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hgm735 01-30-2018 12:01 AM

Haven't gambled in over 6 months, thanks to here
 
Just to give an update, I was invested in a bunch of ETFs and kept pulling in and out of the market earlier last year.

It's been over 6 months, and I've held steady with a 60/40 US/Int'l stock/bond mix in mutual funds. Getting out of ETFs cured the habit, as frequent trading is discouraged.

I now look at the market daily but avoid panic or prediction news articles about the markets. The daily swings don't phase me at all as they had before, and part of this is because I am quite comfortable with my allocation. Also, I don't have the immediacy of the ETFs, therefore there is one step removed psychologically. (This may not be the case for everyone, and ETFs may be a good fit for someone else - just speaking of my own experience here)

Anyway, just wanted to update all and thank you all here for the input you've given over the months.

IMATERP 01-30-2018 05:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hgm735 (Post 2004993)
Just to give an update, I was invested in a bunch of ETFs and kept pulling in and out of the market earlier last year.

It's been over 6 months, and I've held steady with a 60/40 US/Int'l stock/bond mix in mutual funds. Getting out of ETFs cured the habit, as frequent trading is discouraged.

I now look at the market daily but avoid panic or prediction news articles about the markets. The daily swings don't phase me at all as they had before, and part of this is because I am quite comfortable with my allocation. Also, I don't have the immediacy of the ETFs, therefore there is one step removed psychologically. (This may not be the case for everyone, and ETFs may be a good fit for someone else - just speaking of my own experience here)

Anyway, just wanted to update all and thank you all here for the input you've given over the months.

It is so tempting to "try" and time the market - but usually the results are not good. My trading patterns were similar (but with stocks) in the late 90's. A few major down days led me to look for a couple of long term mutual funds that I would be willing to hold forever - and just accept trying to match the overall market with respect to overall percentage gain.

If I want to gamble, then I'd just put $1000 in my pocket and go to Vegas for the weekend. Thankfully, with age, I've recovered from having to "waste" my time, efforts, and money trying to beat the "house."

Cheers,

I

DrRoy 01-30-2018 05:08 AM

Last year was one of the lowest volatility periods ever experienced. Easy to handle. People need to remember it will not always be that easy.

Onward 01-30-2018 07:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hgm735 (Post 2004993)
It's been over 6 months, and I've held steady with a 60/40 US/Int'l stock/bond mix in mutual funds.

Most people think the market is something "out there" that needs to be conquered.

In fact the secret is mastering your inner psychology.

Well done.

mystang52 01-30-2018 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onward (Post 2005028)
Most people think the market is something "out there" that needs to be conquered.

In fact the secret is mastering your inner psychology.

Well done.


Well said.

street 01-30-2018 08:10 AM

Good for you.

There has been many threads related to your topic since I found this site. I always felt an outsider when it comes to just staying pat and do nothing in good or bad market times. Doing nothing has been successful for me. Not easy to do when times are bad though. LOL

bobandsherry 01-30-2018 08:22 AM

It's been an up market, almost any approach has made money. The true test will be when market turns south and how well things look then.

OldShooter 01-30-2018 08:33 AM

It took me 30 years to learn that the more I play with my food, the less food I have. Don't feel bad that it took you some time, too.

Remember Buffet's observation: "The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

pb4uski 01-30-2018 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onward (Post 2005028)
Most people think the market is something "out there" that needs to be conquered.

In fact the secret is mastering your inner psychology.

Well done.

+1. Slow and steady wins the race. Stay the course.

Sunset 01-30-2018 08:47 AM

Good for OP.

I have found for me, individual stocks are the 'gamble' part, as I like to think the one I buy is going to do better than the others.

For me, ETF's are just like mutual funds, I don't trade in & out of them as they are so broad based, individual companies may go up or down, but generally the entire thing goes up more often than down. So I leave it alone.

bobandsherry 01-30-2018 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldShooter (Post 2005062)
It took me 30 years to learn that the more I play with my food, the less food I have. Don't feel bad that it took you some time, too.

Remember Buffet's observation: "The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

Buffet says many things, but his own actions sometime show otherwise. Look at how Berkshire jumped out of Walmart early last year, sold off $900 million when shares of WMT were about $70. In summer of 2016 Buffet had roughly $3B invested in WMT (shares also around $70). He sold off while share price went up, today WMT at $107. If Buffet was truly patient his 2016 holding of $3B would be worth $4.5B today, plus another ~2% in dividends. Warren does many smart things, but he also stumbles like the rest of us, he just has a bigger bankroll that helps to soften the blow :)

Onward 01-30-2018 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldShooter (Post 2005062)
the more I play with my food, the less food I have

Never heard that. I like it!

Senator 01-30-2018 09:17 AM

1 Attachment(s)
I am in the market with index ETFs. In my non-real estate investments, I m ~95%. I really don't keep too much track of percentages, as I try to invest extra cash. It makes a big difference.

Here is a Fidelity provided example of what using buy and hold investing, rather than timing, has done for me. The gap is about 20%.

OldShooter 01-30-2018 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobandsherry (Post 2005085)
Buffet says many things, but his own actions sometime show otherwise. Look at how Berkshire jumped out of Walmart early last year, sold off $900 million when shares of WMT were about $70. In summer of 2016 Buffet had roughly $3B invested in WMT (shares also around $70). He sold off while share price went up, today WMT at $107. If Buffet was truly patient his 2016 holding of $3B would be worth $4.5B today, plus another ~2% in dividends. Warren does many smart things, but he also stumbles like the rest of us, he just has a bigger bankroll that helps to soften the blow :)

Probably true, but irrelevant. The point is the salience of the quotation, not what Buffet may or many not do. Frankly, I think he is somewhat overrated but he is a great source of insightful quotations.

bobandsherry 01-30-2018 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldShooter (Post 2005283)
Probably true, but irrelevant. The point is the salience of the quotation, not what Buffet may or many not do. Frankly, I think he is somewhat overrated but he is a great source of insightful quotations.

I guess if people just follow advise due to it being a catchy or insightful quotation, well then carry on. But when a person says one thing and does another, well, I just have to discount their advise. Warren has amassed a great fortune, but not sure he's done it all "by the book" from his own sage quotations. After all, he's also been quoted as saying "Our favorite holding period is forever", but we see that's not really how he runs his business.

hgm735 01-31-2018 02:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunset (Post 2005072)
Good for OP.

I have found for me, individual stocks are the 'gamble' part, as I like to think the one I buy is going to do better than the others.

For me, ETF's are just like mutual funds, I don't trade in & out of them as they are so broad based, individual companies may go up or down, but generally the entire thing goes up more often than down. So I leave it alone.

I knew this rationally but still couldn't sit on hands. My mutual fund investments are virtually identical to the ETFs I was in, but somehow having that lag has made all the difference.

jazz4cash 01-31-2018 10:11 PM

Nice job OP. Have you met Boho?

hgm735 02-01-2018 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jazz4cash (Post 2006033)
Nice job OP. Have you met Boho?

Thanks :) What is Boho?

jazz4cash 02-01-2018 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hgm735 (Post 2006059)
Thanks :) What is Boho?



Inside Joke. Poke around and you'll find this member seems reluctant to make the strategy changes as you have done.

bloom2708 02-01-2018 12:46 PM

I encourage people to use the mutual fund versions of a fund even if there is an ETF.

What do you do with ETFs? You trade them silly. What if I don't want to trade? Doesn't matter, trade is in the name. Have to.

I kid of course. When the next big slump hits, don't look. Stay the course and only check in to see if your re-balance band has been hit.


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