Poll:What will happen with Social Security in the next 30-40 years

[220volt]

No one, of course, knows for sure, but based on reasonable assumptions and knowledge you possess, what is your best guess?

 

[Brett_Cameron]

They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.

 

[athena53]

They'll also increase taxation of Social Security for those who have income from other sources- in other words, making it more needs-based.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

My best guess is that it will still be there, but probably in some reduced form. I can't see it being taken completely away, but I can't see it going on like it has been, because it's not sustainable. My best guess is that in 30 or 40 years, retirees collecting SS will get 10-35% less than what they would have gotten if no cuts were involved.

You asked for a guess and that's mine.

 

[dtbach]

All of the above. To try to decrease payments would roil the politics to new levels and would be a "losing proposition" to whichever party suggests it.

 

[athena53]

All of the above. To try to decrease payments would roil the politics to new levels and would be a "losing proposition" to whichever party suggests it.

But increasing taxes on SS income will be OK, right?

 

[GrayHare]

They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.

+1 Since those changes have been done before and have proved palatable, it seems likely they'll be repeated/expanded. When FRA was initially set to 65 the average life span was about 70 years. Now that lifespan has extended to about 80 years, one could argue FRA should be advanced to 75 but that probably is too big a jump from the current 67 to be done in one step.

 

[joeea]

Social Security will pretty much stay as it is, with mildly increased real benefits as more of the boomer population retires.

Retirement age will not increase, so as to leave job space for younger, cheaper workers.

Funding will increasingly come from the younger, ever-growing immigrant population as the country's demographics steadily change over time.

There will be no need to tax more of the benefits, since the robust robot-driven economy will take care of things.

 

[220volt]

So another question would be if they do make any changes, who will be grandfathered in? People in their 40's, the 50's?

 

[220volt]

Social Security will pretty much stay as it is, with mildly increased real benefits as more of the boomer population retires.

Retirement age will not increase, so as to leave job space for younger, cheaper workers.

Funding will increasingly come from the younger, ever-growing immigrant population as the country's demographics steadily change over time.

There will be no need to tax more of the benefits, since the robust robot-driven economy will take care of things.

Man, I wish I had your optimism.

 

[Cut-Throat]

The Demographics of the Country are changing with the Gap in wealth increasing to the Levels immediately before the Great Depression.... So, my guess is that the poorer voters with zero pensions will be electing Politicians that promise to protect and expand the program. Remember that S.S. was ushered in after the Great Depression.....

 

[220volt]

The Demographics of the Country are changing with the Gap in wealth increasing to the Levels immediately before the Great Depression.... So, my guess is that the poorer voters with zero pensions will be electing Politicians that promise to protect and expand the program. Remember that S.S. was ushered in after the Great Depression.....

Only 11% companies currently provide pensions and that number is going down. So it is safe to assume that SS will provide the majority of their incomes. However, I am not sure that the public always votes in their best interest.

 

[CardsFan]

I voted that will remain as is. At least on the benefit side (for someone over 62).

What I expect (hope?) is a combination of things said above:
- contribution rate will increase, but only a little. maybe only the employer contribution, so the employee "thinks" it did not affect him/her
- cap on earnings limit will be raised or eliminated, with no change on the benefit cap
- an increase in FRA, ultimately to 70, but keeping the early (62) benefit (but maybe reducing it accordingly). Phased in over 10 years or so, like last time
- change the 85% limit on taxes so 100% will be taxed at certain incomes

I recall a white paper that was referenced here once before, that basically listed a series of fairly small items like these that would solve the problem for "another 50 years".

There could be a few more tweaks. Some of these really add money to the system, others (like taxing 100%) are primarily to show that the "older folks" are paying too.

So maybe I should have voted differently, but I don't see any of these significantly reducing the benefit, or creating a hardship.

 

[Cut-Throat]

Only 11% companies currently provide pensions and that number is going down. So it is safe to assume that SS will provide the majority of their incomes. However, I am not sure that the public always votes in their best interest.

For sure you are correct on that point! ....

But when a Big enough calamity happens such as the Great Depression, that usually gets the Public's attention!

 

[NYEXPAT]

Tax the robots and remove the words "collective bargaining" from the English language.

 

[exnavynuke]

I voted "as is", but I really only mean "the payment system will remain as is". The FRA will probably go up, tax changes will be likely implemented to increase funding (whether new taxes, changes to caps, etc I couldn't say at this point) though, so I guess my answer is "it will stay the same while it changes".

 

[VanWinkle]

They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.

+1 I agree with this evaluation.

 

[38Chevy454]

They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more. My wild guess based on what I know.

I agree with these ideas, but could also see some means testing to reduce benefits to high income retirees. In other words a haircut for those that have saved and provided for their retirement.

 

[foxfirev5]

As the poll is worded I voted for a cut in benefits through limits, taxation or other rule changes such as COLA, FRA etc. Like some many other areas, the bulk of the people won't notice since their monthly checks are largely unaffected. I will revisit my forecast in 15 years. And that's all I've got to say about that.

 

[Dtail]

+1 I agree with this evaluation.

+2 Exactly my thoughts.

 

[Dtail]

They'll also increase taxation of Social Security for those who have income from other sources- in other words, making it more needs-based.

On a sliding scale upwards, aren't they effectively already taxing more SS depending on your other income sources?

 

[athena53]

On a sliding scale upwards, aren't they effectively already taxing more SS depending on your other income sources?

Yes (firsthand knowledge- just filed my own taxes)- and I can see the taxation of SS being increased in the future- higher rates, lower threshold for income which triggers taxation of SS.

 

[RunningBum]

Hard to say what will happen. The most useful exercise, IMO, is to predict a reasonable worst case for your situation and prepare for it. For me, I'm factoring in a 25% cut in benefits. It could be worse than that, or they could make changes that will affect me less, or not at all.

Trying to predict what will happen, or say what should happen, don't seem like good use of my time, except for the extent of paying attention to what my current and potential representatives are proposing.

 

[Breedlove]

I think Social Security will survive . For the ones grandfathered into it . I think there will be a cutoff . The youngest of the young will be able to take what is their SSI money and invest it into securities similar to what happened to pensions and 401k's

I personally don't like this but the boys on Wall street have tried for years to get the SSI money . The fund should become flush with money as Baby boomers pass , and this idea will kick start the markets .

 

[Car-Guy]

They will raise the FICA contribution rate and remove the cap on earnings subject to FICA tax but retain the cap on benefits. They will also tweak the fulll retirement age some more.

I didn't vote since this is my best guess too!