Why it Might be Different This Time

[TromboneAl]

Paul Farrell article.

Yes, population is the core problem that, unless confronted and dealt with, will render all solutions to all other problems irrelevant. Population is the one variable in an economic equation that impacts, aggravates, irritates and accelerates all other problems.

 

[Khan]

6.5 billion people + peak oil = bad stuff.

 

[Grep]

Paul Farrell article.

Yes, population is the core problem that, unless confronted and dealt with, will render all solutions to all other problems irrelevant. Population is the one variable in an economic equation that impacts, aggravates, irritates and accelerates all other problems.

Yet another doom and gloom, "end of the world as we know it" article.

Far be it for someone as bitter as I am to get all Pollyanna about things, but look at the bright side:

1) Requiring or "encouraging" suicide at 70 will moot so many of our "but will my money last?" worries, even given the recent downturn. FIRE is now ours! Three cheers!

2) A complementary and much more entertaining means of solving the problem is [-]at hand[/-] right in front of us. We, like Japan and a wide range of other maturing countries, are suffering from a lack of younger folk to take up the yoke. Therefore, we will now be required to procreate like bunnies!

 

[REWahoo]

Paul Farrell is the King of Gloom and Doom. I've said it before but I'm convinced he has significant investments in the black paint industry.

In case you doubt me, here's a sample of his last few articles:


Paul B. Farrell: Bad bank for toxic debt is one more Wall Street 'Lost' cause

Paul B. Farrell: Five reasons the population boom is the biggest economic crisis

Paul B. Farrell: Take this test to see how you'll survive the next big meltdown

Paul B. Farrell: Don't be conned into thinking there will be a recovery in '09

Paul B. Farrell: 15 reminders that Wall Street's con game goes on 10 years later

Paul B. Farrell: You'll need this 'Noah's Ark' survival kit to stay afloat in 2009

Paul B. Farrell: 15 economic tales that will haunt you this Christmas and beyond

 

[dex]

Amazon.com: Planet of Slums: Mike Davis: Books

Urban theorist Davis takes a global approach to documenting the astonishing depth of squalid poverty that dominates the lives of the planet's increasingly urban population, detailing poor urban communities from Cape Town and Caracas to Casablanca and Khartoum. Davis argues health, justice and social issues associated with gargantuan slums (the largest, in Mexico City, has an estimated population of 4 million) get overlooked in world politics: "The demonizing rhetorics of the various international 'wars' on terrorism, drugs, and crime are so much semantic apartheid: they construct epistemological walls around gecekondus, favelas, and chawls that disable any honest debate about the daily violence of economic exclusion." Though Davis focuses on individual communities, he presents statistics showing the skyrocketing population and number of "megaslums" (informally, "stinking mountains of ****" or, formally, "when shanty-towns and squatter communities merge in continuous belts of informal housing and poverty, usually on the urban periphery") since the 1960s. Layered over the hard numbers are a fascinating grid of specific area studies and sub-topics ranging from how the Olympics has spurred the forceful relocation of thousands (and, sometimes, hundreds of thousands) of the urban poor, to the conversion of formerly second world countries to third world status. Davis paints a bleak picture of the upward trend in urbanization and maintains a stark outlook for slum-dwellers' futures.
++++++
Al's right with this one.
I think I and those older than me will do OK.

The biggest bubble is population growing from 1B in 1910 to 10 B in 2050.
USA is estimated to be 400m in 2050. That's why I'm not worried about the real estate market.

 

[haha]

Amazon.com: Planet of Slums: Mike Davis: Books

The biggest bubble is population growing from 1B in 1910 to 10 B in 2050.

Not going to happen. Starvation or disease will intervene first.

Ha

 

[Martha]

I did my part for ZPG.

 

[Nords]

Yes, population is the core problem that, unless confronted and dealt with, will render all solutions to all other problems irrelevant. Population is the one variable in an economic equation that impacts, aggravates, irritates and accelerates all other problems.

Cognitive dissonance: People are sure that the stock markets will never rise again but apparently have no problem believing that world population will hit 10B.

 

[W2R]

I did my part for ZPG.

Me, too. My two brothers and I had a total of two boys and a girl, thus simultaneously carrying on the family line and meeting ZPG.

My parents' generation was where the population explosion in my family occurred. Eight kids had a total of 26 children during the baby boom years.

 

[dex]

U.S. and World Population Clocks - POPClocks


http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/WPP2006_Highlights_rev.pdf
According to the 2006 Revision, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion
over the next 43 years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is
equivalent to the overall number of people in the world in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by
the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9
billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain
largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net
migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million
persons a year after 2010.

 

[Martha]

U.S. and World Population Clocks - POPClocks


http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/WPP2006_Highlights_rev.pdf
According to the 2006 Revision, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion
over the next 43 years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is
equivalent to the overall number of people in the world in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by
the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9
billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain
largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net
migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million
persons a year after 2010.

Fertility rates go down when a population is less hungry and less poor. Just like gardening, stressed plants produce more seed.

 

[bbbamI]

I have no children. So if anyone out there wants to pick up my slack and get pregnant...go for it....

 

[W2R]

I have no children. So if anyone out there wants to pick up my slack and get pregnant...go for it....

Gee, thanks, but, er.... no thanks!

 

[MichaelB]

Try as hard as we can, after all the bankruptcies, foreclosures, layoffs, TARPs and everything else, the US will still be the most prosperous country in the world, our currency will be the standard for world trade, our universities will provide the best education and the best and brightest from ‘round the world will want to come here to learn, work, compete freely, live – and contribute to our growing population.

The veil of gloom affects short distance viewing. People need to learn to look beyond that. When this current crisis is behind us I see a much healthier and more competitive US, and am much more optimistic for the future of my children.

Michael

 

[Brat]

Biologically, humanity is overdue for an epidemic. Those impacted the greatest will be in the world's slums and just like the Black Plague the well to do will not be spared. I don't think medical science can react fast enough to prevent the contagion once it is under way. It might be the Bird Flu, and if it is the current form of the virus will reduce the World's population by at least 50% (my opinion).

Consider the impact of European diseases like Small Pox on the American Native peoples. They lost 80% of their communities by many accounts.

I think the future for the US & Canada are better than the rest of the world and we are better equipped to deal with humanities mess-ups.

 

[youbet]

The veil of gloom affects short distance viewing. People need to learn to look beyond that. When this current crisis is behind us I see a much healthier and more competitive US, and am much more optimistic for the future of my children.

I keep trying to go with the optimistic view of our collective future vs. population growth. It seems like technology and a population educated about the need for ZPG should be able to bring us to some sort of reasonable stability. Yet there is nothing in history to indicate that will happen as opposed to population control via war, famine or disease.

I live in suburban Chicago. During the recent doubling of the population of the five county metropolitan area, I watched urban sprawl grow from the Chicago city limits to 40 - 50 miles from the borders in all directions (except where limited by Lake Michigan.) The farmland my dad and I used to hunt pheasants and rabbits on just 30 mins west of our home on the northwest side is now office towers, strip malls and dense housing.

I think we're coping with the growth reasonably well. It's just hard to imagine what things will be like with 2 or 3 more doublings of the population....... Chicagoans will have to travel 100+ miles to see a vacant lot. I won't have to worry about it but I hope the kids and grandkids develop the ability to find peace and solitude while dwelling shoulder to shoulder with the masses.

 

[mark500]

Remember Dow 30,000? and New Economy, it's different this time? Opposite hyperbole.

 

[Dawg52]

Paul Farrell is the King of Gloom and Doom. I've said it before but I'm convinced he has significant investments in the black paint industry.

In case you doubt me, here's a sample of his last few articles:


Paul B. Farrell: Bad bank for toxic debt is one more Wall Street 'Lost' cause

Paul B. Farrell: Five reasons the population boom is the biggest economic crisis

Paul B. Farrell: Take this test to see how you'll survive the next big meltdown

Paul B. Farrell: Don't be conned into thinking there will be a recovery in '09

Paul B. Farrell: 15 reminders that Wall Street's con game goes on 10 years later

Paul B. Farrell: You'll need this 'Noah's Ark' survival kit to stay afloat in 2009

Paul B. Farrell: 15 economic tales that will haunt you this Christmas and beyond

Yes, I don't go CBS MarketWatch anymore because of him. Don't watch CNBC anymore either.

 

[dex]

Biologically, humanity is overdue for an epidemic. Those impacted the greatest will be in the world's slums and just like the Black Plague the well to do will not be spared. I don't think medical science can react fast enough to prevent the contagion once it is under way. It might be the Bird Flu, and if it is the current form of the virus will reduce the World's population by at least 50% (my opinion).

Consider the impact of European diseases like Small Pox on the American Native peoples. They lost 80% of their communities by many accounts.

I think the future for the US & Canada are better than the rest of the world and we are better equipped to deal with humanities mess-ups.

I'm guessing the disease would need to be a some type of new disease. The Spanish Flu killed about 60million or about 6% of the world population. WWII killed about 60million world wide 3%(?). 6% of today's population would be about 420M a speed bump in population growth.

A 50% death rate would put us into the dark ages.

The Black Death, 1348

 

[ziggy29]

I'm guessing the disease would need to be a some type of new disease. The Spanish Flu killed about 60million or about 6% of the world population. WWII killed about 60million world wide 3%(?). 6% of today's population would be about 420M a speed bump in population growth.

Could be. I don't think it would be like the plague, though, which was bacterial. Anything that comes along and wipes out a large percentage of the world population will likely be viral in the age of antibiotics.

 

[yakers]

It can be something new and untreatable like AIDS or it could be common and simple and just spread faster than it can be contained. In these cases having better medicine might help those with resources.

 

[samclem]

Could be. I don't think it would be like the plague, though, which was bacterial. Anything that comes along and wipes out a large percentage of the world population will likely be viral in the age of antibiotics.

Probably viral, not requiring an insect vector, present in a difficult to treat/eradicate animal population (reservoir of disease), easily communicable, high mortality after a fairly lengthy communicable period. Bird flu meets all these factors except the easy communicability criteria, and there's every reason to believe it will acquire this trait with enough time.

 

[ejman]

Well, if the natural resources of the earth + ingeniuty of its inhabitants can support 10 billion people - problem solved!

If it can't - problem also solved. Mr Darwin's theories will be amply demonstrated. If creationists have something on this that will be demonstrated too...

 

[Nords]

Biologically, humanity is overdue for an epidemic. Those impacted the greatest will be in the world's slums and just like the Black Plague the well to do will not be spared. I don't think medical science can react fast enough to prevent the contagion once it is under way. It might be the Bird Flu, and if it is the current form of the virus will reduce the World's population by at least 50% (my opinion).

Probably viral, not requiring an insect vector, present in a difficult to treat/eradicate animal population (reservoir of disease), easily communicable, high mortality after a fairly lengthy communicable period. Bird flu meets all these factors except the easy communicability criteria, and there's every reason to believe it will acquire this trait with enough time.

Spouse spent most of a year in one of her Reserve billets going to FEMA, state Civil Defense, & military conferences on dealing with pandemic influenza.

Technically H5N1 has already acquired the ability to go from birds to humans, and it's just a matter of time for human-->human transmission.

The book "The Great Influenza" describes many instances where civil & military authorities kept bringing people together. WWI troop movements, city parades and public events, and other quarantine failures allowed plenty of opportunity for the virus to spread.

That lesson has supposedly been learned. Under current emergency planning, the first H5N1 outbreak on American soil will bring national movement pretty much to a halt for two-three weeks while people hunker home with hand sanitizers and facemasks. (The Dow would easily reach 5000-- but the stock markets would be closed.) Hospitals & EMTs would try to treat as many symptoms as they could but unless an effective antiviral vaccine is discovered then 20-somethings are going to have to hope that their immune systems don't get exposed.

As for other epidemics-- look what AIDS is doing to African societies.

 

[Brat]

SamClem and I are of the same mind.

I am in no way a biologist but from what I have read mortality decreases or is delayed once a disease becomes easily communicable. AIDS, for example, has a delayed onset probably as a defense mechanism of the virus.... if humans died quickly it would be less communicable.