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-   -   are we spoiled? (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/are-we-spoiled-34781.html)

teejayevans 04-12-2008 05:21 PM

are we spoiled?
 
The market has only been down for what, 6 months?
Maybe 10% from its high?
We're not even officially in a recession and people are
whining about when will it end?
Or do we have too many business channels, and too
much internet?

Think about the Japanese, nikkei is 1/3 if what it was
at it's high back in 1989.
TJ

W2R 04-12-2008 05:43 PM

Turn off the TV! :2funny:

You're right. I haven't been investing long, but this doesn't seem nearly as bad as 2000 & 2001.

I think what is bothering people is not what has actually happened in the market so far, as much as fear of what this may portend for the future: fear of the unknown. The media are playing on these fears.

With this being an election year, perception is everything!

Notmuchlonger 04-12-2008 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teejayevans (Post 642376)
The market has only been down for what, 6 months?
Maybe 10% from its high?
We're not even officially in a recession and people are
whining about when will it end?
Or do we have too many business channels, and too
much internet?

Think about the Japanese, nikkei is 1/3 if what it was
at it's high back in 1989.
TJ

I dont think its a "we" thing. I think its a few very vocal worriers. They do enough worrying for everyone :)

HFWR 04-12-2008 07:55 PM

I try to worry for 10-15 minutes every morning, to get it out of the way...

dmpi 04-12-2008 08:40 PM

I think people in the stock market have kept a level head & stayed mostly calm. But if people think today's inflation and unemployment is high, they must of not been around during the 70s.

RockOn 04-12-2008 09:03 PM

Not to worry, Uncle Ben has your back. Uncle Paul wasn't so caring (foolish). ;D

Notmuchlonger 04-12-2008 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn (Post 642421)
Not to worry, Uncle Ben has your back. Uncle Paul wasn't so caring (foolish). ;D

Hey as long as you keep track of that CPI every day. You will be ok ! ;D

Texas Proud 04-13-2008 12:44 AM

This is another problem with the 24/7 mentality of people and the cable new channels with nothing else to do....

Maybe we need another "OJ" type trial to take them off the economy.... but I don't wish anyone to be killed to get us there...

Well... maybe if the got Bin-Laden... that might get them to change...

ladelfina 04-13-2008 03:13 AM

I'm not worried about how things are NOW.. I worry about serious solvency and systemic stability issues that have been temporarily swept under the larger rug of the Fed. It's not apparent that we can wish away the radioactive waste of the MBSs/CDOs/CLOs, etc. We haven't even gotten anywhere near the half-life of these yet, it seems to me.

Texas Proud, psst Iran. Slightly larger potential for fatalities there. (But you're right... OJ redux would garner more attention. ;) ) P.S. They're doing an AWfully good job, though, with keeping track of Obama's bowling scores and his elitist preference for the exotic drink known as "orange juice"...!!!

TromboneAl 04-13-2008 08:27 AM

Quote:

I think its a few very vocal worriers.
Katie Couric, Brian Williams, and Charles Gibson.

2B 04-13-2008 08:45 AM

The news focus may have become broader but I remember losing almost half of my portfolio in the early 70's. We ain't seen nothin' yet.

You have to tune out the hysterical hype. It really isn't any different than the early 70's. We were all doomed then just like now -- depending on who you listen to.

Personally, I believe the "big one" will come one day. That's when PE's will be in single digits and dividends will be 8% because we all "know" they will be cut soon. That reflects at least a 50% drop in stocks. I just don't believe this is it -- yet.

I still believe that what is happening is a seizing up of the normal credit markets that will have to thaw out over the next couple of months. The basic economies are still ok but rattled by the credit squeeze. The Fed and now the BOE are cutting rates. The ECB will soon feel the crunch and eat their "holier than thou" inflation fighting words. Then the markets and economies will get back into shape for awhile. The aftermath may be the time to get really worried.

Walt34 04-13-2008 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmpi (Post 642420)
But if people think today's inflation and unemployment is high, they must of not been around during the 70s.

I vaguely remember seeing all that in the paper and on TV, but then I was in my mid-20's, just established in a fun and exciting job, single, had a motorcycle & an airplane, and the primary interest was to get laid.;D Who cared about the economy?

mathjak107 04-13-2008 10:07 AM

have things changed for us that much now? ha ha ha

kjpliny 04-13-2008 10:39 AM

According to some, we ain't seen nothing yet...

https://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcas...008-0412-2.mp3

If the statistics mentioned are even remotely close to being true, it would be difficult to simply discard this argument of hyperinflation as pure rubbish. Who really knows what will happen?

Independent 04-13-2008 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teejayevans (Post 642376)
The market has only been down for what, 6 months?
Maybe 10% from its high?
We're not even officially in a recession and people are
whining about when will it end?
Or do we have too many business channels, and too
much internet?

Think about the Japanese, nikkei is 1/3 if what it was
at it's high back in 1989.
TJ

Are we spoiled? This guy thinks so:

Quote:

During presidential elections, when candidates postulate this or that "crisis" for which each is the indispensable and sufficient cure, economic hypochondria is encouraged, so a sense of suffering is rampant. Recently The Wall Street Journal, like Joseph Conrad contemplating the Congo, surveyed today's economic jungle and cried, "The horror! The horror!"

Declines in housing values and the stock market are causing some Americans to delay retirement. A Kansas City man had been eager to retire to Arizona but now, the Journal says, "figures he'll stay put for another couple of years." He is 59.

So this is a facet of today's hydra-headed "crisis" -- the man must linger in the labor force until, say, 62.
RealClearPolitics - Articles - Economy Always in 'Crisis' in Election Years

I don't always agree with George Will, but I think he's pretty accurate this time.

All politicians know that one job requirement is that you must always "feel the voters' pain", and never say that things have been worse before or (worse yet) that some people didn't make very good decisions. That would be political disaster.

I think the same principle holds for TV news, the spin is usually that ordinary citizens don't confuse dreams with plans, or made bad decisions.

People get to hear what they want to hear, and then are surprised when reality catches up with them.

ladelfina 04-13-2008 04:39 PM

Interesting. Does the WSJ often cry, "the horror!"?

That alone could be a tiny clue.
Maybe this time the boy is not crying 'wolf'.

Independent, I agree with your last two sentences, though.

Notmuchlonger 04-13-2008 05:18 PM

I love George Will.

"Oh? The idea that protracted golden years of idleness is a universal right is a delusion of recent vintage. Deranged by the entitlement mentality fostered by a metastasizing welfare state, Americans now have such low pain thresholds that suffering is defined as a slight delay in beginning a subsidized retirement often lasting one-third of the retiree's adult lifetime."

;D;D;D

RockOn 04-13-2008 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger (Post 642455)
Hey as long as you keep track of that CPI every day. You will be ok ! ;D

I think the BS (fudged CPI) numbers come out this week, last month zero, this month below zero? :confused: It's coming....... as soon as he BS numbers start to show negative inflation and it starts sounding like deflation and depression, then.......

You'll be saying "I guess the numbers were mistakenly calculated too low and need to be adjusted upward", I can't wait. :) Forget the chicken, steak for the grill! I'll be here to let you know ;D;D

Notmuchlonger 04-13-2008 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn (Post 642768)
I think the BS numbers come out this week, last month zero, this month below zero? :confused: It's coming....... as soon as he BS numbers start to show negative inflation and it starts sounding like deflation and depression, then.......

You'll be saying "I guess the numbers were mistakenly calculated too low and need to be adjusted upward", I can't wait. :) I'll be here to let you know ;D;D

I know the number is wrong. However its not "rigged". Its just the way they figure it out ;)

ladelfina 04-13-2008 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger (Post 642769)
I love George Will.

"Oh? The idea that protracted golden years of idleness is a universal right is a delusion of recent vintage. Deranged by the entitlement mentality fostered by a metastasizing welfare state, Americans now have such low pain thresholds that suffering is defined as a slight delay in beginning a subsidized retirement often lasting one-third of the retiree's adult lifetime."

;D;D;D


Yeah.. one might almost buy into it if George Will actually did some MANUAL LABOR, or produced anything himself other than self-satisfied blather about politics and baseball.

I'd think he's spent more than a few "protracted golden years of idleness" behind home plate, or in someone's SkyBox.

He's metastasized himself. The bow tie is a common "punditonoma" excrescense. Tucker Carlson has an early manifestation thereof.. probably too late for Will, but I hope Tucker seeks help in time, now that he's behind Alberto Gonzales in the unemployment line and has plenty of opportunity to seek treatment.


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