payments.
It seems to me that you are defining "worth buying" as being the same as "yielding the most possible total money received over a lifetime".
Do you really think a 4% SWR is so very conservative? I have been using 3.5% in my computations for a 40 year retirement, and only use 4% when I am trying to "force" things to work out the way I would like. But then, I also dream about 5% with enough in CD's to withdraw 0% for up to 10 years of market doldrums.
I understand that it sounds so nice to have that check in the mail every month from the friendly insurance company but there are a lot of fees buried in the purchase price. I also do not feel comfortable with me being an unsecured creditor should they go belly up. I feel much safer with a diversified portfolio and a rational asset allocation strategy.
You're right about my definition of "worth buying." The goal is the largest cash flow stream from a fixed investment.
My annuity comparison is with laddered high grade corporate bonds. I then eat my principal and interest as the bonds mature over 30 years. That says that if I live longer that annuity may not have been too bad but then my expenses will be limited to the assisted living or nursing facility I'll probably be in by then. If I assume that inflation is 3% over that period and get an average return of about 6% (fairly conservative based on what I'm seeing in the bond market), I can duplicate your 6.288% return for about 85% of what the annuity costs. I can put that 15% into long term investments that will let me restart the program if I'm still alive in 30 years. All the while, I'll still have the assets available if I want to do something different.
I currently have about 7 years of living expenses in money markets, CDs and bonds. When I finish rebalancing, I'll have 10.
I understand that it sounds so nice to have that check in the mail every month from the friendly insurance company but there are a lot of fees buried in the purchase price. I also do not feel comfortable with me being an unsecured creditor should they go belly up. I feel much safer with a diversified portfolio and a rational asset allocation strategy.
I think one reason some are comfortable with an immediate annuity is because it's just an easy way to handle your cash flow needs. Small annuity + SS = monthly cash flow requirements. Some people that are 65 and over just want to keep it simple. Who knows how well our minds will hold up as we age. Might be a good way to insure we don't blow all our investments as we age. Not sure if I will buy one or not but it's a possibility.
2B, just curious.........what is your overall investment allocation?
The key difference with the "4% SWR" is that it is very conservative. Following FIRECalc usually results in a substantial estate at the end or the opportunity to dramatically increase spending. With an immediate annuity, the best you get is what you bought. You'll leave no estate and your future payments depend on the continued solvency of the company you bought it from.
2B, just curious.........what is your overall investment allocation?
As I recall, the holders of annuities from Executive Life fared far better than the sellers of the annuities. After originally cutting payments by 30 percent on monthly payouts the annuities were eventually paid in full. The owners (i.e. sharreholders) went belly-up. Guess they needed a better pencil sharpner. The risk on annuities is far far less than the risk on the solvency of the issuer, although you do not want your issuer to go belly up that's for sure.