Anyone here subscribe to Value Line?

[Orchidflower]

The subscription is something over $500 a year. I've never heard of anyone on this board mention subscribing, but...wondered if anyone did. And is it worth that high cost?

 

[kaneohe]

Used to be you could find that in libraries. Don't know if they do that any more.
At one time they used to run funds based on the same methodology. I don't think they were ever considered really great funds which is one indicator.

 

[2B]

I don't subscribe now and never did. I used to use it extensively for my initial research into companies. I used the library copy. That was back in my individual stock days about 10 years ago.

I eventually proved to myself I wasn't beating the returns of a broadly diversified portfolio of index funds. I swallowed my pride and had to admit I wasn't a better stock picker than 80+% of the "pros" who also can't beat the index over any time period and the ~20% that do once in a while seldom do it for long.

BTW - there used to be a mutual fund that picked the top Value Line recommendations. The last I saw it was seriously underperforming the indexes.

So, I have to ask. Why do you want to waste your time and/or money on Value Line?

 

[Sarah in SC]

We used to get it at work, not any longer.

 

[Running_Man]

I do and I think it is well worth the value, when you look for a deal a subscription can be had for $299 per year. A 13 week trial is $75 which gets you the complete set and one update for every stock over the next 3 months. You can have all the Dow stocks for free here
Value Line - Free Dow 30

Value Line adjusts and provides numerical rankings far beyond the 1-5 ratings of the stock. They do not have to be concerned that they are a rating agency and they adjust and reduce Financial Strength and safety ratings (as an example they reduced the safety of Citibank in November of 2007 when the stock was trading in the 30's). I have found purchasing stocks that are rated a 1 or 2 in timeliness while also a 1 or 2 in safety, with financial strength of B+, and ratings on Price Stability, Growth and Earnings predictability all with a rating over 75 with dividends increased every year for 10+ years to be a very good starting point for individual stock investments.

As an example of what the performance of their ratings system itself, on 3/21/08 Walmart was raised to a "1" in timeliness and since that point has stayed a "1" and far outperformed the market averages by falling only 2 percent since then before dividends. On 8/1/08 American Express was dropped to a "5" their lowest rating and since then has dropped over 35 percent.

 

[Orchidflower]

Thank you for your empirical knowledge about Value Line, Running Man. I read their ad, and have some interest, so thought I would ask around here.
Interesting split opinions on this board over Value Line, tho.

 

[MichaelB]

Value Line is a stock selection service that has been proven to have higher returns than just about every other newsletter or stock picking service - and most broad based US mutual funds - in theory.

In other words, their weekly stock recommendations have outperformed every other investment service, but nobody can make it work in practice - not even Value Line themselves. It's something about the timing and the transaction cost.

If you choose to invest in individual stocks and have a large portfolio, their data base and filtering tools are first class and easily worth the cost. You can get 50% off if you have a fidelity account.

I subscribed for a couple of years back in the day. I picked up a trial subscription a couple of months ago, but don't think I'm going to renew. Serious investing in stocks requires significant time, and I'm quite sure that's not how I wish to spend mine.

Michael

 

[Orchidflower]

Thanks for that info about a discount if you are with Fidelity. I didn't know that one...cool, MichaelB.

 

[terminator]

I've used it since I was a little boy. First borrowed weekly from my dad's office, then the library and now on a discounted subscription as a Christmas gift.

It's a great resource. You can find everything that's in it for free somewhere else (e.g. S&P reports from some online brokers, Yahoo Finance, etc.) but ValueLine does a great job of putting more information on a single page which is a huge advantage. They also go further back (17 years) with their page data and they do a better job of tailoring the presented data to the particular industry.

Their written commentary at the bottom of the page is so-so. Interesting but not particularly great. Also, you'll find that they are optimistic and present the "if everything goes right" scenario in their projections. Once you realize that it's fine -- you just need to weight the risk and relative rewards for yourself. I pay attention to the safety ratings, but really don't look at the timeliness/technical ones. It's not the end and be-all of stock research, but I've never seen anything better. For me, I could comfortably make almost all of my stock investments decisions with ValueLine and SEC filings.

 

[Bimmerbill]

The professor in my investment and finance class loved it. We had many class assignments on how to use it and it was on a lot of tests. He told us to go to our local library and use theirs since it was so expensive!

 

[Nords]

The perpetual conflict over a service like ValueLine is why they bother to sell their analysis when they could just [-]eat their own cooking[/-] invest and grow rich on millions without having to waste their time picking up subscription pennies.

You would also think that the mutual funds based on ValueLine analysis would outperform some appropriate index.

If you insist on using newsletters, I'd suggest evaluating ValueLine against the rest of the crowd by reviewing Hulbert's Financial Digest. Hulbert's not free, but he's a lot cheaper than ValueLine and much more objective.

MarketWatch.com

 

[clifp]

What are people's opinions of Hulbert's newsletter? Mark Hulbert is on TV a lot and seems pretty smart. Are there any investment ideas from his newsletter or is he strictly a rating agency for newsletters?

(one hopes a better rating company than S&P, Moodys, and Fitch).

 

[Running_Man]

The perpetual conflict over a service like ValueLine is why they bother to sell their analysis when they could just [-]eat their own cooking[/-] invest and grow rich on millions without having to waste their time picking up subscription pennies.

You would also think that the mutual funds based on ValueLine analysis would outperform some appropriate index.

If you insist on using newsletters, I'd suggest evaluating ValueLine against the rest of the crowd by reviewing Hulbert's Financial Digest. Hulbert's not free, but he's a lot cheaper than ValueLine and much more objective.

MarketWatch.com

This is the main mutual fund based on Value Line using the selection and timeliness criteria:
Value Line Mutual Funds

It has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Total US Stock Market as of 9/30/08.

Value Line MF: 1 yr -14.3 3 yr +2.38 5yr +7.40 10 yr 6.48
Vangaurd TSM 1yr -21.0 3 yr +0.48 5yr +5.88 10 yr 3.94

But I do not think of Value line as a newsletter as much as it is a research tool with defined metrics that can be traced over time. When you buy a stock much of the metrics are based on all other stocks in the index so you can easily tell if your stock is getting relatively stronger or weaker in areas you might not otherwise think of such as Earnings Predictibility, which should directly effect the beta of the stock. The value is in using the index to identify stocks for screening, not to buy all of the stocks rated #1. That is just one small tool of the entire service

 

[AzDreamer]

Before spending $$$ for a subscription you should see of your library has it for free. Our library does, I was just looking at their stuff this morning.

 

[Orchidflower]

I read all Hulbert's articles I can. EZ to read and understand, and he doesn't seem to try and baffle me with his b.s. (as the old sales saying goes). I like that guy myself.

 

[redduck]

I've subscribed, off and on, to Value Line for a whole bunch of years. I never paid more than $299. But, then, again, I never paid less than that, either. They give you a whole bunch of info (Running Man discussed this in some detail). I pick and choose which stocks I want to follow and I have my own favorite statistics to look at (e.g. safety and financial strength). I like that it comes in print because I enjoy sitting in backyard reading while wearing a bathrobe and drinking coffee. I tried doing that once in the library and I was asked to leave (at least, I think that's why I was asked to leave). Anyhow, I don't like reading Value Line at the library, because there's usually some old guy living below his means taking this time reading it before I can get to it.

And, it is also available via the internet--it appears Monday morning at 6:00 AM. The paper form usually arrives a few days later--like Wed. or Thurs. For me, it's worth the money.

 

[redduck]

Ah, let's make that Monday morning: 8:00 AM Eastern Time. The good news is, you get the bad news two hours later than I originally stated.

 

[galaxia525]

So, which financial newsletter does Mark Hulbert recommend now?

 

[haha]

Anyhow, I don't like reading Value Line at the library, because there's usually some old guy living below his means taking this time reading it before I can get to it.

Not only that, there is usually some guy without even the means to take a bath asleep on the table next to wherever you are sitting.

Ha

 

[redduck]

Not only that, there is usually some guy without even the means to take a bath asleep on the table next to wherever you are sitting.

Ha

Yeah, I know that guy. He always chased the hot funds and high yields, but was never really diversified and screwed up on his asset allocation. Weird thing is, no matter how bad things are, it seems he does take the time to floss. He says he just got a tip on-line re: dental floss and he now believes Longs Dental floss is the only way to go.

please reference the health forum for clarification re: dental floss