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Midpack 07-14-2008 06:40 PM

Staying the Course?
 
As simple as possible...

Notmuchlonger 07-14-2008 06:42 PM

No I purchased some more funds..

oop poll just showed up

al_bundy 07-14-2008 06:49 PM

cashed out early june, was thinking about buying in today but the market didn't stay up

Ronstar 07-14-2008 08:39 PM

For the last few years i didnt invest in equities (other than my 401k) because I thought the market was overpriced. Now I'm starting to invest periodically

audreyh1 07-14-2008 08:44 PM

I was crazy enough to rebalance last friday (which meant selling bonds and buying equities). I'm sure I'm too early, but my life is just too busy to keep checking my portfolio balance and my "rebalance trigger" fired good. My total portfolio is down >13.5% from it's peak last October.

If the market goes down a lot more, I guess I'll be rebalancing again, but if it doesn't I won't be taking any action and now I can go do other things and not pay much attention until (unless) the market drops twice what it has so far.

FWIW, one of the fields in my rebalance spreadsheet is how many years expenses are covered by my cash+bonds allocation. Last Oct it was 16 years. Now it's dropped down to 14.3 years. I guess if it drops below 10 years I might be tempted to sit tight and stop rebalancing. We'll see how low that number gets during this bear market.

Audrey

CuppaJoe 07-14-2008 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy (Post 683244)
... was thinking about buying in today but the market didn't stay up

Way to go, Bundy; if the deal gets better, cancel the plan.;)

As for me, didn't vote because it would distort the facts.

FIREd 07-14-2008 08:53 PM

I always maintain a fairly conservative asset allocation (65%-70% stocks) and so far I have been able to comfortably handle that level of risk without surrendering to panic. I am buying pretty much only stocks right now (mostly small caps and emerging markets lately) in order to bring my AA back to about 70% stocks. I am also buying some REITs. The only time I bought bonds this year was during the rebound in April-May.

Marquette 07-14-2008 09:33 PM

We'll put $4k into the market this month, just like every month. and then another chunk into our cash reserves, just like every month. I did make our AA more aggressive a while ago.

W2R 07-14-2008 09:55 PM

I made a plan and I'm sticking to it pretty well. I have been slowly DCA'ing into the equity portion of that plan from my windfall money, and I have continued doing that at the planned rate.

So far, so good. Since much of my money has been in cash/MM/bonds while I slowly move into equities, I have only lost around 2% and I have made that up (plus added extra) from my paycheck.

Also, gotta say it... "Pssst!! Wellesley" is 30% of my nestegg.

theHundt 07-14-2008 09:57 PM

I'm in the same boat as Marquette, although my engine is a bit smaller :-). I put the same amount into cash reserves and investments every month... I'm almost completely in small caps for my roth and taxable account and it's been pretty brutal, but I'm only 31 and that's the level of risk that I've chosen. My 401k has held up much better but it's still not pretty.

By brutal I mean that I did something silly the other day and looked at how much my average stock was off it's 52-week high... and the AVERAGE % off was around 50 :-\ I didn't buy any of these at the 52 week high and am still ahead on some, but that was painful to see. I've only been buying individual equities for about 4 years, and it's been a wild ride thus far.

CyclingInvestor 07-14-2008 10:55 PM

Almost 50, retired almost 2 years, still 100% individual stocks
(since 1993), so I guess I am "staying the course".

Down 7.6% for year, but earnings and dividends keep going up, so no worries.

laurence 07-14-2008 11:00 PM

Moved another 6k+ into equities this month, staying the course. I'm 33 so I'm looking forward to "Gee grandpa, you bought into the S&P when it was trading at 10% of it's current number?"

Rambler 07-15-2008 06:00 AM

Dumped a bunch of cash into stocks yesterday, ordered before market opened, lost a bundle, but will keep dca'ing as it goes down. I think the saying goes, "what goes down, must come up" by Newton Isaac, or was that the other way around....this dyslexia can get you into trouble when buying stocks...:duh:

R

al_bundy 07-15-2008 06:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CuppaJoe (Post 683324)
Way to go, Bundy; if the deal gets better, cancel the plan.;)

As for me, didn't vote because it would distort the facts.

the futures are down big today and everyone is expecting the world to end, i think we may finish up

StJohnsWood 07-15-2008 06:40 AM

Buying like crazy now so in 15-20 years I can say boy wasn't 2008 a great time to buy

Dawg52 07-15-2008 06:42 AM

Just heard some dude on Bloomberg say he thinks the market will decline another 20%. Jimmy Rogers says Fed is screwing up big time and markets will pay the price even more. Hmmmm.........wish I had listened to some of these guys earlier.

DVY owners, have you sold or holding? Contains a ton of financials. Hard to see financials doing anything for quite sometime. What are you guys buying that say you are buying?

73ss454 07-15-2008 06:52 AM

I'm in DVY at $69 and holding, still get a dividend.

I also hold a bunch of financials and holding so far.

Dawg, don't quit on us now.

Eagle43 07-15-2008 07:04 AM

Like the guy said who fell out of a 30 story building: "So far, so good."

No change. Staying the course.

ziggy29 07-15-2008 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 (Post 683435)
Just heard some dude on Bloomberg say he thinks the market will decline another 20%. Jimmy Rogers says Fed is screwing up big time and markets will pay the price even more. Hmmmm.........wish I had listened to some of these guys earlier.

The problem with listening to them earlier is that sometimes they are disastrously wrong.

Rogers himself has moved to Singapore and is urging everyone into commodities and such.

Moemg 07-15-2008 07:36 AM

I'm holding but after this is over and I hope it's soon I'll probably go a little more conservative . I'm at 70% stocks and 20% bonds . I'll take it down a notch to 60/40.

retire@40 07-15-2008 08:22 AM

I'm buying equities and REITs. I haven't sold anything since the Clinton years when I sold some long-term bonds after interest rates dropped and I realized a large capital gain on them.

I do all my rebalancing by purchasing with new money.

Sure, I'm taking a beating right now in the market, but I'm sure it's mostly a give-back of unrealized gains than a loss of principal. I'm still adding more every month to my net worth than is being taken away. I can go back to working full-time and overtime to add even more..........nah.

Running_Man 07-15-2008 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 (Post 683435)
Just heard some dude on Bloomberg say he thinks the market will decline another 20%. Jimmy Rogers says Fed is screwing up big time and markets will pay the price even more. Hmmmm.........wish I had listened to some of these guys earlier.

DVY owners, have you sold or holding? Contains a ton of financials. Hard to see financials doing anything for quite sometime. What are you guys buying that say you are buying?


My concern on DVY is that by the time the financials hit bottom and have driven DVY down, they will be replaced in the index for having cut their dividends. It is less of an index and more of a mechanical trading system from what I have read on it's stock selection. I spent a little time looking into the timing of when a stock is changed but I don't think they are actually eliminated from the Dividend Achievers until they actually cut their dividend by which time it has long since been priced in.

DangerMouse 07-15-2008 08:42 AM

We are 45% cash and have been so for years so it's not been quite so terrifying to see the markets plunge. I must admit we are sleeping better at night to know that nearly half of our portfolio is earning 8%.

New money in the market this year has been funded mainly thru 401k contributions. I maxed out before I quit my job, DH is almost done for the year. Other than that we probably invest another $3k a month in mutual funds and individual stocks thru DRIP plans. No plan to change that at this time. However, we did perform a review of our individual stocks recently at cut loose a few.

RunningBum 07-15-2008 08:45 AM

Staying the course, but it's not easy. As the bad news and gloomy outlook in the media continue, the downward trend gains momentum, but I'm also worried about being among the last to sell, and not getting back in quickly enough, so I'll grit my teeth and hang on.

aida2003 07-15-2008 09:06 AM

As much as it can be painful we continue DCA'ing in 401k's and RothIRA's into mostly equities. We also continue taxable DCA'ing. However we sold two 'dog' DRIP plans after reading that it's GOOD to do tax-loss harvesting. In return I hope BUD deal will be closed by YE, so the 'dogs' would offset gains on BUD.
I'm considering to re-open the same 'dog' DRIP plans and invest the left over money after the sale and see how we'll do then. This is part of our 'fun money' so it won't hurt very much if we lose (and learn that we're bad stock-pickers), but maybe we'll win :confused:;D.

FinanceDude 07-15-2008 09:26 AM

DCA into retirement accounts. If the major indexes drop another 5%, I will be buying Spyders and Diamonds and Cubes, oh my.........:)

Marquette 07-15-2008 12:28 PM

Here are the emails from my wife:

Vanguard is down to 29.94

We bought dodge and cox at 50.47. it is currently at 38.65

I just finished increasing our weekly investments.

That's why I like her.

CitricAcid 07-15-2008 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marquette (Post 683723)
Here are the emails from my wife:

Vanguard is down to 29.94

We bought dodge and cox at 50.47. it is currently at 38.65

I just finished increasing our weekly investments.

That's why I like her.

Haha, doesn't mess around, straight to the point. She is a straight shooter with upper management written all over her.

SecondCor521 07-15-2008 02:59 PM

Still 100% SP 500 index funds. When I am employed again, I will be tempted to set my 401(k) contribution to 50% of my salary for a while to take advantage of what seems to be a buying opportunity as well as to max it out for 2008.

2Cor521

2B 07-15-2008 03:23 PM

I'm buying in my SEPP and 401k every pay period. I'm glad I've become a fixed asset allocator at 60/40. My instinct for the last 20 or 30 S&P points has been to go 100% equities. So far, I've successfully resisted the urge. I was 90% until last August. I guess in retrospect I was a genius. :rolleyes:

BTW - Initial earnings are beating consensus and last years earnings. Overall, things look pretty good in the first week of earnings season. None of this seems to matter for more than a few seconds. Everyone is too busy panicing about what might happen to the financial stocks. If it continues its current decline, Bank of America should be at zero by the time its earning are actually announced on July 21. That ought to be a wild day for BAC.

ladelfina 07-15-2008 05:10 PM

Quote:

We are 45% cash and have been so for years so it's not been quite so terrifying to see the markets plunge. I must admit we are sleeping better at night to know that nearly half of our portfolio is earning 8%.
Dangermouse, where is cash getting 8%? Inquiring minds want to know...

audreyh1 07-15-2008 05:34 PM

I'm pretty impressed that 90% of posters are staying the course! It's been a pretty scary downturn so far.

Good to know I'm in good company even if I am insane.....

Audrey

Notmuchlonger 07-15-2008 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 683909)
I'm pretty impressed that 90% of posters are staying the course! It's been a pretty scary downturn so far.

Good to know I'm in good company even if I am insane.....

Audrey

Im going down with the ship. Maybe we could have a band playing on the deck!

HFWR 07-15-2008 05:55 PM

Staying the course according to the asset allocation I pulled out of my ass my scientifically chosen asset allocation. IGR was triggered today, so I bought 350 shares. Otherwise, sinking holding fast...

Bikerdude 07-15-2008 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 683909)
I'm pretty impressed that 90% of posters are staying the course! It's been a pretty scary downturn so far.

Good to know I'm in good company even if I am insane.....

Audrey

I think polls/threads such as this one would be much more informative (at least to me) if they included information as to each posters retirement status. Has the board ever considered adding this information? Could it be done like the 'dryer sheet' icon?

It seems as though 'staying the course' is different for someone ten years from retirement and one who is already retired.

Would anyone else be interested?

BTW I'm retired and staying the course. :)

lightwaves 07-15-2008 06:12 PM

Biker Dude,

I agree with your suggestion 100%. It is frustrating to not know the retirement status of the posters. To me it adds a great deal more context to people's questions and answers.

I am planning to retire in about 1 year and am staying the course and planning to buy additional equity this week (DCA).

Bimmerbill 07-15-2008 06:42 PM

Have not touched mine. 20 years until I start withdrawing. I still contribute 18% of my salary and have not changed the asset allocations in a year+.

newporttony 07-15-2008 06:50 PM

A few years from F/T retirement but still aggressively rebalancing my 70/30 portfolio. The good news is that I think I have enough realized capital losses to last a lifetime.

audreyh1 07-15-2008 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bikerdude (Post 683938)
BTW I'm retired and staying the course. :)

Same here - I rebalanced (bought more equities) even though I am already retired.

BTW - this is my second bear market since retiring. During 2000-2002 I had the (good fortune?) to be averaging into the market. This time I get to experience a bear market while fully invested. :o

Audrey

haha 07-15-2008 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bikerdude (Post 683938)
I think polls/threads such as this one would be much more informative (at least to me) if they included information as to each posters retirement status. Has the board ever considered adding this information? Could it be done like the 'dryer sheet' icon?

It seems as though 'staying the course' is different for someone ten years from retirement and one who is already retired.

Would anyone else be interested?

BTW I'm retired and staying the course. :)

During the early period on this board people more or less knew one another's status. Who was retired, who had COLA pensions, whose husbands or wives were still working at professional careers, etc. But there are so many people now that it gets confusing.

FYI, I am single, retired for over 20 years, no pension or SS (though I will take SS eventually)-and I would not even consider selling any equities now, other than to realize tax losses and re-deploy into similar investments. I have not even done any of this. Of course I have handpicked my stocks, and they almost all are income producers. It is conceivable and maybe even likely that I would never need to sell stocks for living expenses.

I had a lot of cash reserves, some of which I have invested too early it seems. But one almost never does investing optimally. Good enough is an adequate target.

Ha

Moemg 07-15-2008 08:02 PM

I'm retired and bear markets always make me nauseous but I stay the course . I do have a moderate cola pension and ss survivor benefits . I've been investing since the early 80's so I 've experienced the markets wild ride and frankly I hate roller coasters .

RichoRosai 07-15-2008 08:13 PM

warning: complete and utter noob post; please ignore

I've lost a lot since buying the index fund, but I'm still looking forward to dumping everything I've saved since then into the same fund as soon as possible (based on my understanding of the underlying idea of 'Who knows when it will start going back up?'). The only thing that's causing me to hesitate is the cost of a dollar in yen dropping the last few days and the tantalizing thought that it might continue to drop. I guess I shouldn't be greedy and just do it now while it's at least lower than last week.

joesxm3 07-15-2008 08:19 PM

I am still w*rking and would like to stop in four or five years but who knows.

I had been around 53% equities and increasing to 59% when the recent drop started so I guess I was already in defensive posture. I sold some China funds last fall when they were high and also dumped some left over loser from the tech boom.

In the past month I have added about 1% US total market index, 1% asia and china, 1% latin america and .5% africa and middle east. I also put all of my 401K deposits into diversified international. I am now at about 58% equity with about 39% international.

I am trying to get some VNQ REIT and I bought 1% more yesterday but I only have about 2.5% in REIT and hope to add more up to 5% or 7% as a hedge against expected inflation.

I will probably buy more of all in the next few months. As someone recently wrote "Don't worry if you miss buying at the bottom. You will have a lot more chances in the next few months.".

Marquette 07-15-2008 09:36 PM

Added pertinents to my sig... still working ("Well, I wouldn't call it working, Bob"), two incomes, no kids, etc.

HFWR 07-16-2008 07:49 AM

Single, 53.92 yo, nw about 05.mil...

Canned Retired from semiconductor megaconglomocorp with subsidized health insurance. Now re-employed :'( and will be eligible for a modest non-cola pension in five years. Target is five years, when I'll be eligible for the aforementioned pension, and close to 59.5, then 62...

Mr. Market is currently horse-laughing at my plan.

401K: 10% IGR, 10% PCRIX, 15% SP500, 10% RUSS2K, 10% VGK, 10% VPL, 10% VWO, 20% ST BOND, 5% CASH.
ROTH: VISVX
TAXABLE: VTSMX, VMMXX

maddythebeagle 07-16-2008 07:52 AM

Went 100% stocks and figure having cash sitting around right now is kinda dumb...put more to work...

limpid lizard 07-16-2008 07:54 AM

I have two accounts. The Vanguard is all index and 60/40. Looking at it two days ago, I was down about 4% from when I retired March of 2007. I was DCA'ing into stock up until last week when I ran out of MM funds.

My other account is mostly index bonds, with a little index equities. I live off of this account and it is down about 30% since March of 2007. That includes my withdrawls. I have another 3 years left in it, but watching it shrink through withdrawls without seeing the other account increase is a little nerve racking.

al_bundy 07-16-2008 10:48 AM

reading some rumblings today that we may be close to the end of this bear market. theory is that we'll see the SP500 take one more dive to 1180 or so and it's off to the races

kcowan 07-16-2008 10:51 AM

Beware the financial pornography that emanates from The Street. No one know how bad it will get.

Credit Crisis Losses Pass $1.6 Trillion as Credit Contraction Ensures Recession :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
What Bridgewater Resources thinks: $1.6 Million in Credit Losses and counting. Not yet all written off!

DblDoc 07-16-2008 11:15 AM

I voted maintaining - although in reality we're slipping behind on our targeted 80:20 AA as the market losses exceed our ability to keep up ^-^

Still accumulating and ~ 10 years from RE

DD

haha 07-16-2008 12:44 PM

Looks like stocks shoot up as well as down-WFC up 25% so far today! And their profit was down, their loss loss provision increased. Only revenues were better than expected. However, they did give a good dividend raise.

I am happy to say that at present, WFC is my only bank stock. I am down to 12% fixed, plus another 3% "enterprising fixed" such as beaten down corporate inflation adjusted bonds. So, if we get a good hard rally, I'll look to lighten up once more in a tax-deferred account. It shouldn't take long at 10%/day.

While it has been easy to be transfixed by the distress in credit markets and banks, there are a lot of other cheap stocks out there. And of course many not so cheap. :)

Ha

Meadbh 07-19-2008 10:36 AM

Staying the course. Unfortunately, cash flow is such that I am unable to DCA into the market right now.

Interesting to experience this ~5 years pre desired FIRE date. All I can say is, I'm glad I haven't pulled the plug yet.

rogersteciak 07-19-2008 11:02 AM

While history may not repeat itself, it does rhyme (according to Mark Twain).

How Bad Could Things Get?
How Bad Could Things Get? - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com

Uncomfortable Answers to Questions on the Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/19/bu...my/19econ.html

d 07-19-2008 12:30 PM

i'm increasing the number of shares and the $ amount invested, but the decline in prices is decreasing my equity %.

ikubak 07-19-2008 04:02 PM

Staying the course......what other option is there? Sell when the market goes down and then buy back in when it goes back up? I'll just keep doing what I have been doing and I'll keep my 80/20 ratio in my retirement accounts.

hankster 07-19-2008 10:26 PM

Staying the course with approx. 65/35 AA. Planning 9 years to ER at 59 1/2.

RDamien 07-20-2008 07:33 AM

Staying the course. 37 years old, 70/30 AA and if anything I'm wondering if I should go higher into stocks. I feel fine about it. Now whether that's me being naive or smart is debatable I guess ;)

Maybe I'm crazy but I'm kind of excited about it.

ESRBob 07-21-2008 09:50 PM

Nice thread -- staying the course and just did our rebalancing earlier this month. Something about 'stocks down 20%' made me feel it was time to dust off the old rebalancing spreadsheet I'd been putting off all year. When (if!) it goes down another 20% I'll do it again, but probably less comfortably.

Retired and living off SWR from assets. Not feeling much pinch yet as we are 40% stocks, 40% bonds and 20% other stuff like commodities, oil and commercial real estate.

audreyh1 07-22-2008 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ESRBob (Post 687268)
Nice thread -- staying the course and just did our rebalancing earlier this month. Something about 'stocks down 20%' made me feel it was time to dust off the old rebalancing spreadsheet I'd been putting off all year. When (if!) it goes down another 20% I'll do it again, but probably less comfortably.

Same here - ugh! At least until bonds+cash reduces to 10 years expenses - that'll give me pause!

Audrey

toofrugalformycat 07-22-2008 05:19 PM

Staying the course at 60/40 equities/fixed, waiting until 5% out to do anything. Last bear market I procrastinated until about 6.5% out (white knuckles), may do that again because I'm a chicken at times.

unclemick 07-22-2008 05:51 PM

Retired/er layed off Jan 1993. Started investing 1966. Should be used to 'stay the course.'

But then I've been thru many a 4th quarter of Saint's football.

As for retirement - full auto - for the serious money. Lifestrategy moderate for over ten years and now Target 2015.

But hormones being what they - can't resist peeking, putzing with some side money, even though the main event Vanguard computers just rebalance away and don't get excited.

Bring on football season! I hear the Pats as usual have a good football team. As if my balanced index really cares.

If it gets too wooky - I'll start measuring my SEC yield of Target 2015 to the second deicmal place and mumble Pssst - Wellesley shoulda bought pssst - Wellesley!

Geaux Saint's again this season(hope springs eternal) - tough it thru on my 3.2X% SEC yield if I must, stay the course.

heh heh heh - :coolsmiley:

kumquat 07-23-2008 12:31 AM

Uncle....... you forgot the "psstt...."

HFWR 07-23-2008 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toofrugalformycat (Post 687690)
Staying the course at 60/40 equities/fixed, waiting until 5% out to do anything. Last bear market I procrastinated until about 6.5% out (white knuckles), may do that again because I'm a chicken at times.

I had my triggers set at 10%, but with recent volatility, I bumped IGR, PCRIX, and VWO to 15%. Was trading to often...

Dawg52 07-23-2008 06:27 PM

Boy, nice day for the portfolio even though the dow was only up 30 points. EMC, STON, MO, GE, T, and CZN all had a nice day. EMC was up almost 14%.:) Too bad I'm still in the red with it.:(

W2R 07-23-2008 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 (Post 688227)
Boy, nice day for the portfolio even though the dow was only up 30 points. EMC, STON, MO, GE, T, and CZN all had a nice day. EMC was up almost 14%.:) Too bad I'm still in the red with it.:(

I am ecstatic at this upturn!! I have great hopes. :)

laurence 07-23-2008 09:40 PM

We spent, what, a week in bear territory? This upturn seems too soon. I am reticent, music man. :-X

haha 07-23-2008 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by laurencewill (Post 688293)
We spent, what, a week in bear territory? This upturn seems too soon. I am reticent, music man. :-X

I find it hard to guess the direction of the market. I will say though, that bear markets usually don't start when stocks have gone nowhere for 10 years- which is exactly what the S&P had done until this last little bounce.

But individual stocks are another matter. Whatever happens in the next few months, GE for example will be much higher a few years down the road than it is now, and an holder will have gotten healthy and growing dividends in the meantime.

I think their hook-up with Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund points the way to their future. Immelt is a visionary, light bulbs and washer/dryers are a thing of GE's past. They are being spun off rather than sold because he doesn't want to spend any more management time messing with it, and I think they were not getting very good bids.

Abu Dhabi and GE Capital will each invest $4 billion and leverage it up to $40B to create new infrastructure investments in Abu Dhabi. I expect GE Capital's more consumer directed businesses will be sold, spun off or run off. Additionally, GE's share price will find support because Abu-Dhabi has vowed to be one of its 10 largest shareholders, buying in the market, not a private equity deal or capital injection.

It is likely that this train will not be sitting around for long.

It's my largest position.

Ha

Dawg52 07-24-2008 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha (Post 688312)
I find it hard to guess the direction of the market. I will say though, that bear markets usually don't start when stocks have gone nowhere for 10 years- which is exactly what the S&P had done until this last little bounce.

But individual stocks are another matter. Whatever happens in the next few months, GE for example will be much higher a few years down the road than it is now, and an holder will have gotten healthy and growing dividends in the meantime.

I think their hook-up with Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund points the way to their future. Immelt is a visionary, light bulbs and washer/dryers are a thing of GE's past. They are being spun off rather than sold because he doesn't want to spend any more management time messing with it, and I think they were not getting very good bids.

Abu Dhabi and GE Capital will each invest $4 billion and leverage it up to $40B to create new infrastructure investments in Abu Dhabi. I expect GE Capital's more consumer directed businesses will be sold, spun off or run off. Additionally, GE's share price will find support because Abu-Dhabi has vowed to be one of its 10 largest shareholders, buying in the market, not a private equity deal or capital injection.

It is likely that this train will not be sitting around for long.

It's my largest position.

Ha

It's close to my largest individual stock position. You got me licking my lips to buy a little more.:-\

Moemg 07-24-2008 07:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha (Post 688312)
I find it hard to guess the direction of the market. I will say though, that bear markets usually don't start when stocks have gone nowhere for 10 years- which is exactly what the S&P had done until this last little bounce.

But individual stocks are another matter. Whatever happens in the next few months, GE for example will be much higher a few years down the road than it is now, and an holder will have gotten healthy and growing dividends in the meantime.

I think their hook-up with Abu Dhabi Sovereign Fund points the way to their future. Immelt is a visionary, light bulbs and washer/dryers are a thing of GE's past. They are being spun off rather than sold because he doesn't want to spend any more management time messing with it, and I think they were not getting very good bids.

Abu Dhabi and GE Capital will each invest $4 billion and leverage it up to $40B to create new infrastructure investments in Abu Dhabi. I expect GE Capital's more consumer directed businesses will be sold, spun off or run off. Additionally, GE's share price will find support because Abu-Dhabi has vowed to be one of its 10 largest shareholders, buying in the market, not a private equity deal or capital injection.

It is likely that this train will not be sitting around for long.

It's my largest position.

Ha


I have some money on the sidelines that I'll be spending today .

cute fuzzy bunny 07-24-2008 08:07 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by haha (Post 688312)
bear markets usually don't start when stocks have gone nowhere for 10 years- which is exactly what the S&P had done until this last little bounce.

Yeah but do you really want to track from a level derived from overpriced non-companies and 80 PE's from irrational exuberance? If you take a chart of the last 15 years and forget about that 99/00 spike it looks like stocks are just about on the curve to where they should be. Maybe even a little bit overpriced still.

Bargains relative to stupid prices may not quite be the same as bargains relative to normal prices...

haha 07-24-2008 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moemg (Post 688346)
I have some money on the sidelines that I'll be spending today .

I wish I could always be this persuasive. :)

Ha

TromboneAl 07-24-2008 09:45 AM

2 Attachment(s)
That line is pretty arbitrary, based on what you decide to ignore. I'd say that either of these lines could also be justified:

ziggy29 07-24-2008 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl (Post 688417)
That line is pretty arbitrary, based on what you decide to ignore. I'd say that either of these lines could also be justified:

I think this would be a lot easier to analyze on a logarithmic scale.

cute fuzzy bunny 07-24-2008 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl (Post 688417)
That line is pretty arbitrary, based on what you decide to ignore. I'd say that either of these lines could also be justified:

Of course.

You could argue that the real story is following the long term trend for valuations that existed prior to 1990, as in your first chart. BTW, that was the only actual piece of identifiable financial message in the Ho$ux/JWR dynamic duo's routine...that stocks were expensive compared to long historic valuations and therefore shouldnt be owned. That would have had you out of stocks from about 1994 on. Although they backtracked around 2006 to say that prices were kinda okay in 2002-2003.

Or that "something changed in the modern era" and that the trend established just prior to the bubble reflects modern valuations based on global operations, the internet, productivity improvements, and/or some other change.

I think theres some rationale to that latter, but since market inefficiencies rarely run year after year after year, and finding a relatively clean trend that existed for 8 years before the bubble and for 7 years after, split the highs and lows.

Answer me three questions: do you think stocks were grossly overvalued in 98-00? Do you think stocks were reasonably cheap in 02/03? Do you think they were a little overpriced in 07?

My answer to all three of those is 'yes', which is born out by the chart I put up.

But I guess the real question is "do we mark todays relative price and valuations against the top of a bubble market, particularly when it might be tough to get everyone to agree on what the right measure of valuations are?"

haha 07-24-2008 10:16 AM

I think in recent years there has been a tendency for sectors to go through their own little bull and bear markets. So overall market metrics may not be too helpful.

Even the 2000-2002 bear did not involve all sectors. Look at MO and UST for examples. And the recent and perhaps ongoing financial bear certainly missed the E&P and Oil service sectors, while clobbering the refiners.

Horses for courses- just because they all can't run under today's conditions doesn't mean that some won't.

Ha

laurence 07-24-2008 10:31 AM

I wish you luck with your GE position.

statsman 07-24-2008 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire (Post 688254)
I am ecstatic at this upturn!! I have great hopes. :)

Once again, jinxed. I wouldn't consider it an upturn until we have a month in the plus column.

Dawg52 07-24-2008 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by statsman (Post 688482)
Once again, jinxed. I wouldn't consider it an upturn until we have a month in the plus column.

Yup, easy come.....easy go. :p

cute fuzzy bunny 07-24-2008 12:41 PM

Hey, the days not over yet.

Nothing is over until WE decide it is!!!

Was is over when the germans bombed pearl harbor?!?

Dawg52 07-24-2008 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny (Post 688523)
Hey, the days not over yet.

Nothing is over until WE decide it is!!!

Was is over when the germans bombed pearl harbor?!?

Step up to the plate and buy!:)

Purron 07-24-2008 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny (Post 688523)
Hey, the days not over yet.

Nothing is over until WE decide it is!!!

Was is over when the germans bombed pearl harbor?!?

Hey, wait a minute, the Germans didn't bomb Pearl Harbor. Oh, forget about it, he's on a roll8)

cute fuzzy bunny 07-24-2008 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 (Post 688534)
Step up to the plate and buy!:)


Unfortunately I dont have the mystic ability to make stocks go down.

Its generally when I want nothing to do with buying equities that we've settled to a bottom and things head up.

Not there yet.

unclemick 07-24-2008 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny (Post 688539)
Unfortunately I dont have the mystic ability to make stocks go down.

Its generally when I want nothing to do with buying equities that we've settled to a bottom and things head up.

Not there yet.

Ok ok - you all have convinced me to go finish mowing the lawn - I will check back after the market closes and pontificate.

BTW - my I say my Vanguard computer is rebalancing my Target Retirement while I mow - isn't she just a sweetie!

Hope the Norwegian widow doesn't get jealeous - she is trying to gather a little stash together to putz - but not quite yet.

heh heh heh - :coolsmiley:

Dawg52 07-24-2008 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny (Post 688539)
Unfortunately I dont have the mystic ability to make stocks go down.

Its generally when I want nothing to do with buying equities that we've settled to a bottom and things head up.

Not there yet.

Ok, repeat after me.......I hate frigging stocks......I hate frigging stocks.......
keep it going now.......I hate frigging stocks........

statsman 07-24-2008 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 (Post 688555)
Ok, repeat after me.......I hate frigging stocks......I hate frigging stocks.......
keep it going now.......I hate frigging stocks........

Hey, we finally lump-summed most of our taxable into Vanguard on Monday. Two decent days blown away by one really bad day, even with a 40/60 portfolio. I don't think there is a safe way to invest these days. I suppose we could have kept the funds in our money market earning 3+%, but I doubt it would stand the test of time for an early retirement.

Damned if we do, damned if we don't. :mad:

windsurf 07-24-2008 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by statsman (Post 688586)
Hey, we finally lump-summed most of our taxable into Vanguard on Monday. Two decent days blown away by one really bad day, even with a 40/60 portfolio. I don't think there is a safe way to invest these days. I suppose we could have kept the funds in our money market earning 3+%, but I doubt it would stand the test of time for an early retirement.

Damned if we do, damned if we don't. :mad:

Whoa!!!! I love this thread b/c it has everything to do with what this list is about. If the fluctuations of "days" are an issue, then the concept of some "years up" and some "down' must be a different religion. Though I don't really look at the philosophy of long term market fatih as a religion but rather as a belief system (like Buddhism which many people think of as a rellgion though it is not).

unclemick 07-24-2008 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by windsurf (Post 688594)
Whoa!!!! I love this thread b/c it has everything to do with what this list is about. If the fluctuations of "days" are an issue, then the concept of some "years up" and some "down' must be a different religion. Though I don't really look at the philosophy of long term market fatih as a religion but rather as a belief system (like Buddism which many people think of as a rellgion though it is not).

'God Looks After Drunkards, Fools and The United States of America.'

Pssst - Wellesley

Still need some lyrics to go with the music Vanguard computers make rebalancing balanced index.

The Norwegian widow says by October( well into the start of regular season) we'll have a better guestimate on the Saint's and stocks.

"Stay the Course." "Hurry up just stand there."

There now - don't we feel more better, all warm and smarmy!

heh heh heh - :duh: ;D.

windsurf 07-24-2008 04:51 PM

Amen, Brother! . . . er, I mean, Uncle.

Disappointed 07-24-2008 04:56 PM

(like Buddism which many people think of as a rellgion though it is not).

What is Buddism if not a religion?


mP

NW-Bound 07-24-2008 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Disappointed (Post 688664)
(like Buddhism which many people think of as a rellgion though it is not).
What is Buddhism if not a religion?
mP

The way I understand it, Buddhism teaches how one can find enlightenment, and how people can live in harmony, but does not really talk about a Creator of the Universe. So, Buddhism is really a philosophy of life, and does not ask for the answer to the ultimate question "Who is my Creator".

Over time, it evolves into a religion-like, with all the ritual beliefs that are common among its practitioners.

I might be corrected by more knowledgeable members.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny (Post 688523)
Hey, the days not over yet.
Nothing is over until WE decide it is!!!

Well, today 7/24/08 was over with the Dow dropping 283 points! :(

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 (Post 688534)
Step up to the plate and buy!:)

I was buying, I was buying... $20K worth, a small portion of the cash hoard. Same as several forum members, I have loads of cash, because I unloaded some positions earlier in the year, particularly my wife's megacorp stock in her 401k (a financial co!)

The day started out benignly enough. Several companies reported decent earnings, and even upped their guidance. So, I picked up some that I had sold earlier in the year, such as GR. Slowly, slowly they drifted into the red. When that happens, I have to console myself with the fact that I buy them back at a lower price than when I sold. I didn't make money, just lose less than if I buy-and-hold.

When a good news doesn't prop up stocks, it's BLEAK. I am saying the bearish sentiment is still there. Investors do not believe the company's own outlook.

Quote:

Originally Posted by statsman (Post 688586)
Hey, we finally lump-summed most of our taxable into Vanguard on Monday. Two decent days blown away by one really bad day, even with a 40/60 portfolio. I don't think there is a safe way to invest these days. I suppose we could have kept the funds in our money market earning 3+%, but I doubt it would stand the test of time for an early retirement.

Damned if we do, damned if we don't. :mad:

The question is which way would you be more damned. >:D

I still got 50% cash, still looking to slooowly buying back in. This bear market will last a while. I am in no hurry.

ladelfina 07-25-2008 07:36 AM

Those market price charts seem weird to me because they don't count dividends. Dividends used to be a lot higher generally, which makes stocks on those graphs more expensive now than they might appear just based on price.

cute fuzzy bunny 07-25-2008 07:47 AM

That and I was drawing lines on the nasdaq and not the s&p500.

Theres also that thing about companies buying back shares instead of paying the money out in dividends.

NW-Bound 07-25-2008 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ladelfina (Post 688851)
Those market price charts seem weird to me because they don't count dividends. Dividends used to be a lot higher generally, which makes stocks on those graphs more expensive now than they might appear just based on price.

Use www.investor.msn.com. There, you have a choice of looking at price charts, or much better yet, investment growth assuming you reinvest dividends for either stocks or funds. However, be aware that within the last 2 years, their database started to have errors and omissions. On an investment growth chart, when you see a huge drop of > 3 to 4% a day, particularly near year ends for MF, you can bet their database miss a dividend payout. I know because they miss dividend payouts for some of my MFs.

Other than the MF management sites, is there another site that shows dividend effects?

ESRBob 07-26-2008 10:07 PM

Did I stumble onto a forum of day traders? Better check my cookies.

HFWR 07-27-2008 08:00 AM

Hormones, ESRBob...

That's why I rebalance myself, rather than letting Vanguard's computers do it. :rolleyes:

ziggy29 07-27-2008 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ESRBob (Post 689620)
Did I stumble onto a forum of day traders? Better check my cookies.

Markets dominated by greed and fear (like this one) tend to make a lot of people question their long-term approaches at exactly the wrong time.

DblDoc 07-27-2008 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by statsman (Post 688586)
Hey, we finally lump-summed most of our taxable into Vanguard on Monday. Two decent days blown away by one really bad day, even with a 40/60 portfolio. I don't think there is a safe way to invest these days. I suppose we could have kept the funds in our money market earning 3+%, but I doubt it would stand the test of time for an early retirement.

Damned if we do, damned if we don't. :mad:

Was it safer when the market was going up?

Its all about risk and reward. Without the former you get none of the latter. As Keynes pointed out it is the duty of investors to, at times, lose money. If we didn't we would all be sitting in MMF's and CD's groaning each month at the latest (cooked) CPI numbers :coolsmiley:

DD

rkser 07-27-2008 04:51 PM

Yes, Staying the Course 100%
 
I am 52 & want to retire at 60, Stocks 55%, Bonds 42%, & Cash 3%.

The idea is to slowly move towards 50% stocks by retirement, and am presently dollar cost averaging in Bond Index Funds.

I wish my portfolio needed Stocks, as A Mother of all sales is going on now. I hope this kind of Market Madness settles down in next 8yrs.

Nice thread

kumquat 07-27-2008 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Purron (Post 688538)
Hey, wait a minute, the Germans didn't bomb Pearl Harbor. Oh, forget about it, he's on a roll8)

Did you forget the 't' in 't'roll?

cute fuzzy bunny 07-28-2008 07:48 AM

I think he also forgot the 'd' in... douc....ah nevermind.


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