Where will S&P 500 be in 10 years?

[Contrarian]

Where will S&P 500 be in 10 years?

 

[REWahoo]

I dunno - where?

 

[MasterBlaster]

Projecting forward with my calibrated Mark I linear eyeball I get 2500.

 

[Contrarian]

Part of reason I posted as poll, apart from testing how to post a poll, is I noticed many seem to have 50% or more in equities from what I can tell. S&P has been flat in nominal terms about a decade. The equity premium seems to be less a principle to be relied upon than a construct based on backtesting. Anyhow was curious what people might predict.

Bob

P.S.-Hurray my tenth post and I got my second star.

 

[DblDoc]

I'd be much more interested on where VT is in 10 years as that is an approximation of what I'm invested in equity wise. I do hold some S&P 500 as it is the only [-]cheap [/-]low cost US equity index fund available in my 401a account.

DD

 

[Alan]

Part of reason I posted as poll, apart from testing how to post a poll, is I noticed many seem to have 50% or more in equities from what I can tell. S&P has been flat in nominal terms about a decade. The equity premium seems to be less a principle to be relied upon than a construct based on backtesting.

I am invested in the total US stock market plus an indexed international fund and these include a great many more companies than the 500 large companies in the S&P 500.

 

[MichaelB]

I didn't vote because I have no clue and there is no option for that view. Nonetheless, my portfolio is more than 50% equities. I suspect the S&P will be somewhat higher in real terms, but in nominal value - who knows.

That said, over those 10 years (just like the past 10 years) it will be much higher and also much lower. S&P is just one equity asset class - large US companies. There are other equity asset classes in the US and around the developed and emerging world.

Businesses create and add value. Of all major investment asset classes, equities offer the most added value by far. Fixed income and commodities create none, real estate creates some. Any portfolio that requires or expects growth will be challenged to achieve that without a healthy allocation to equities.

 

[halcyon]

Where will it be or where do we want it to be?

 

[rescueme]

"The index reached an all-time intraday high of 1,552.87 in trading on March 24, 2000."

Heck, I would be glad if it went back in history a bit ...

 

[dex]

There should be an option for:
"I have no idea/don't know what the stock market will do in the future but, I'm partially or fully invested in it."

Similar to:

'I have no idea/don't know where this bus is going but, I'm getting on board."

 

[Automatika]

I dunno - where?

I vote for Nebraska

Actually voted for +25-50% provided the world doesn't end in 2012

 

[HFWR]

[-]2355[/-] [-]1201[/-] [-]1572[/-] [-]3498[/-] [-]0[/-] 1943!

 

[Keim]

I predict it will maintain its current location:
55 Water Street
New York New York

Or did you mean something different?

 

[Independent]

I wanted to vote "Any of the above" but didn't see that option.

Similarly, I have no idea what the real returns on bonds will be over the next 10 years.
And, no idea on any particular international stock fund.
I used to say I knew what the real returns on TIPS would be, but that was in the days when nobody could envision a US default.

 

[dex]

I wanted to vote "Any of the above" but didn't see that option.

Similarly, I have no idea what the real returns on bonds will be over the next 10 years.
And, no idea on any particular international stock fund.
I used to say I knew what the real returns on TIPS would be, but that was in the days when nobody could envision a US default.

Every poll on this board should have an 'other' choice.

 

[SVHoper]

Hi,

Sorry I have no idea... but I anxiously await the Wheeeeeeeee! posts and the "I'm moving to 100% cash" posts even moreso.

I wouldn't be surprised that there might be an inverse correlation between % of stocks vs bonds, and % of S&P500 as part of stocks. Maybe I am biased but I have had virtually 100% stocks for decade and also 0% of S&P500. Will be grudgingly moving to around 10-15% large caps over next 6 months mainly due to [-]age [/-] becoming a little more conservative.

I can't help generally being optimistic... so I guess that means I believe on average the economy will recover, interest rates will rise gently - bonds won't be as good as past decade, USD will rise gently, international will get a bit of negative currency effect... I guess the alternative would be Japan.

However, I am more certain there will be plenty of rebalancing opportunities

 

[Gone4Good]

Part of reason I posted as poll, apart from testing how to post a poll, is I noticed many seem to have 50% or more in equities from what I can tell. S&P has been flat in nominal terms about a decade. The equity premium seems to be less a principle to be relied upon than a construct based on backtesting. Anyhow was curious what people might predict.

Remember that a decade ago the "equity premium" was non-existent. At the market peak, the "earnings yield" for the S&P 500 was 400 bp lower than the yield for 10-yr government bonds. Today it is 200bp higher. Had stock multiples remained unchanged over the past decade, the S&P 500 would trade at nearly 2,500 today.

I wouldn't look at the past decade's stock returns as anything other than payback for unusually excessive valuations at the starting point. And although the future is uncertain, one thing we know for a fact is that valuations are 50% lower today than they were at the beginning of the last decade.