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-   -   FIRE on 4% (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/fire-on-4-a-80779.html)

papadad111 02-23-2016 07:10 AM

FIRE on 4%
 
Yes. My 60-75 percent range is dependent on tax situation.

The gross payout may be 75 percent as is heavily quoted in financial medial but for most early retirees on this forum, there could be tax burdens on that SS money due to other sources of income eg. Dividends, interest on bonds, eventual 401k and IRA RMD's, rental income, etc. Has nothing to do with solvency. It's just income tax impacts. Federal,state,city. Depends in part where u live.

It's a range ...hence 60-75% comment.

Just simply centering on 75% is ok too. But ignores some possible risk

The real point is that it won't likely be the full 100 percent that is received by retirees today ... in two decades time.. So when I file and start collect in 2036 it likely won't be what it is today.

sengsational 02-23-2016 01:04 PM

For me the WR is for people who can't do math, lol! It's a rule of thumb, and about any set of decent retirement calculators could (should) override whatever the rule of thumb says.

And it's meaningless for comparison unless the NPV of future cash flows is included (i.e. SS, pensions). To get an idea of magnitude, compare your current WR with one calculated with the NPV of your expected SS (or .75 SS, if you prefer). I just did that with the annual spend suggested by i-orp, and it changed the WR% by 35%! So a WR of 3% is "really" a 2% WR if you include SS. A WR of 5% is "really" a 3.25% WR if you include SS. Why isn't there a :shakes-head: icon?

daylatedollarshort 02-23-2016 01:50 PM

Our income and expenses change every year and will continue to change every year throughout retirement - college, hobby income, new cars, ACA or not, Medicare, taxes on RMDs, paying off the mortgage and having interest expense decrease, non-COLA pensions losing value over time, etc. We plug it all in a spreadsheet and have real rates of return and inflation as variable parameters.

haha 02-23-2016 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort (Post 1699975)
One of our best ER finds so far has been comp ticket lists / services. We can fog a mirror, like going to a variety of events and venues want their events to look sold out, so it works out. I see the symphony come up from time to time on our lists.

Thanks Day Late. I had never heard of this. A senior membership, which gets 2 tickets seems to cost $6.50/mo., after the $25 three month intro.

Later I will see if I can view a sample of available events.

Ha

hnzw_rui 02-23-2016 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sengsational (Post 1700392)
For me the WR is for people who can't do math, lol! It's a rule of thumb, and about any set of decent retirement calculators could (should) override whatever the rule of thumb says.

And it's meaningless for comparison unless the NPV of future cash flows is included (i.e. SS, pensions). To get an idea of magnitude, compare your current WR with one calculated with the NPV of your expected SS (or .75 SS, if you prefer). I just did that with the annual spend suggested by i-orp, and it changed the WR% by 35%! So a WR of 3% is "really" a 2% WR if you include SS. A WR of 5% is "really" a 3.25% WR if you include SS. Why isn't there a :shakes-head: icon?

Given I can't rebalance between SS/pension and my portfolio and there are age restrictions to when you can access those funds, instead of using NPV of SS/pension, I just reduce expenditures by the expected SS/pension benefit (adjusted by some safety factor). My planned WR is then based on that reduced amount.

daylatedollarshort 02-23-2016 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha (Post 1700411)
Thanks Day Late. I had never heard of this. A senior membership, which gets 2 tickets seems to cost $6.50/mo., after the $25 three month intro.

Later I will see if I can view a sample of available events.

Ha

I hadn't heard of them either until last fall. I stumbled on one of the lists last year online, then we met some retired people at a play who told us about another list, and since then I have found a few more. Many of the improv groups / theaters / symphonies / dance companies here have some way to deal with unsold tickets, like Goldstar, lotteries, the tixtoday app, a hotline or a subscription service. I've got a list I check each day.

FreeBear 02-23-2016 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MildlyEccentric (Post 1699910)
For me, the difficult decision was how much over 4% I would be willing to go in the early years to safely cross the chasm of no income and sequence of return risk to a more sustainable spending rate after I collect social security. FIRECALC was helpful as it permits modeling this exact scenario.

+1

Yep, in the same boat. Sure, I'd be more comfortable with a lower initial withdrawal, esp. due to sequence of return risk. On the other hand, DW and I were not getting younger and we've got other things we want to do other than w*rk all the time. A calculated risk for sure...

Agreed that tools like Firecalc and others are greatly helpful in running somewhat complex scenarios that are generally representative of the real world (non-zero expense ratios, SS at various times, various AA's, etc). I wish I had these tools earlier during the accumulation phase. Heck, I wish I knew more about this LBYM and early retirement subculture years ago. I would have even been more motivated and maybe saved even more. In the end, no worries since I got to FIRE anyway! :dance:

FB

FreeBear 02-23-2016 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papadad111 (Post 1699851)
Same conclusion - SPIAs are expensive and cola'd SPIAs even more so, very few SPIAs protect against inflation. In this era of super low rates, one is probably better to go it alone with a relatively high AA tilted toward equities. Especially to fund 30 or 40 years in retirement.

I'm also a believer in equities since I didn't save an overwhelming amount for ER. The money still has to go out and w*rk for me. I ran 90% to 100% equities during the accumulation phase. Just stopped looking at the balances during the Great Recession...

I've trimmed to about 50% equities over past 3 yrs, including my first year of retirement, as a defensive move against potential bad sequence returns early in ER that can be so toxic long-term. I plan to move to 60% equities in about 5 yrs or so, whenever we decide to start SS. "Rising glide path", I think.

FB

DrRoy 02-23-2016 03:49 PM

I think that the 4% rule was workable in the period of our lifetimes, but the future may be different. Global population and productivity growth have decelerated in recent years, and these are important factors for economic growth and corporate profits, and thus for higher equity prices. I will RE next year at age 58, and am not comfortable with a 4% WR. I will have a modest pension and my additional WR will be under 2%. Without the pension I would still only need 2.4%.

FreeBear 02-23-2016 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmm99 (Post 1700186)
Your numbers on the graph are looking great! Unfortunately, my portfolio has taken a dive since my retirement (last April) - that is even if I hadn't taken any money out. I have several years of cash reserves and that's what I am using for expenses anyway so no worries, but I think I will feel a whole lot better once the market picks up again. Anyway, yeah, it looks like you are doing great! I wouldn't mind spending some extra if I were in your shoes.

I feel your pain. I too am glad to have a few years in cash plus even more bonds to tide me over (and rebalance!) if needed. A major saving grace is that I sold high equities through 2014 and 2015 to transition to my current 50/50 AA.

Now I'm a bit a of Nervous Nellie. So I avoid looking at egg nest and just revisit plan to reduce unnecessary expense. A bit of a character building experience... Still, I'm finding that I don't have to buy as much crap and services to bribe me to go to w*rk now that I'm retired. So far, so good! ;D

jcretire77 02-23-2016 04:52 PM

I am probably repeating, so apologies - Looking at NPV of Social Security I found this interesting article - https://www.kitces.com/blog/valuing-...balance-sheet/

papadad111 02-23-2016 07:18 PM

This has been a very good discussion. It's a topic often discussed but always some good new angles or perspectives.

Coolio !!

NW-Bound 02-23-2016 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papadad111 (Post 1700217)
Not sure one has to give up anything ... Just have a big enough egg that 3% or something along those lines is enough to play the long game. ...

For most workers, a 3% WR coupled with a really early retirement means a reduction in living standards, unless they have a very good income during their short working years. Most would have to be very frugal both during the accumulation phase as well as during retirement.

audreyh1 02-23-2016 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hnzw_rui (Post 1700413)
Given I can't rebalance between SS/pension and my portfolio and there are age restrictions to when you can access those funds, instead of using NPV of SS/pension, I just reduce expenditures by the expected SS/pension benefit (adjusted by some safety factor). My planned WR is then based on that reduced amount.

Ah, sanity!

audreyh1 02-23-2016 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound (Post 1700563)
For most workers, a 3% WR coupled with a really early retirement means a reduction in living standards, unless they have a very good income during their short working years. Most would have to be very frugal both during the accumulation phase as well as during retirement.

Or had some stock options turn into gold.....

Nords 02-24-2016 12:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papadad111 (Post 1700520)
This has been a very good discussion. It's a topic often discussed but always some good new angles or perspectives.

After over a decade of rediscovering and rehashing those angles & perspectives... not so much.

I'll summarize the last ~130 posts :
1. 4% is "good enough".
2. If you want to be even safer, then work longer. It's called "Just One More Year" Syndrome.

But if another 130+ comments would boost your confidence, or at least make you feel satisfied about working longer, then carry on!

Danmar 02-24-2016 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords (Post 1700575)
After over a decade of rediscovering and rehashing those angles & perspectives... not so much.

I'll summarize the last ~130 posts :
1. 4% is "good enough".
2. If you want to be even safer, then work longer. It's called "Just One More Year" Syndrome.

But if another 130+ comments would boost your confidence, or at least make you feel satisfied about working longer, then carry on!

Agree. There are only so many ways to say the same thing. But I guess new members or those in changed conditions, might pick something up.

misshathaway 02-24-2016 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreeBear (Post 1700440)
Still, I'm finding that I don't have to buy as much crap and services to bribe me to go to w*rk now that I'm retired.

Isn't that the truth. I had a Starbucks right across the street and that was the highlight of every working day. I used to put $100 at a time on my card.

Just traded in my gigantic iPhone 6 Plus, which I used to consume media and try to escape during my horrendous stop-and-go, mostly-stop, commute all the way home. Even with the Sprint cancellation fee I am saving a boatload. My phone is just a receiver of calls now, not a pacifier. I have Ting. I still haven't cracked $20 for this month.

papadad111 02-24-2016 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danmar (Post 1700694)
Agree. There are only so many ways to say the same thing. But I guess new members might pick something up.


Well. I've been on this forum since some time in 2007, so I guess if I'm a newbie with just a decade on here ... and I can pick up a few things ....so be it.

I fired in 2015... Perspectives change when in spend down versus accumulation phase .

Danmar 02-24-2016 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papadad111 (Post 1700728)

I fired in 2015... Perspectives change when in spend down versus accumulation phase .

Ok, if your conditions change and you are now thinking a lot more about how much you can spend in draw down mode, you will pick up a lot. I've been in draw down mode for almost ten years and have basically solved this issue for myself.


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