![]() |
CPI, bald faced lies
I haven't located all the monthly details yet, but it's time for citizens to file a Class Action suit. If anyone out there doesn't think the numbers are a lie, you have to be brain dead.
Gas down 2% for the month, commodities down, medical care up 0.1%.....what a joke. |
Whatever they are smoking, I want some.
Prices unchanged? If private companies cooked their books like this, their executives would be in prison. |
Quote:
|
in their dreams, maybe...:rolleyes:
|
Its one month of numbers big deal. Put away the tin foil hats.
|
Its not a lie. The metric simply records price changes for a particular budget and type of person. That many ER's probably dont equate to.
I'd bet that for the average urban worker that rents an apartment, takes the train and doesnt pay for health care, its spot on. |
Quote:
There is nothing tin foil about it, it is real. It's not just one month either. What a joke. |
What I don't get is that TIPS are rallying today. They should be selling off viciously as people who hold them realize what a scam it is and sell.
|
Quote:
Oh, I see you excuded health care, I guess it's free! |
Quote:
As far as Wall Street, did you watch Bear Sterns this morning. Up $10 on the news is was about to go under (who the hell was buying on that news), then down 50%. The koolaide drinking is out of control. |
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Attachment 3394 |
Quote:
Even in the CPI-E (elderly) health care costs are presumed to be absorbed somewhat by medicare, but it does account for increased out of pocket expenses due to age. Unfortunately, theres no CPI-ER where the primary cost is health care, followed by food, energy, travel and toys. My frickin toy budget skyrocketed 498% in the last month. |
Quote:
What they really need is a CPI-MC for the middle class, one that reflects a typical budget and recognizes that when prices of the essentials is very high, discretionary "stuff" is weighted less to account for the fact that fewer people can afford it. |
I'll get you some better percentages later...
For my CPI-P: Health care is down against last month but up 10% over last year Gas is down and trending down faster (employing new driving style) Food is up horribly but that's from moving the hedonic scale up (eating out multiple times a week) Energy is even It's not like the calculation for CPI is a mystery. And, it's based on polling real people. Do you think they're putting some ringers in the mix? Maybe you don't like their component weighting? I didn't look hard, but this doc shows the weighting by category: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiri2006.pdf |
Quote:
I'm a little fired up about this, so I might be missing something but it looks like gas was up 18% in the last year by your example. Yet CPI is less than 4% year over year? We can all pick and choose and play games with numbers. |
Why be fired up about it. We know they exclude certain things its not like they change the parameters every month. Keep track of your own inflation rate.
|
Quote:
|
They are stealing from us through COLA's. Even the standard deduction on our taxes.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
Why is it so hard to believe for 1 month it was unchanged? |
Quote:
|
Quote:
COLAs on Social Security. Interest paid out in TIPS and series I savings bonds. Resetting of income tax brackets. The fox is guarding the hen house. I'd really like to see some trusted, independent third parties with no conflicts of interest compute inflation. REAL inflation, not the screwed up way they calculate it now to understate it with crap like "substitution." |
On CNBC, the dope just said, the CPI "eased fears" of higher inflation. Koolaide drinkers.
P.S. I should add that Mark Haynes has credibility. He said the CPI was BS and that Bear Sterns should not have up on bad news, before it crashed 50%. Of course the dope, Erin "Brunette" made fun of him, as usual. Notice how he has been pushed to the back office. Koolaide drinkers I say. |
Quote:
I give up, I need another cup of coffee to settle down. This is such BS. |
Quote:
So, yes, I did pay less at the pump. |
Quote:
Gas Prices - MSN Autos and punch in your zip code. TG i'm in VGENX in a Roth IRA. maybe that will offset the price i'm paying at the pump. <not holding breath> |
Quote:
Barbarus: I don't know of a better metric, do you? I think people's spending is increasing faster than CPI, but part of that is people have and expect more toys and services and they don't consider that the content of some of their purchases has changed which is reflected in the price (ie, the average car today has so many more features and technology than a car of 10, 20 years ago - you can't say it's apples to apples IMHO). Ziggy29: Interesting point about the Govt's incentive to "cook the books." I don't believe they are for the most part, but they are between a rock and a hard place. If COLA goes up more radically, and SS, govt pensions, etc. go up more radically - revenues have to go up to pay for it. As a taxpayer with none of those benefits (yet), it's in my best interest that they don't go up any faster since I have to pay higher taxes as a result. I realize one day I may be the beneficiary of COLA, but I'd like to think I would resist the temptation to fleece (too strong a word, but you get my drift) the generations that follow me for my own (generations) benefit. It's going to be bad enough for them - would you like to be 21 today? I wouldn't. The fair answer for all concerned lies somewhere in between - so if CPI straddles the fence (I'm not conceding that it does BTW), maybe it's best for all concerned. Flamesuit on, go for it... |
Quote:
This is the same kind of "substitution" BS the government uses -- when prices are rising, substitute steak with hamburger and claim the price of meat didn't rise. |
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Using the same metric over a longer time frame...seems the last 5 years have produced a little more price pop in fuel than a 2.x-3.x% number would account for. Of course its only one of many pieces in the pie. |
sorry if this is a repeat, but my reply disappeared into the ether.
for your groaning pleasure... see Gas Prices - MSN Autos and punch in your zip code. |
Quote:
Look at the CPI data again. For Transportation Motor Fuel: Jan to Feb: -2.0% (this is the number you based your "action" on). Note that it's the change for one month, Jan to Feb 08. Dec to Jan: +1.2% Nov to Dec: +2.8% And look at what "they" are reporting for CPI Transportation Motor Fuel Feb 07 to Feb 08 +32.7%. Still think they're 'cooking the books', 'drinking the Koolaide,' etc.? Again, a little data to support your POV would be nice. You have the last word, I'm done with this thread... Emotion is the enemy of rational argument. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
I just think a government that calculates inflation this way is bogus. True inflation means comparing apples to apples. Don't say transportation is cheaper because people are trading a Hummer for a Prius. Don't say food prices are flat because people are giving up steak for chicken. By all means, in the real world we have to do this. But that has the potential to grossly underestimate true inflation. I'm not challenging your "personal" inflation, just saying it's not a legitimate way to measure true inflation in the economy. |
Quote:
2Cor521 |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
So, the problem may be that other branches of the goverment are choosing one of the CPI measures, which sounds like it models the real world well, as a basis for payouts to people in the real world? Would it help you if they also published a non-hedonistic model? I can see that that'd be useful but I'm not sure for what. |
Quote:
um, yeah, I'm angry as all get out too. When are we marching on Washington? I'm totally there |
Quote:
|
As an ER I spent less than $1000 on gasoline last year. If the price doubles to $6/gallon then I'll spend... less than $2000. Gas at some Maui stations has already gone through $4/gallon.
In 2006 I spent $1400 on gas. 2005: $1163. 2004: $1073. 2003, my first full year of ER, $922. See a pattern here? Me either. Before we blast each other on the percentage points, is this really a significant portion of one's budget? If the price of gas could derail an ER plan, is the plan sufficiently capitalized to begin with? These CPI questions are even more applicable to me since my federal pension's COLA is tied to whatever numbers the govt calculates. I'm certainly not going to attempt to retaliate by going out to buy my own COLA'd annuity. Quote:
|
Quote:
Let's start slow. Show me the stats of typical houses in typical locations tripling every 5 years. The NAR says the average home price doubles every 10 years (~7% CAGR) and it's in their best interest to inflate that number. Again, to stress the need to understand your personal situation without relying on the goverment or media to explain your life to you, let's look at my townhouse. I'm not saying that my situation is typical or even normal, but it is 100% typical for my personal situation. My wife and I purchased our townhouse for $263k six years ago. At the high point of the market for our neighborhood, similar models sold for $280k. Our current best offer is $247k and we expect to be able to sell for about $255k. You can figure out the CAGR yourself, but I can give you a hint, it's not 7%. |
Quote:
On the matter of basket substitution, I think I have a problem with a system thats supposed to measure cost of living adjustments incorporating the REACTION people have to cost of living changes. If I'm eating steak, the cost of steak should be in there. Not chicken or hamburger. I also dont agree that since my car, computer or television is subjectively "better", that as a result it costs me less. In fact, steak wrapped in BACON oughta be in there. Its what everyone really wants, right? ;) |
Speaking of bacon. Man I had some really good apple wood smoked stuff the other day. Im a bit disappointed Im all out. Im starting to get the twitches.
|
Costco has 2-3lb packages of apple wood smoked bacon, thin and thick cut. I think its about $8.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
Funny story. My MIL was telling a story of how she loved pig feet as a kid. So for her 80th birthday I got her some. Anyways they weren't as good as she remembered them ;) |
Quote:
Wait, does he get to play? |
I think you have to substitute turkey bacon. You dont necessarily get to remain within an animal family for a substitution.
Pigs feet can be kinda good if they're made right. Not what i'd call 'good eats' though. Yes, Gabe gets to play with it. We play tennis and baseball together on it. So far neither of us has spazzed out and thrown the remote through the tv set. Super Mario Galaxy allegedly has some sort of "play along" feature for kids to join in. As soon as I quit losing all my lives in 4 seconds, I might figure out how that works. I'm really impressed with the motion sensitive controllers, one in each hand. Very amusing to watch someone else play the game. |
That thing made my arms sore from the boxing game. Man Im getting old :p
|
Yeah, but all that exercise will come in handy the next time someone pisses you off and you wanna punch them.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
i saw one of the farmers at one of the NYC greenmarkets had some and will probably try it soon |
I can see some inflation creeping into our budget in 2 categories in particular (as per Quicken):
gas: +27% in the last 12 months groceries: +19% in the last 12 months (with no obvious change in driving or eating habits) Based on actual numbers for 2008 YTD, it looks like we might have reduced our gas consumption by 20-25% since the beginning of the year (it's not clear how we did it and we were not planning on reducing our gas consumption this year, but maybe we are just tired of being raped everytime we go to the pump). But groceries are on pace for another 16% increase this year. The saving grace though is that gas and groceries represent only about 2.7% and 10% of our overall annual budget respectively, so a 27% increase in gas prices and 19% increase in grocery prices translate to only a 2.6% overall inflation rate for our annual budget, well within the 3% built into our plan (most other expenses in our budget have either remained the same or decreased over the past year and therefore our overall inflation rate is even lower than the 2.6% quoted). Plus an increase of only 1.7% in our gross annual income (we are still working) would be enough to keep up with inflation. On the other hand my mom lives on a much smaller budget (SS benefits mostly) than we do and for her, food represents about 30% of her annual budget and gas about 7.5%. That gives her an inflation rate of 7.7% overall, but very little wiggle room to absorb that increase, and her SS benefits don't increase nearly enough each year to keep up with inflation. |
Quote:
|
I was not sure the CPI was BS before, this morning did it. CPI flat and mega-billions go to BS (meaning Bear Sterns, the previous "BS" does not mean Bear Sterns). What a system.
|
Come on, its a good number with excellent transparency.
I'm also sure there is very little organizational influence. Most certainly if there are 4-5 ways to factor something and half of them give higher inflationary figures than the other half, I know they'd pick the numbers that would make almost everyone in almost every part of the government upset. You know, all things being equal. Isnt it amazing how the feds can spin on a dime to bail out a financial firm, but we struggle to put money into education, health care, food and shelter for the poor, the health of social security/medicare, and large portions of a major US city are still in ruins three years after a storm? |
Quote:
|
Quote:
The Federal Reserve is not government exactly, though, even if we call them the feds. The Federal Reserve is a private company (but you knew that). Still, their speed was mind-boggling. Reminds me of that commercial for DSL, with the window washers dropping down the side of a building.... "THAT fast!" |
Election year might have something to do with the speed of light they are moving at.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
On the house price increase I did not mean to say house prices typically tripled every 5 years. Typically they barely keep up with inflation. What I say is they doubled or tripled in the last 5 years (it might have been 6 or so, I didn't look it up). I can get some Case-Shiller stats to back that up. That is a house price increase of 100% plus. Tripled might be had to find in the stats, doubling would not be. What was the reported CPI increase in the last 5 years? 16% from my source. That's about a 5 to 1 factor on that item. Can you buy that? I have the sources for Case-Shiller if you need them. Find for me anything in the world that went 5 to 1 the other way to make up for that. Want to try a few more? (Of course I realize house prices do not count.) P.S. We could try housing (which we just did), utilities, food, healthcare/medical, transportation, taxes, and insurance. You know, just the things most of us actually have to buy. It might take me awhile to find the stats but I'm sure they are not going to average anywhere near 16% over 5 years. I left out computers, TV's, and clothing; the things often discussed as going down, because they are minor items on my list. |
|
Good beer seems to cost about $1-$1.50 more a six pack this year than last year. Thats pissing me off...
|
Quote:
|
We just bought a laptop for $800 that would have been $1500 a few years ago. Neighbor just bought a 32" flatscreen LCD similar to the one we have except he paid $900 instead of $1400 like we did two years ago.
I've also noticed that with the gas rise smaller cars are more common again. Toyota Yaris, Honda Fit, Hyundai Accent etc. are taking over much of the former SUV turf. I've got no idea whether things like car prices and consumer electronics fit into CPI but if they do I'm curious how much of an offsetting effect they have? |
Ditto on the beer. There's been much press about some hops pricing crisis, I assume related to that.
|
I've also noted salmon and shrimp (two things I'm quite fond of) seem to be getting cheaper and cheaper. What used to be a sale price I'd jump at seems to be pretty much every day now.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
When I have to buy a TV or computer every week, and when the ones I really want dont cost $3000 and $1200, respectively, then they count. I suppose in the modern consumer lifestyle where you buy mature electronic products hand over fist, have $30k in credit card debt, expense half your meals out, have your health care paid for, etc...its all good. |
Everything you wanted to know about manipulation of reported government statistics like CPI:
Shadow Government Statistics » Blog Archive » 4. Consumer Price Index |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Mmmm MMMM! Fish filled with parasites packed into tiny polluted tanks!
Fortunately they taste just as good as wild caught! https://www.fishwelfare.net/projects/...atfishtank.jpg |
Quote:
|
Good news. Tequila is staying around the same! Woo all is right in the world...
|
Took off my flip flops stepped on a pop top...
|
Quote:
What you might not believe is that even though I feel this way about the rigged CPI and that we are getting hosed right now, my gut feeling is that inflation might not last that much longer. If the Fed starts up the printing presses, then I'll change my mind. I think odds are that we will be seeing a deflationary stage within a year or so. Housing is already deflating. When the government numbers show the CPI down for 20 months in a row, the BLS will figure out the CPI is being under reported and will scramble to change things so that on paper we are no longer deflating. When politics gets involved in influencing markets that is what happens. The full circle of life. |
Quote:
|
Shrimp depends on what I'm doing with it. Asian tiger shrimp is fine for most things, as is Kroger farm raised pink dyed salmon. I wouldn't make lomi salmon out of it.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
1/1/08-3/14/08: $13,650.91 on everything
1/1/07-3/14/07: $14,215.75 on everything Negative year-over-year CPI-P inflation in the 2Cor521 household. 2Cor521 |
We pulled our TCL (Total Cost of Life) down in ER, but that was at the expense of not eating out that much (too much time to shop and cook), not traveling as much (we're not stressed out from our jobs anymore, and theres plenty of interesting stuff within a short drive), and by leveraging free time to squeeze down costs.
There is a bottom limit to it without pinching your TQL though... |
Quote:
Did you catch the guy on Kudlow tonight? I don't remember his name. He said the only zero anybody in America believes when it comes to inflation is the zero's in 100 which is the dollar/yen, 100 which is the price of oil, and 1000 which is the price of gold. |
forgot his name, but he is always on kudlow. works for some place called strategas
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Yep, agave went from about 5c a kilo in the early 90's to almost two bucks by a year or two ago.
Try out THAT inflationary pressure...>:D |
Quote:
|
Quote:
Nords, gas is only one part of the energy picture. You might be paying $1000 more in gas, AND $2000 more in heat/electric depending where you live. That could be 10% of a low-end ER budget. Then you have to factor in that when gas doubles, that causes significant increases in production and transportation costs for all goods. It's not just what you pay at the pump. People (like me) who based their ER on factors like past personal spending, and past reported (and personal) inflation are finding the numbers going a bit blooey these days, and the more you have LBYM in the past, the less fat there is to cut to offset increases in basic necessities. I already make risotto at home, and we hardly ever eat out. Our clothing expenditures for last year were $200. I could make that zero.. but for how long? and how much is that penny-pinching really going to offset in the grand scheme of things? The baseline unavoidable costs are far more significant the more modest your aspirations. |
Quote:
|
South Florida inflation rate is largest in nation -- South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com
Quote:
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Man thats it. Im moving out to the country and start making white lightning..
I will live off the land inflation be damned! Hey that could be my new sig.. |
Quote:
Are you sure you have the right numbers ? This equals $5,460 a month and I know you always post that you live on a lot less . |
I think he forgot to separate out the $4300 a month for hookers.
|
Quote:
|
NM
(going in the 'sheep' direction) ;) |
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:57 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.