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-   -   How low can it go? (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/how-low-can-it-go-32610.html)

David1961 01-17-2008 12:19 PM

How low can it go?
 
As of now, the Dow is at 12,298 and falling. What is your prediction for the lowest the Dow will go this year?

To make it worthwhile, the winner will receive a $10 contribution to the tax-deferred variable annuity of his/her choice!! https://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ilies/grin.gif

W2R 01-17-2008 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David1961 (Post 602353)
As of now, the Dow is at 12,298 and falling. What is your prediction for the lowest the Dow will go this year?

To make it worthwhile, the winner will receive a $10 contribution to the tax-deferred variable annuity of his/her choice!! https://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ilies/grin.gif

:2funny: It's really amazing what's happening, isn't it?

Pretty harrowing. I guess we just have to take it as it happens. Maybe tomorrow will be show a big upwards surge.

twaddle 01-17-2008 12:26 PM

I think the average peak-to-trough during a recession is about 28%, which would be just a hair above DOW 10,000. Not a prediction, of course. Just the level of volatility you should expect from stocks.

Robert the Red 01-17-2008 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David1961 (Post 602353)
What is your prediction for the lowest the Dow will go this year?

11,235

Which happens to be the digit-reversal of my old Zip code, and if that's not an accurate predictor, what is?

Rich_by_the_Bay 01-17-2008 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert the Red (Post 602365)
11,235

Which happens to be the digit-reversal of my old Zip code

Whitefish Bay?

StJohnsWood 01-17-2008 12:52 PM

Just remember that as it falls bargins can be had. The time to buy is when it falls not when it goes up. 10,750 is my answer and I'm sticking to it.

W2R 01-17-2008 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle (Post 602361)
I think the average peak-to-trough during a recession is about 28%, which would be just a hair above DOW 10,000. Not a prediction, of course. Just the level of volatility you should expect from stocks.

Well gosh, that's not nearly as bad as I would have thought. We've already gone from fourteen thousand something to the low twelve thousands, so we're halfway there.

I was thinking more like 9821 or something like that. Yikes. A caveat - - remember my crystal ball usually functions more as an inverse predictor and never seems to be at all correct.

twaddle 01-17-2008 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire (Post 602384)
Well gosh, that's not nearly as bad as I would have thought. We've already gone from fourteen thousand something to the low twelve thousands, so we're halfway there.

I was thinking more like 9821 or something like that. Yikes. A caveat - - remember my crystal ball usually functions more as an inverse predictor and never seems to be at all correct.

Well, I was just giving an average. I suppose if we really wanted to talk about how low it could go, I could give you my spiel about how Dec 2007 will be considered the start of our 20-year-long Japan-like period. ;)

The Chinese and Saudis have lots of cash. Let's just hope they start buying our assets soon.

cute fuzzy bunny 01-17-2008 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert the Red (Post 602365)
11,235

Which happens to be the digit-reversal of my old Zip code, and if that's not an accurate predictor, what is?

I hope to god this doesnt work, because one of my old zip codes backwards is 06710. Its not that good before you flip it backwards either.

Robert the Red 01-17-2008 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa (Post 602379)
Whitefish Bay?

Shorewood, actually.

I always remembered the Zip code 53211 because it is the digit-reversal of the first 5 Fibonacci numbers. A PhD in Math is good for something!

Dawg52 01-17-2008 01:46 PM

Zero?:eek:

twaddle 01-17-2008 01:47 PM

I would buy the entire economy if it went to zero. :)

Dawg52 01-17-2008 01:52 PM

Actually, I'm nibbling away just to keep my stock allocation % in line. Might be nibbling for quite sometime. :-\

FinallyRetired 01-17-2008 01:59 PM

There's a ledge at 12110 that would represent the one year lows from last March. I expect at least a temporary bounce from that point, but if it goes through that, we may take out 11000 over the next few weeks.

twaddle 01-17-2008 02:02 PM

Interesting, the S&P 500 has already blown past the March lows, but I didn't realize that the Dow was still hanging tough. You can probably thank MO for that. :)

al_bundy 01-17-2008 02:08 PM

wouldn't be surprised if the SP500 goes to around 800 before it's all over. remember that the big ARM reset still has months to go for this year and it takes 3-12 months for a home to go into foreclosure from the time the lien owner starts the process. there are probably a lot of future write offs only starting the process now that will be news in a few months.

this will cause spending for everything from servers to consumer items to drop. and we are still at a historic level of stocks being owned on margin so as prices drop a lot of people will have to sell

CuppaJoe 01-17-2008 02:15 PM

I see anything above 11000 as froth on the latte. Honestly, I don't see this as a "down" market.

REWahoo 01-17-2008 02:16 PM

https://www.early-retirement.org/atta...1536e1942e.jpg

W2R 01-17-2008 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle (Post 602431)
I would buy the entire economy if it went to zero. :)

There wouldn't be any left, because I would buy it all when it hit one!! Mine, mine, mine. Nya, nya. >:D

Razor 01-17-2008 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle (Post 602397)
The Chinese and Saudis have lots of cash. Let's just hope they start buying our assets soon.

That would be great. We could all be working for them.


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