Estimating Future Dividends / Dividend Growth Rate

[Snidely Whiplash]

I’m trying to estimate future dividend payments of my primarily individual blue-chip stock portfolio. I currently hold JPM, WFC, V, MA, PM, MO, RTN, LMT, PEP, KHC, BP, XOM, JNJ, UNP, HON, and VFIAX in relatively equal amounts. I’m trying to determine if it’s easonable to expect dividends to increase (on average) at 7% per year / double over a 10 year period. I’ve tried back-testing and looking at dividends of my positions 10 years ago and it seems 7% growth is a reasonable expectation but I’m not sure if the last 10 years are the norm or an anomaly.

Any thoughts or suggestions as to where / how I could better research this?

 

[target2019]

Sent you a PM about this.
7% does seem very reasonable.

 

[ERD50]

Try plugging in your stocks here:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...bol2=VBMFX&allocation2_2=100&allocation2_3=30

then hit the link button to share so we can analyze it. You should be able to go back pretty far in time.

-ERD50

 

[Snidely Whiplash]

Try plugging in your stocks here:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...bol2=VBMFX&allocation2_2=100&allocation2_3=30

then hit the link button to share so we can analyze it. You should be able to go back pretty far in time.

-ERD50

ERD50,

I’m dumbfounded. Thank you for the link to that site. I can’t believe I haven’t come across that before now. Very helpful. I’ll work on that in the next few days.

 

[ERD50]

ERD50,

I’m dumbfounded. Thank you for the link to that site. I can’t believe I haven’t come across that before now. Very helpful. I’ll work on that in the next few days.

It is a very nice tool, and I learned about it here on this forum (though I forget who posted the link).

Previously, I had been using this tool for total return, as most charts only provide NAV. I might have learned about it here as well, I don't recall:

PerfCharts | Free Charts | StockCharts.com

The stockcharts tool makes it easy to look at various start-stop dates dynamically with the 'scrub bar', and the portfoliobacktest tool is great for including regular credit/debits to simulate accumulation and draw-down phases. I keep them both bookmarked.

-ERD50