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-   -   1970s all over again? (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/1970s-all-over-again-37300.html)

dmpi 07-19-2008 06:07 PM

1970s all over again?
 
Considering the current inflation and where the stock market is at doesn’t it seem like we are reliving the 70s? If I had to pick a year, I would peg this year as 1975.

^GSPC: Summary for S&P 500 INDEX,RTH - Yahoo! Finance


Not all a bad thing, because 1975 was the year I had my first real girlfriend. :)

cloudeleven 07-19-2008 06:14 PM

The 70s again, except without all the great music (and I'm only 27).

audreyh1 07-19-2008 06:56 PM

Nope. No wage pricing power. People just get squeezed this time - no wage inflation spiral.

Oh - I did download Dark Side of the Moon from iTunes recently. It still sounds great!

Audrey

rs0460a 07-19-2008 07:00 PM

Time to get out my "big" collar pink shirts, along with the wide ties.

Oops! I'm retired. Don't need to "dress up", nevermore :rolleyes: ...

- Ron

Independent 07-19-2008 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 686359)
Nope. No wage pricing power. People just get squeezed this time - no wage inflation spiral.

Oh - I did download Dark Side of the Moon from iTunes recently. It still sounds great!

Audrey

Yep.

I also hope that the Fed learned from the mistakes of the 70's.

OTOH, we had better fundamentals in those days. We didn't have the debt we have today, and we didn't have the competition for natural resources. When the US finally got its act together and dropped its oil usage by about 15%, the world price of oil collapsed. I'm not so sure that would happen again.

Notmuchlonger 07-19-2008 07:12 PM

Im ready.

YouTube - Do A little dance-kc and the sunshine band O0

dmpi 07-19-2008 07:28 PM

I also forgot to mention that President Bush was a lot like Nixon and the Iraq war was similar to the Vietnam War.

You’re correct about no wage inflation. Back then the unions were stronger and they could negotiate better increases. And there was no foreign competition for our jobs.

The biggest thing about the 70s that I miss was women use to go around braless. Now they wear a bra so sturdy they look like they are expecting an assassination attempt! :)

Notmuchlonger 07-19-2008 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmpi (Post 686370)
I also forgot to mention that President Bush was a lot like Nixon and the Iraq war was similar to the Vietnam War.

You’re correct about no wage inflation. Back then the unions were stronger and they could negotiate better increases. And there was no foreign competition for our jobs.

The biggest thing about the 70s that I miss was women use to go around braless. Now they wear a bra so sturdy they look like they are expecting an assassination attempt! :)

Kick back. Relax.. spark one up you dig.

YouTube - EVERYBODY WAS KUNG FU FIGHTING

cute fuzzy bunny 07-19-2008 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmpi (Post 686370)
The biggest thing about the 70s that I miss was women use to go around braless. Now they wear a bra so sturdy they look like they are expecting an assassination attempt!

You oughta move to Sacramento or Phoenix. Its so hot here the women walk around wearing a pair of sheer hankies.

Bush isnt like Nixon. You need the flappy jowls to pull that off.

Nords 07-19-2008 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmpi (Post 686342)
Considering the current inflation and where the stock market is at doesn’t it seem like we are reliving the 70s? If I had to pick a year, I would peg this year as 1975.

You might want to do a reality check against the unemployment rate, price/wage controls, tariffs, and stock-trading commissions-- to say nothing of what bonds are paying.

Speaking of hankies, the eye candy at Queen's was so impressive yesterday that I let my multifocal contacts get washed away by the surf to be able to put my distance vision to better use...

d 07-20-2008 10:41 AM

this doesn't seem like the 70's to me ... you can point to some similarities, but you can do that for lots of time periods.

RockOn 07-20-2008 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Independent (Post 686364)
OTOH, we had better fundamentals in those days. We didn't have the debt we have today, and we didn't have the competition for natural resources. When the US finally got its act together and dropped its oil usage by about 15%, the world price of oil collapsed. I'm not so sure that would happen again.

Also in those days when inflation started rising the government calculated it in a manner that showed it really was a problem so it was eventually dealt with, even though with some pain. Today we calculate it a manner that allows us to ignore the reality that people are getting hurt by it. The result will be........

Ed_The_Gypsy 07-20-2008 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 686359)
Nope. No wage pricing power. People just get squeezed this time - no wage inflation spiral.

Not entirely true. Houston is going great guns.

A few of us are working (2B and me, for example) in the oil patch and are doing very well. Wage-inflation spiral going strong in Alberta. My kids, on the other hand, are not doing well.

teejayevans 07-20-2008 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d (Post 686579)
this doesn't seem like the 70's to me ... you can point to some similarities, but you can do that for lots of time periods.

Probably because we don't have double digit inflation or bonds to
match, just more whining.
TJ

aenlighten 07-20-2008 12:07 PM

A paler reflection
 
Inflation is no where as bad as then since wages aren't increasing, but we don't measure inflation the same way we did back then and it isn't inflation that is that bad anyway but the diminution of real earnings. Comparing changes in energy prices though, we have already spanned the equivalent of the 70s. While we may have a recessionary respite in energy prices which may even last a while afterwards, I doubt it will last as long as the last time.

d 07-20-2008 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teejayevans (Post 686614)
... just more whining.

definitely more whining!

2B 07-20-2008 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy (Post 686588)
Not entirely true. Houston is going great guns.

A few of us are working (2B and me, for example) in the oil patch and are doing very well. Wage-inflation spiral going strong in Alberta. My kids, on the other hand, are not doing well.

I've been getting 5% raises every six months. In the 70's I was getting 10% raises every six months.

Inflation and interest rates are still very low in comparison. Both are also low by historical standards. The big problem has been a housing bubble in small sections of the country fueled by stupid lenders and stupid buyers. Even so, people that bought their homes 3 to 5 years ago almost all are still making money. The losers are the stupid banks and the people that got caught up in the frenzy of housing going to the sky. This was within 5 years of the tech bubble collapse. You would think people would know better.

I agree that people are mostly whinning. No telling what will happen when we really get a solid recession with 10+% unemployment. Combine that with 10+% inflation and you've got the mid to late 1970s.

There are some people that are facing real problems through no fault of their own. Medical issues are the usual causes. That's really no different this year as any other. I can't believe that congress is getting ready to bail out every house flipper with my money.

huskerblue 07-20-2008 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 686359)
Nope. No wage pricing power. People just get squeezed this time - no wage inflation spiral.

Oh - I did download Dark Side of the Moon from iTunes recently. It still sounds great!

Audrey


Still perhaps the greatest album ever!! I saw Roger Waters last summer and David Gilmore's version of Pink Floyd a few years back. ahhhhhh! O0

Delawaredave5 07-20-2008 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 686359)
Nope. No wage pricing power. People just get squeezed this time - no wage inflation spiral.

I agree with this (and hope it is true). Only think I wonder about is as the baby boomers retire - there could a real shrinkage on the labor pool - which could create wage pricing power.

However the baby boomers maybe won't be retiring with their financial condition.

Moemg 07-20-2008 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmpi (Post 686370)

The biggest thing about the 70s that I miss was women use to go around braless. Now they wear a bra so sturdy they look like they are expecting an assassination attempt! :)


That's because all those women ended up having breast lifts and they learned their lesson .


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