Vanguard adjustment

[glinka]

I am 65 and retired for 9 years. Have 90% retirement funds in VWIAX, Wellesley income fund Admiral and 10% in VGSTX, Vanguard Star fund.
Concerned about market fall and wonder if it would be best to move into something safer and stable. Some might think this is already too conservative but was just wondering what thoughts were out there.

 

[pb4uski]

I think you are overthinking things. Markets rise and fall, always have and will continue to do so. Unless SS covers your living expenses or you have a COLAed pension that covers your living expenses, you need some equities to provide growth to cover inflation.

As I recall, Wellesley is about a 40/60 AA. Your current AA is pretty conservative and Wellesley has been a good performer over time so I would suggest you stay the course and sleep well at night.

Your AA has worked for you for the last 9 years... why change now?

 

[travelover]

............
Your AA has worked for you for the last 9 years... why change now?

+1 You can't time the markets.

 

[REWahoo]

Concerned about market fall and wonder if it would be best to move into something safer and stable.

Where would you move it where it would be "safer" that wouldn't be eroded by inflation?

Your AA has worked for you for the last 9 years... why change now?

+2

 

[RunningBum]

Your AA has worked for you for the last 9 years... why change now?

Many people shift their AA towards more bonds as they get older, and it sounds like the OP hasn't. I move 1% a year, though I didn't start this conservatively. A small change wouldn't be out of order, like 10% out of one of those funds to a total bond market index. I advise an AA plan, some number minus age, and shift assets accordingly every year. Right now the OP is probably about 105-age, which is reasonable. I wouldn't go lower than 100-age. Mine is higher, but you have to feel comfortable with your risk level.

+1 You can't time the markets.

Some people can. I don't try, and some will try and do worse, but others will do better. It's up to the OP to decide what his/her strategy is since he/she has to live with it.

 

[nash031]

Some people can. I don't try, and some will try and do worse, but others will do better. It's up to the OP to decide what his/her strategy is since he/she has to live with it.

Weren't you trying to time the market last year with a series of sells and benchmarks based on 1970s data and how you thought it was going to be like last time? In the end, I think you sold at 2000 predicting a downturn and bought back in (or intended to) at 2050? What's that if not market timing? Maybe I've got you confused with someone else, but pretty sure you and clifp were talking exactly about a market timing strategy... I could be wrong.

Anyway, no one can time the market consistently.

 

[MichaelB]

Weren't you trying to time the market last year with a series of sells and benchmarks based on 1970s data and how you thought it was going to be like last time? In the end, I think you sold at 2000 predicting a downturn and bought back in (or intended to) at 2050? What's that if not market timing? Maybe I've got you confused with someone else, but pretty sure you and clifp were talking exactly about a market timing strategy... I could be wrong.

Anyway, no one can time the market consistently.

Is this the thread you have in mind? http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/reduced-stock-holdings-to-25-today-from-50-a-73607.html

 

[travelover]

..........
Some people can. I don't try, and some will try and do worse, but others will do better. It's up to the OP to decide what his/her strategy is since he/she has to live with it.

And as CFB would say, some people can put a bag over their head and walk across an expressway, unscathed.

 

[RunningBum]

Weren't you trying to time the market last year with a series of sells and benchmarks based on 1970s data and how you thought it was going to be like last time? In the end, I think you sold at 2000 predicting a downturn and bought back in (or intended to) at 2050? What's that if not market timing? Maybe I've got you confused with someone else, but pretty sure you and clifp were talking exactly about a market timing strategy... I could be wrong.

Anyway, no one can time the market consistently.

Not me. Definitely not me.

 

[nash031]

Is this the thread you have in mind? http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/reduced-stock-holdings-to-25-today-from-50-a-73607.html

Yep! Wrong "running" guy! My apologies, RunningBum!

 

[yakers]

DW has 65% VG Wellesley/ 35% VG Star, works well for her. No reason to change as bonds are as likely to underperform as stocks going forward. Only thing I can do is diversify, hold a reasonable AA and stay awake for buying opportunities.


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