Obsessed with Numbers from GA

[vlagirl]

Hi, everyone! Lately, my DH's eyes start to glaze over when I have some new budget tidbit to tell him, so I thought for the sake of a healthy marriage I should join a community where everyone likes to talk about their numbers and plans. He's on board with our plans, just not as interested in the details as I am. Our info:

Me: 36, freelance musician, minuscule income but I run the household, finances, etc.
DH: 37, O-4 in the Army with 12 years completed
No children, and we expect to stay that way

Currently, our plan is to retire in 2014, when I'm 51 and DH is 52. At that point, he'll have 26 years in the Army and the pension projects to be right around what he's making right now. Our health care costs will be low because we can stay with Tricare. Right now we're saving for the house we'll buy at retirement. We're currently under water on a condo DH bought in northern VA before we were married. We rent it out but we're hoping to sell it in about 5 years, which projects to be when we'll break even. DH has $29k in his TSP, I have $27k in a Roth IRA and $16k in TSP from when I was in the service, which I'm in the process of converting over to a Roth. We have $33k in our Vanguard brokerage account, which is the future house nest egg. We also have EE bonds that would net us around $11k if we cashed them in today; we're planning to use some of the bond money to renovate the condo before we sell it.

I have run the numbers so many different ways to try to plan for various market returns, but of course that is the great unknown. I love to play with all of my spreadsheets and right now everything is on track. We're planning to put away a minimum of $12k/year towards the house fund for the next 6 years, and then we'll raise it to $24k/year (when DH expects to make O-5 and after the sale of the condo).

Sorry if this went on too long! I'm obsessed with all of this lately and am really enjoying reading all the forums on this site.

 

[two4theroad]

"I have run the numbers so many different ways to try to plan for various market returns, but of course that is the great unknown. I love to play with all of my spreadsheets and right now everything is on track."

Hi there vlagirl,
First congratulations on saving as much as you have so far.
I am no expert at this but this quote jumped out at me. I, too, planned to retire early ( made it and retired at 47 just 3 years ago.)
While there are tons of different ways to run numbers and forecast market returns I found that the fastest and most reliable way to increase the nest egg was to save more money. The fastest way to save more is to earn more money. I would rethink the "stay at home freelance musician" career and branch out to a full time job with a musician minor.....Just think how much larger the final nest egg would be if the annual savings were increased from $24,000 to 64,000!! Since you are making it on his salary alone now you could bank all of yours.
Good luck!!
2fer

 

[flpanhandle]

Me: 36, freelance musician, minuscule income but I run the household, finances, etc.
DH: 37, O-4 in the Army with 12 years completed
No children, and we expect to stay that way

Currently, our plan is to retire in 2014, when I'm 51 and DH is 52.

What am I missing? Retire 15 years from now in 2014? May be time to take a little break from the numbers?

 

[ziggy29]

What am I missing? Retire 15 years from now in 2014? May be time to take a little break from the numbers?

I'm pretty sure she meant to say 2024. As REW says, "numbers is hard..."

 

[vlagirl]

Yes, thank you ziggy! I did indeed mean 2024, and flpanhandle, I'm sure I do need a break from the numbers!

two4theroad - you're right, of course, we could boost our numbers much faster if I had a job that paid more. I had a very lucrative job that I gave up in order to be with my DH and I'm still trying to decide exactly what I want to be doing. Currently, my freelancing brings in around $12k/year, but because of the irregular nature of my income, we do live entirely off DH's salary and mine goes towards retirement and vacations. It's hard to build up new work every 3 years or so, when we are forced to move by the Army. This hasn't been a good location to get private students, but our next place will, so I plan to start teaching privately again in the fall. Frankly, I'm not much qualified for anything but music - 3 degrees in viola performance and no work my entire life that hasn't been making music or teaching it. But there are definitely ways I can increase what I'm doing in the music field - it's just a matter of opposite schedules. Our highest value is our relationship, yes even above ER!, so I don't want to spend all my nights and weekends working when those are the times I see my DH. We're newlyweds, though, maybe that will change over time!

 

[two4theroad]

Yeah that newlywed stuff, mine never wore off. We still like to be together 24 hours a day after 20 years. So don't hold your breath on that one.
I'm still trying to decide exactly what I want to be doing.
I'm not much qualified for anything but music
I am all for togetherness and being happy in your work, but not to the detriment of ER. So you can't freelance your music more because it would be nights and weekends and would interfere with DH time off. So think out of the box. Get away from the music and find other things to do in the daytime while he is at work. Not knowing your skill set and abilities I can't come up with anything else off the top of my head. You say you take care of finances and household, how about keeping books. It's not for everyone but freelance housekeepers are getting $15 to $20 an hour in Houston.
It all depends on how badly you want to ER and what you are willing to do to get there.
Good luck!
2fer

 

[sheehs1]

I read from another poster on this site something like "plan for the worst". So while running your numbers you might want to consider that. What would happen if something happened to your husband? How would your finances and plans be affected. Just something to think about. You are still quite young and well....stuff happens.
Have you ever considered getting fast tracked for a teaching position to teach music teach music in either an elementary or high school system. Education is taking a hit right now due to the shape the states are in but it will turn around.
If children and high school students are not your thing....lots of churches pay for music directors or pianists...etc. Don't know what instruments you play. Just some thoughts.

 

[clifp]

Me: 36, freelance musician, minuscule income but I run the household, finances, etc.

I love to play with all of my spreadsheets and right now everything is on track. We're planning to put away a minimum of $12k/year towards the house fund for the next 6 years, and then we'll raise it to $24k/year (when DH expects to make O-5 and after the sale of the condo).

Sorry if this went on too long! I'm obsessed with all of this lately and am really enjoying reading all the forums on this site.

Welcome to the boards.

I know that in theory music and math skills are highly correlated. But everybody I've known with musical talent, the thought of using a spreadsheet invoked fear and loathing not love. My idea of musical talent is critiquing American Idol contestants. Have you thought of doing something utilizing your math skills? It generally pays better.

It seems to me you are in fine shape for a regular retirement, not necessarily for early retirement based on your assets. AFAIK 26 years * 2.5%/year = 65% of your base pay. My question is how much of the housing allowance, reenlistment bonuses, etc are you actually spending versus saving? In other words can you live on 65% of his base pay?

 

[Gumby]

It's hard to build up new work every 3 years or so, when we are forced to move by the Army.

When the young wife was following me around the country with the USN, she got substitute teaching gigs at the public schools. You only need a college degree -- it doesn't matter what one.

 

[vlagirl]

It seems to me you are in fine shape for a regular retirement, not necessarily for early retirement based on your assets. AFAIK 26 years * 2.5%/year = 65% of your base pay. My question is how much of the housing allowance, reenlistment bonuses, etc are you actually spending versus saving? In other words can you live on 65% of his base pay?

We can't live on 65% of his current base pay. But if we didn't have the condo-associated costs, TSP contributions, and my Roth contribution, we'd be pretty darn close. We can very easily live on 65% of what his base pay will be at retirement, even with figuring very conservative pay raises each year. All my numbers of retirement income are based on low expectations (e.g., there's a good chance DH will make it to O-6, but I'm just planning on O-5 at retirement when I run the numbers), and all my numbers of retirement expenses are grossly inflated.

My parents retired recently, so I've been going over figures with my father (also a musician who is good with numbers and enjoys them), asking about unexpected retirement expenses and multiple scenarios. If DH and I can't live on less than $80,000 a year, even 14 years from now, I'd be ashamed of ourselves. We will definitely try living on our retirement budget for at least two years before actual retirement, so we'll have a good idea at that point - better than now when there are so many unknowns - and we simply won't ER at that point if it's not working.

Gumby, that's a good suggestion regarding student teaching. I'll look into that.

Thanks to all of you for your input! I'm really enjoying the forums here.

 

[stoutboy]

Why is his tsp so low? What is his annual contribution? You should really be trying to max it out at 16500. I know the military doesn't match, but an O-4 makes a quite decent salary, and the military pension is probably the best there is.

 

[Nords]

Hi, everyone! Lately, my DH's eyes start to glaze over when I have some new budget tidbit to tell him, so I thought for the sake of a healthy marriage I should join a community where everyone likes to talk about their numbers and plans. He's on board with our plans, just not as interested in the details as I am...

Welcome to the board, Vlagirl. Wait'll the assignment officer tells your newly O-5'd spouse that the only duty available to him involves living in the Pentagon and finding financing for Army projects...

DH has $29k in his TSP, I have $27k in a Roth IRA....

If you're not already doing so then you should consider continuing to max out the TSP and both your IRAs, and keep an eye on the military's eventual implementation of the Roth 401(k).

Remember that big O-4 pay jump? O-5 is at least as impressive. You'll greatly accelerate your ER plans if you can save the whole pay raise (base pay as well as allowances) and continue to live an O-4 lifestyle.

... and $16k in TSP from when I was in the service, which I'm in the process of converting over to a Roth.

Any reason to rush into that? The TSP has the world's lowest expense ratios, lower even than Vanguard, and you can easily incorporate its various investments into your asset allocation. For example there's no financial-industry equivalent of the "G" fund (http://www.tsp.gov/rates/fundsheet-gfund.pdf) , and it might make a great parking place for a house down payment. I'm pretty sure there's no other fund offering an expense ratio of 0.028% (just 2.8 basis points), either.

Spouse left active duty nearly nine years ago and retired from the Reserves two years ago, but we're leaving her TSP contributions there until at least 2022 (when she starts her Reserve pension) and perhaps longer.

We also have EE bonds that would net us around $11k if we cashed them in today; we're planning to use some of the bond money to renovate the condo before we sell it.

If you have any remote possibility of "qualified educational expenses" then you could cash in the EE bonds tax-free for that purpose, admittedly with some additional requirements/limits. (Handy if one of you returns to college.) If you think you'll be cashing them in over the next few years for the renovations then it's not worth messing with them. But overall I don't think EE bonds have been a very good asset class compared to I bonds or TIPS or the "G" fund. They were great 17 years ago when there weren't many options for starting our kid's college fund, but they haven't aged well alongside the newer products.

One more thought-- when you do your ER calculations you might want to consider maxing your spouse's survivor benefit plan contributions. Way cheaper than life insurance.

 

[stoutboy]

Nords makes some good points. I think you're making a mistake by rolling out of TDP. And remember that in two years, it will also offer a Roth. Keep your money in TSP, you can't beat the low ER.

 

[vlagirl]

Lots to think about! Thanks for all the good information and suggestions. We're definitely looking forward to the TSP Roth - latest news appears to be that it will be available in 2011, but I'm not holding my breath.

Nords - we definitely will max the SBP; I already have that in the retirement budget!

Regarding the TSP, there's a lot to think about. Thanks for all the input. As far as the bonds, I'm not crazy about them either, and we have stopped the allocation, but DH started a bond allotment when he first joined up and then just forgot all about it. The bonds had been sent to his mother's house all these years - luckily she had them in a safe place - and we now have them, reissued with myself as beneficiary.

We haven't been maxing TSP because our issue is having available funds in our 50s (and we don't want to have to do a 72(t)). Our 60s and onward will not be any problem at all.

Nords - Luckily, my husband has a very unique job in the Army that is only done at a maximum of 7 locations, which gives us a lot more knowledge and control when it comes time to move. When you take into effect seniority and where the other people are who do his job and how long they've been there, there are usually only a couple of options of where he'll be sent next.

 

[stoutboy]

...We haven't been maxing TSP because our issue is having available funds in our 50s (and we don't want to have to do a 72(t)). Our 60s and onward will not be any problem at all...

Of course you know your situation better than any of us, but I would be really wary of assuming that your 60s and onward 'will not be any problem at all'. I know the military offers great pensions (for officers, anyway) but anything can happen. I only see 116K total assets here. Is there an emergency fund? Other bank accounts and cash? Plus, your husband has been in the military for 12 years and only has 29K in his TSP. I would strongly urge you guys to max it out starting now. It appears you're in ok shape, though, and maybe I have too much of an ant mentality.

 

[vlagirl]

Of course you know your situation better than any of us, but I would be really wary of assuming that your 60s and onward 'will not be any problem at all'. I know the military offers great pensions (for officers, anyway) but anything can happen. I only see 116K total assets here. Is there an emergency fund? Other bank accounts and cash? Plus, your husband has been in the military for 12 years and only has 29K in his TSP. I would strongly urge you guys to max it out starting now. It appears you're in ok shape, though, and maybe I have too much of an ant mentality.

Nothing wrong with an ant mentality. I'm an ant who married a grasshopper, but at least he's a grasshopper who is willing to change. As I said earlier, we've been married less than a year, so I really can't do anything about his previous TSP contributions (also, TSP was only offered to military starting in 2001, so in that respect it's just 9 years). We do have an emergency fund, around 20k. I feel confident that we will surpass saving the minimum amounts I'm aiming for each year, but while running numbers I was doing everything on the conservative side. I will definitely look into maxing the TSP as you and others have suggested.

 

[Nords]

As far as the bonds, I'm not crazy about them either, and we have stopped the allocation, but DH started a bond allotment when he first joined up and then just forgot all about it. The bonds had been sent to his mother's house all these years - luckily she had them in a safe place - and we now have them, reissued with myself as beneficiary.

I think that military allotments are the #1 [-]suckers[/-] customers of EE bonds. I guess the good thing is that it reinforces savings discipline and automates it. Worked for us. But these days I'm glad that we're cashing them in.

When you get to the cashing-in point, we learned that it was far easier to convert the paper bonds to electronic over TreasuryDirect.gov and then redeem them. Banks & credit unions actively discourage cashing paper EE bonds.

Regarding the TSP, there's a lot to think about. Thanks for all the input.
We haven't been maxing TSP because our issue is having available funds in our 50s (and we don't want to have to do a 72(t)).

You might pay a fairly high price over the next couple decades for that 6-8 bp/year of flexibility. While you're spreadsheeting your plans, it might be worth estimating how much extra you'll pay for that availability (even with Vanguard's low expense ratios) and then deciding whether it's worth it. I guess you'd have to add in the benefit of tax-free compounding of those expense-ratio savings in the TSP.

We've made the decision to draw down our taxable accounts until spouse's Reserve pension kicks in. That way we can leave our tax-deferred accounts to do their maximum compounding.

In your case until age 59.5, you might be able to cover the gap (between spouse's pension and your ER spending) from your taxable accounts and your Roth IRAs. You'd have both the assets in your taxable accounts as well as your Roth IRA contributions available for withdrawals at any time. As you draw down those accounts, you could adjust the TSP holdings to maintain your overall asset allocation.

If you have at least five year's cushion then you could leave your assets in the TSP until then, roll them to a conventional IRA, and then convert them to a Roth. That'll make the TSP contributions available to you as Roth contributions while maximizing their expense-ratio savings & tax-free compounding.

Another option would be to max the TSP now, and then when your spouse is a few years from ER you could stop TSP contributions to build up a cash stash. That way you'd have spending money available in ER while maximizing TSP compounding.

Nords - Luckily, my husband has a very unique job in the Army that is only done at a maximum of 7 locations, which gives us a lot more knowledge and control when it comes time to move. When you take into effect seniority and where the other people are who do his job and how long they've been there, there are usually only a couple of options of where he'll be sent next.

Heh, sounds a lot like the "assignment options" I had in the submarine force... but maybe that's a good thing in the Army.

An Amy PAO friend made O-5 last year only to realize that he's just about out of options to avoid Pentagon duty. He's even doing four-star staff tours to stay away from DC. He's probably going to retire at 20 just to avoid the inevitable unrefusable offer.

 

[vlagirl]

When you get to the cashing-in point, we learned that it was far easier to convert the paper bonds to electronic over TreasuryDirect.gov and then redeem them. Banks & credit unions actively discourage cashing paper EE bonds.

Great advice, I didn't know we could do that. Thanks!

You might pay a fairly high price over the next couple decades for that 6-8 bp/year of flexibility. While you're spreadsheeting your plans, it might be worth estimating how much extra you'll pay for that availability (even with Vanguard's low expense ratios) and then deciding whether it's worth it. I guess you'd have to add in the benefit of tax-free compounding of those expense-ratio savings in the TSP.

Sounds like some good numbers work for me - I will definitely run some different scenarios.

In your case until age 59.5, you might be able to cover the gap (between spouse's pension and your ER spending) from your taxable accounts and your Roth IRAs. You'd have both the assets in your taxable accounts as well as your Roth IRA contributions available for withdrawals at any time. As you draw down those accounts, you could adjust the TSP holdings to maintain your overall asset allocation.

That's what we're planning to do. Though if there is a gap between pension and spending, we'll do everything we can to eliminate it by cutting back, downsizing, whatever it takes. We'd probably just take the occasional withdrawal to pay for a vacation. If we need those assets for everyday spending, I'm not managing our budget well enough, in my opinion.

Another option would be to max the TSP now, and then when your spouse is a few years from ER you could stop TSP contributions to build up a cash stash. That way you'd have spending money available in ER while maximizing TSP compounding.

Now that's an option I hadn't thought of - I definitely like the idea of that! Thanks for all of your advice and insight, I really appreciate it.

An Amy PAO friend made O-5 last year only to realize that he's just about out of options to avoid Pentagon duty. He's even doing four-star staff tours to stay away from DC. He's probably going to retire at 20 just to avoid the inevitable unrefusable offer.

LOL! When I was in the service, I played a lot of jobs at the Pentagon (retirement ceremonies, Christmas parties, etc.) and it was always my least favorite place to play. Though for us, it was because we usually had to lug all of our music, stands, and instruments through miles of corridors, wearing awfully uncomfortable dress shoes.

 

[Emeritus]

I hate to be the fly in the ointment, but what is your plan if the marriage breaks up? You wrote
" I had a very lucrative job that I gave up in order to be with my DH and I'm still trying to decide exactly what I want to be doing." With no kids, in a divorce, if lucky you get a share of the pension earned to that date. Beyond that you are just on your own.

 

[vlagirl]

I hate to be the fly in the ointment, but what is your plan if the marriage breaks up? You wrote
" I had a very lucrative job that I gave up in order to be with my DH and I'm still trying to decide exactly what I want to be doing." With no kids, in a divorce, if lucky you get a share of the pension earned to that date. Beyond that you are just on your own.

You only get a share of an Army pension if you've been married to the soldier for more than 10 years.

I have no problem being on my own if it comes to that. I don't work much right now because I have the *luxury* of not having to. I have no problem working and I have complete confidence in my ability to support myself comfortably no matter what.

 

[Emeritus]

My extended family has highly trained music professionals in their 40s. Their retirement situation is NIL. It is, frankly not enough to "support yourself" Starting retirement savings in your 40s requires a huge financial contribution. (yes I see you have 43 K in retirement savings) I noted you were converting to a Roth. I wondered why? why pay taxes now on a nest egg that you may tap when your income much lower?

Don't get me wrong, everyone lives their own life. I have simply seen too many military spouses get blindsided by the difficulty of reentering the job market.