Not loving the up and up of the markets

D

dvalley

Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Joined
Jul 31, 2013
Messages
1,046
OK unlike the other thread it's hard for me to see the market going up like nuts while I sit on the sidelines. Unfortunately I cashed out 70% of most of my assets late last year. I did so to consolidate all of my old 401ks, IRAs etc into vanguard. The plan was to DCA it all back in but I was waiting for a 'break' which I was hoping would come in Feb :mad:

I think I'm going to be patient and in the mean time possibly pay down my 3.75% mortgage to lessen the hurt.
 
dvalley said:
OK unlike the other thread it's hard for me to see the market going up like nuts while I sit on the sidelines. Unfortunately I cashed out 70% of most of my assets late last year. I did so to consolidate all of my old 401ks, IRAs etc into vanguard. The plan was to DCA it all back in but I was waiting for a 'break' which I was hoping would come in Feb :mad:

I think I'm going to be patient and in the mean time possibly pay down my 3.75% mortgage to lessen the hurt.
Click to expand...

Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. Built a home in early 2008 for big bucks so I had to cash out a lot of investment income. Then when I sold the old home for big bucks in 2009 I kept it all in cash, missing most of the Recession losses. I must be a genius! Then the market started going up and up and up, while I sat there waiting for the inevitable drop so I could buy back in. It took me over 4 years to realize I could only time the market through luck and started DCA'ing back in. I missed a lot of growth, but not all of it. Just learn your lesson, take your lumps, and do it. I wouldn't pay down the mortgage, but that's me.
 
Don't worry. Stocks should be imploding in about a week. I recently came into a wad of cash which I am fixing to plow into the market. That usually does the trick. :)
 
Yes, I figure I'll invest the surplus cash in two stages. The first 20% will trigger a Market Sell-off like it always does -- HA !!

Then I'll invest the other 80% buying more of the cheapened shares.
 
Haha, yeah that's what I think will happen with me too (this is based on past personal experience) as soon as I dump my money in it'll lose 20-30% right away.
 
If you pay of the mortgage you'll get 3.75% return immediately... that should lessen the pain.

Personally I'd DCA even though the market is rather high right now. By doing it in chunks over time for sure *some* of the chunks will be a better deal than *other* chunks... If the market continues up - your early chunks will be in the money... if the market crashes - your later chunks will be bargains. Figure out your period (monthly?) and your allotments (10 months, 20 months?) and start the DCA process.
 
I am down to 68% equities and holding. In fact my target 60/40 split has just got screwed up by doing nothing! I promise I will rebalance anytime now, just a little longer...
 
To OP: Just be patient. The market is due for a turn. In the financial arena, people (especially small investors piling in now) are expecting everything to be just perfect going forward, exports will boom, imports will drop, GDP will grow 4%, all the lost jobs will come back, companies will send back all the money stored abroad, corporate taxes will drop to 15%, regulation will be rolled back, job-killing Obamacare will be repealed and replaced by something cheaper and better ... But reality will soon intrude, probably later this year.

Not that I am unhappy with the market going up, but I am realistic and the markets won't go up in a straight line forever.
 
I need a limit order to buy NUMV and my instinct is to set it low but I want it in reasonable time and the market keeps going up. Someone just give me a number! Right now it's "$25.67 (Good 'til Canceled)" but I don't see that happening.
 
NUMV is such a thinly traded ETF that one could pay too much or too little for it. You wanted a socially-conscious ETF, else could have gone with an ETF that has more volume and liquidity, such as IJJ which is also a mid-cap value ETF.
 
kcowan said:
I am down to 68% equities and holding. In fact my target 60/40 split has just got screwed up by doing nothing! I promise I will rebalance anytime now, just a little longer...
Click to expand...

I too have a 60/40. When it gets to 61/39 I rebalance back to 60/40. Might miss some upside in an extended bull market but it helps me to feel in control. Some don't need that but I do.

On Friday our stocks were at 60.6% of the portfolio, and another good day today. Might have to pull the trigger very soon.

Oh, and I do market time but the last signal to do so was back in December 2007. I didn't have my system in place back then. :facepalm: The system says to stay invested right now so you can all sleep well tonight.

For the OP: nobody knows what is next. Timing might work but only at the extremes and in my opinion we are not there yet.
 
Last edited:
dvalley said:
I think I'm going to be patient and in the mean time possibly pay down my 3.75% mortgage to lessen the hurt.
Click to expand...

In early 2003 I got tired of the market going down seemingly every year (it had been 3) and refinanced from a 30 to a 15. That was nearly the bottom for the next 4 years.
 
Last edited:
I'm still new to figuring out and understanding all the moving money in and out of 401k's and IRA's. Are you sitting on this money or is it at Vanguard? You couldn't rollover "in Kind"? Don't you have to pay taxes if you use the rollover money to pay off/down your mortgage?
 
Of course you would pay taxes if you cash out your retirement funds to pay your mortgage. Bigly, er, big league. :)

I think these posters talked about using after-tax money in their brokerage account.
 
Last edited:
Every time I start wondering if I should avoid putting money into the market while we're at "highs", I look at the long term chart and remind myself that for most of the time the market has existed it has been at or around "all time highs" for the market at the time. Then I dutifully put my money in the market so I can look back 5 or 10 years later and smile at my wise decision.
 
Be fearful when others are greedy (extended bull markets) and greedy when others are fearful (inevitable bear markets) - Warren Buffet
 
exnavynuke said:
Every time I start wondering if I should avoid putting money into the market while we're at "highs", I look at the long term chart and remind myself that for most of the time the market has existed it has been at or around "all time highs" for the market at the time. Then I dutifully put my money in the market so I can look back 5 or 10 years later and smile at my wise decision.
Click to expand...

Right. Catching those little blips down (red arrows below) is not easy and distinguishing them from the recessionary declines is harder.

Here is a long term semilog chart of VFINX (SP500 with dividends):

VFINX_blips_down.jpg
 
splitwdw said:
I'm still new to figuring out and understanding all the moving money in and out of 401k's and IRA's. Are you sitting on this money or is it at Vanguard? You couldn't rollover "in Kind"? Don't you have to pay taxes if you use the rollover money to pay off/down your mortgage?
Click to expand...

I have all the transferred funds sitting in a VG Rollover-IRA account. The transfers were done in-kind from one company to another without taking any distributions so no tax or penalties. However, I sold the assets when I felt was the right time and then move them over to VG. Sometimes the processing took about 2 weeks since they insisted sending the in-kind transfer check to my home address and I had to forward it to VG. For this reason I sold off the funds rather than letting them do it at their choosing.

Regarding the mortgage question, I wouldn't use the rollover-IRA funds to pay down/off the mortgage but instead the cash reserves in my cash/brokerage accounts. However, most likely I'll leave the mortgage alone.
 
Aside from the joking around on the other (whee, earthworms) thread, I really haven't paid much attention since I figure what the market does is really out of my control. Something I don't dwell on. I did my AA rebalancing beginning of year.
 
NW-Bound said:
NUMV is such a thinly traded ETF that one could pay too much or too little for it. You wanted a socially-conscious ETF, else could have gone with an ETF that has more volume and liquidity, such as IJJ which is also a mid-cap value ETF.
Click to expand...

I canceled and ordered IJJ for the bid price.
 
I'm about to make our $11000 Roth IRA contributions and drop a few thousand into my solo 401k so that should do the trick for you. Just hold off till Friday or next Monday if you don't mind waiting for the crash.
 
Mdlerth said:
Don't worry. Stocks should be imploding in about a week. I recently came into a wad of cash which I am fixing to plow into the market. That usually does the trick. :)
Click to expand...

I wish you guys who are talking about doing this would just do it. That way I can ride your coat tails down without investing the initial amount needed to sink the market. Then I can invest 100%, not 80%!

Thank you in advance for taking the arrows.....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

S
using up the PT benefit
Replies
15
Views
468
old medic
O
T
2022 Tax Error, and IRS Rant
Replies
8
Views
538
Sunset
Sunset
A
Benefits of Former employer 401k, New Employer 401k, or Rollover?
Replies
18
Views
727
Aiming_4_55
A
njhowie
Heads Up: TurboTax + Fixed Income + Accrued Interest
Replies
12
Views
2K
gauss
gauss
N
Reverse Mortgage
Replies
9
Views
457
old medic
O

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom