TimeMeasure
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Jul 28, 2017
- Messages
- 101
Hi all,
After reading this forum for awhile now, I've come to appreciate the unique tone of the discourse here - generally thoughtful, reasonable, well-considered, well-informed, courteous - and with a healthy dose of humor. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on our situation and plans.
Current situation:
So, on the face of it, we look to be in reasonable shape. Where I would welcome the collective wisdom of you folks is on a few points:
The questions:
1 - Most generally - is anything missing in our thinking?
After reading this forum for awhile now, I've come to appreciate the unique tone of the discourse here - generally thoughtful, reasonable, well-considered, well-informed, courteous - and with a healthy dose of humor. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on our situation and plans.
Current situation:
- DW and I are in good health. I'm in my early 50s; DW is in her late 60s.
- I work at a financial firm in New England, income in the low 6 figures. DW is retired.
- Our investable assets are about 43x expenses, i.e. roughly around a 2.3% WR, when estimated realistically and on the side of caution.
Being more conservative, by increasing discretionary spending and contingency estimates, would take assets down to 37x expenses - i.e. around a 2.7% WR. - We have no debt. House is paid off. DD is on her own, successful and independent.
- Our asset allocation needs a bit of tidying up - too much in cash - but that is in process. If / when I FIRE, will put asset allocation in order.
- FIRECalc yields results consistently at 100% or very near it. Adding in assumptions for unfortunate scenarios drops the rate to 95%.
- Like many folks here, I also do fairly extensive spreadsheet modeling, which substantiates the notion that, barring black swans, we are likely to be all right - even if I were to pull the plug immediately.
- Still need to run i-orp, Fidelity RIP, etc.
- Right now, DW is on my health insurance. If I FIRE, then my wife would be on Medicare + Medigap, and I would purchase a health insurance plan through the state exchange, since I would have no health benefits from my firm unless I wait until 55, and even then, it is only access to group exchange rates, unsubsidized. A good silver tier plan, through the state health exchange, runs around $8,000 / year, with a $2,000 deductible and $5,500 estimated out of pocket expenses.
- We would stay in our current house. It's paid off and we're comfortable here. Amortized major expenses for the house, and for other big ticket items like auto purchases, are in the projected expenses.
- We would travel, probably 2 or 3 big trips a year, with smaller excursions, for as long as we're able. All this is in the projected expenses.
- Neither of us has a pension, but DW has SSI of around $24k / year. I'll likely wait to claim until age 67.
- I've considered the possibility of significant health care expenses - e.g. if we need for a period of time to move together to assisted living, and then transition to memory care (more on this below), while keeping our current house. Even if we plan on additional expenses of $100,000 / year for 5-10 years, FIRECalc yields 95%+ success.
- I'm considering giving notice before EOY, mainly for 2 reasons - and here's where there's a twist on the usual scenarios posted here:
- Mitigating safety risk. DW is in the early stages of early-onset Alzheimer's. She is still fairly lucid; the variant of the disease she has affects mainly memory so far - severely, but largely sparing cognition and other faculties. Still, the risk of safety issues is increasing.
- Having a last few years - or however long it is - of at least somewhat normal life together. Right now, we can still do activities together - museums, movies, travel, hiking - even if her comprehension is slightly diminished, and I can keep our lives going administratively, albeit with a good bit of effort. Once she enters the moderate stage, though, all that will likely be over, and I'll be a full-time caregiver.
So, we have a trade-off - Do I work until it's no longer feasible, meaning we give up these last few years of somewhat normal life together, or do we opt for some time for us to spend more time together, before night falls. We're leaning toward the latter.
The questions:
1 - Most generally - is anything missing in our thinking?
I have a nagging sense that I am missing some key considerations, but can't put my finger on it. Probably many of you are familiar with this black crow of risk analysis that rides around on one's shoulder, and caws at inopportune moments, as one scans the road ahead...
2 - Any thoughts on how best to estimate taxes in retirement?
I've searched the forum, and the web, for information on this topic, and have found some useful points to consider - but this seems to be an important topic which, curiously, gets comparatively little attention. Maybe an avoidance reaction when we all think about taxes...
3 - And finally - where in your calculus does your obligation to yourself and your family outweigh your obligation to others?
This is personal and subjective, of course, but I'd be interested in your thoughts. I don't have any sense of owing the firm anything - but when my wife's condition became more severe, I called upon the collective good will of connections at the firm to negotiate a position (at reduced salary and responsibility) which would allow me to work from home far more often to take care of my wife. I have no illusions of being indispensable, but it's hard to get past the sense that the optics of my leaving the firm after that kind of assistance would be unfortunate for the people who helped in a pinch.
Thank you all in advance for your thoughts.