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-   -   I vote to call it a Bear Market! (https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/i-vote-to-call-it-a-bear-market-95345.html)

JoeWras 12-27-2018 03:27 PM

My neck is sore from watching the wild swings today. Down 600 intraday and closing up 250. Madness. I don't generally watch, but peaked in at things during breaks from working on my garden.

cyber888 12-27-2018 03:39 PM

I vote to call it a Bear Market!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeWras (Post 2163498)
My neck is sore from watching the wild swings today. Down 600 intraday and closing up 250. Madness. I don't generally watch, but peaked in at things during breaks from working on my garden.



Lol. I saw that .. down 600 red .. then last 15-30 minutes went 200+ green .. low volume trades push it to green. Was that the Plunge Protection Team at work ?[emoji12]

Scrapr 12-27-2018 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeWras (Post 2163498)
My neck is sore from watching the wild swings today. Down 600 intraday and closing up 250. Madness. I don't generally watch, but peaked in at things during breaks from working on my garden.

Roll on Bull market roll on :dance:;D

NW-Bound 12-27-2018 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeWras (Post 2163498)
My neck is sore from watching the wild swings today. Down 600 intraday and closing up 250. Madness. I don't generally watch, but peaked in at things during breaks from working on my garden.

I watched the market a bit in the morning, wrote 3 out-of-the-money covered calls on some stocks that were green while the market was red. Then, got tired of seeing everything going down, so went out to the backyard to do some work.

Needed to run to Home Depot for some "stuff". Stopped by my laptop to check on the market about 1/2 hour before close. Nice!

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyber888 (Post 2163503)
Lol. I saw that .. down 600 red .. then last 15-30 minutes went 200+ green .. low volume trades push it to green. Was that the Plunge Protection Team at work ?[emoji12]

The market declined until 1.5 hrs before close, then it started to turn around.

Total volume of the day was indeed lower than the daily average, but most of the trades were during the last hour and trading stayed heavy until close.

ShokWaveRider 12-27-2018 04:46 PM

The "Day" traders are taking advantage of the swings.

NW-Bound 12-27-2018 05:03 PM

Well, I do not care who is buying, as long as there's somebody buying, and buys a lot. :)

Dtail 12-27-2018 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider (Post 2163538)
The "Day" traders are taking advantage of the swings.

The Wall Street hedge fund firms who have "Program trading" algorithms set up, are probably cleaning up.

TravelinFamilyMan 12-28-2018 09:53 PM

-1. Not yet!!!

Scarab 12-29-2018 07:47 AM

-1 Reminds me of when the wife waits for a Kohl's sale, and she has a handful of % off stackable coupons, and Kohl's cash. Buying along the way.

VanWinkle 12-29-2018 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scarab (Post 2164268)
-1 Reminds me of when the wife waits for a Kohl's sale, and she has a handful of % off stackable coupons, and Kohl's cash. Buying along the way.

That Kohl's cash has cost us more money than it ever saved. ;D

REWahoo 12-29-2018 07:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanWinkle (Post 2164272)
That Kohl's cash has cost us more money than it ever saved. ;D

Khol's Cash = thinly disguised Crack Cocaine

VanWinkle 12-29-2018 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo (Post 2164276)
Khol's Cash = thinly disguised Crack Cocaine

:laugh:

Scarab 12-29-2018 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanWinkle (Post 2164272)
That Kohl's cash has cost us more money than it ever saved. ;D


LOL!!

NW-Bound 12-29-2018 09:13 AM

I am proud of my wife. She went in, found something that she liked and her receipt showed excess of $1 or $2 above that free cash.

I was there with her, and it made me feel guilty. But I think they figure it out, and I have not seen a coupon in the mail recently.

Closet_Gamer 12-29-2018 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 (Post 2163482)
Just looking at indexes, not counting dividends, the market had finally recovered in Oct 2007, just in time for the next bear!

But if you count in dividends, that shortens it. But when you take into account inflation, its drain is worse than the gains from dividends. They very roughly cancel each other out. Accounting for inflation and dividends the 2000 bear market never recovered and continued into the 2007 bear market, taking another 5 years or more to completely recover.

A few years back, I read an article that said the Fed's various QE policies to drive down rates essentially amounted to price fixing the most important financial assets on the planet -- US Treasury bonds -- because virtually everything else finds its value as a risk premium relative to that risk-free return.

The fed used its limitless balance sheet to wrestle control away from the market on the price of treasuries and thereby removed from the market a very important pricing mechanism for everything else. Obviously, the fed always nudges these things via its rate actions, but QE was an entirely different beast.

I found that to be an interesting way of looking at it.

If you concur that's what happened, we should be prepared for a very out-of-the-ordinary market (up/down) as the Fed unwinds QE and allows the market to once again have more of a voice in setting the price of Treasuries and other assets. It took a decade (perhaps 2 decades to Audrey's point) in order to get here. The odds that this gets unwound in 36 months is shockingly low.

El Magnifico Loco 12-29-2018 09:42 AM

Agreed. I too doubt the Fed will unwind their balance sheet anytime soon. As soon as there is a hint of an economic slowdown, I believe they will stop and, depending upon the slowdown's severity, increase their holdings again.

Does anyone know how the US Fed's holdings compare to the ECB's, particularly as a % of GDP?

audreyh1 12-29-2018 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Closet_Gamer (Post 2164322)
A few years back, I read an article that said the Fed's various QE policies to drive down rates essentially amounted to price fixing the most important financial assets on the planet -- US Treasury bonds -- because virtually everything else finds its value as a risk premium relative to that risk-free return.

The fed used its limitless balance sheet to wrestle control away from the market on the price of treasuries and thereby removed from the market a very important pricing mechanism for everything else. Obviously, the fed always nudges these things via its rate actions, but QE was an entirely different beast.

I found that to be an interesting way of looking at it.

If you concur that's what happened, we should be prepared for a very out-of-the-ordinary market (up/down) as the Fed unwinds QE and allows the market to once again have more of a voice in setting the price of Treasuries and other assets. It took a decade (perhaps 2 decades to Audrey's point) in order to get here. The odds that this gets unwound in 36 months is shockingly low.

Well the QE thatís unwinding now was started in 2013, so it really hasnít been that long. Plus the asset inflation that happened as a result also occurred in 2013 onwards. Unwind a few years gains and/or go sideways for a few years and we are probably back on track. Having interest rates at higher levels is a big part forcing return to less inflated asset levels.

FinancialDave 12-29-2018 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 2160358)
I changed my avatar when I saw this thread. Maybe this is a "Teddy Bear Market"? ;D At least, so far. I agree with others that it's probably not a full fledged Bear Market quite yet.

TBH I expect it to get much worse before long, but then what do I know about it?
(answer: absolutely nothing).

I agree

jimbee 12-29-2018 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (Post 2162152)
:eek: Good gosh! I had no idea until reading your post. Yes, I think it's gone from a Teddy bear market to a bear market by now.


This bear may be more applicable than a Teddy bear. ;)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9qv8RSreIM

SecondCor521 12-29-2018 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Magnifico Loco (Post 2164329)
Agreed. I too doubt the Fed will unwind their balance sheet anytime soon. As soon as there is a hint of an economic slowdown, I believe they will stop and, depending upon the slowdown's severity, increase their holdings again.

Does anyone know how the US Fed's holdings compare to the ECB's, particularly as a % of GDP?

US Fed balance sheet is basically $4T and falling on a GDP of $19.8T. ECB balance sheet is euro4.5T and rising on euro16.4T of GDP.

That's on a quick couple of google searches, so the recency and quality of the data points may vary.


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