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haha 03-27-2009 04:14 AM

Deflation Is So Yesterday
 
FT.com / Short View

mbooth 03-27-2009 07:31 AM

Having been avidly following the roller-coaster ride of world financial gyrations (and by default my retirement savings) for the last 18 months or so, I can honestly say that, in comparision to the umpty-hundred articles and op-ed pieces I have read over that time, this would have to be the singularly most dry, boring, uninformative and 'graph'-ically irrelevant thing I have seen in a coon's age ;)

Not having a crack at you ha, but really, what is this bloke actually saying......let alone that might give me hope the pundits have a clue about what's happening and where it's all going? This really is a talking-head in overdrive (but with a dull monotone drone).

Give me drama, give me pathos, give me tears, give me passion........but ffs don't give me a pointer to another presentation by this dude! :laugh:

haha 03-27-2009 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbooth (Post 800687)
Having been avidly following the roller-coaster ride of world financial gyrations (and by default my retirement savings) for the last 18 months or so, I can honestly say that, in comparision to the umpty-hundred articles and op-ed pieces I have read over that time, this would have to be the singularly most dry, boring, uninformative and 'graph'-ically irrelevant thing I have seen in a coon's age ;)

Not having a crack at you ha, but really, what is this bloke actually saying......let alone that might give me hope the pundits have a clue about what's happening and where it's all going? This really is a talking-head in overdrive (but with a dull monotone drone).

Give me drama, give me pathos, give me tears, give me passion........but ffs don't give me a pointer to another presentation by this dude! :laugh:

Well, he seems to be saying something to me, but I get his RSS and like him. Horses for courses, as is often said!

Ha

Running_Man 03-27-2009 12:02 PM

Thanks Ha, I think it was a very good video, not seen him before added that to my internet favorties. He is implying that copper is a leading economic indicator and a precursor for future equity pricing.

If you look at his first chart when he is comparing copper, in which he is trying to infer that a recovery in copper will lead to a recovery in the stock market, copper had a big drop from 160 to 120, 25% decline with no impact on the stock market.

Personally, I use copper as a leading indicator as well, it is very imperfect but a good piece to a larger puzzle. The tips arguement is very weak as there is not enough history to prove it means anything for deflation and deflation is such a long run phenomena by the time you identify it, the market is already down 50%.

That is why I have liked the BDI index, it has been a good indicator of economic activity, and adds another piece to the puzzle for estimating what I think will happen going forward.


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