Poll:Dow , S and P , predictions for end of 2017

[Lakewood90712]

Your guesses for next year.

 

[street]

I have no scientific method to my vote it will be high then the end of 2016. If it is lower I will survive the dips. I will not have gained or lost anything until I sell and I have no intentions of selling in the near future.

 

[Alan]

Your guesses for next year.

42

 

[braumeister]

42

+1
No, wait. That would be 43. This is tougher than it looked!

 

[Danmar]

Why would anyone try to predict the unknowable?

 

[bbbamI]

42

+1
No, wait. That would be 43. This is tougher than it looked!

You're both wrong..it's 22. C'mon 22....!!!

 

[NW-Bound]

I like this poll which only asks for the direction, up or down. This is hard enough by itself.

In the past, polls asked for a number, which was like playing a number on the roulette. Just Red or Black please.

 

[DrRoy]

Higher or lower than now.

 

[Senator]

We have had quite a few up years, we are due for a down year. Plus, I just retired.

OTOH, it should be a great year for business.

 

[Alan]

Market up or down is a bit like flipping a coin. Even if Heads has come up 9 times in a row, the chance for Heads next time is still 50/50.

 

[NW-Bound]

The market tends to be up more often than down. In 189 years between 1825 and 2013, the market was up 134 years, and down 55 years. So, it was up 71% of the time. The chance for up is higher than 2x the chance for down. See: http://basehitinvesting.com/the-stock-market-a-look-at-the-last-200-years/.

So, I voted for up because that direction is historically more likely, although it may not be up very much.

About the feeling that several up years in a row may increase the odds of a down year, I guess if the P/E gets higher and higher, at some point the bubble is going to bust. Are we there yet? Probably not.

The problem is still that it takes many years to inflate up the bubble, then for it to pop in an instant. Predicting the exact moment when that balloon is going to burst is difficult. There are also all kinds of events that can happen to trigger it (or not): terrorism, political events, hurricanes and earthquakes, etc...

 

[Texas Proud]

+1
No, wait. That would be 43. This is tougher than it looked!

Nope... the super computer took over 7 million years to figure it out.... from wiki...

The number 42 is, in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams, the "Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything", calculated by an enormous supercomputer named Deep Thought over a period of 7.5 million years. Unfortunately, no one knows what the question is.​

 

[Earl E Retyre]

What is a "mater"?

 

[Texas Proud]

What is a "mater"?

LOL... reading so fast did not notice the missing T....

 

[FIREd]

Our expenses are set to decrease next year due to much lower housing expenses, so even if the market drops we'll be OK.

 

[MichaelB]

What is a "mater"?

She's married to "Pater"

 

[cooch96]

I voted down. If it goes up, then I'm wrong but will be richer. If it goes down, at least I'll be right.

 

[CaliKid]

I predict it will be bigly!