Preparing for changes

[imoldernu]

Without going into details, or politics... We have made a number of short term changes in plans, based on the government shutdown, even due to the parts of the government that will return to "normal" when it is over.
Wondering how much the changes might affect things like travel, IRS interactions, processing of legal actions, and the recovery time for societal support operations.
Thusfar, there seems to be little press involvement in forecasting effect on the economy.

Not looking for trouble, but know that there will be long term changes, and trying to stay prepared.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Nothing has changed for us.

 

[aja8888]

I really haven't noticed anything that would indicate the government is shut down. Of course, we live in Texas, so maybe that is why there is no apparent impact.

 

[njhowie]

I've read a few articles and seen a few video clips. As it drags on, there will be more and more impact.

TSA folks are beginning to call in sick in increasing numbers leaving airports short of staff. It's expected as the shutdown drags on, the numbers calling in sick will continue increasing. It was emphasized that this is not an organized strike, but simply individuals calling in sick - many of whom are looking for alternate work to generate income which they are not receiving. This will affect all travelers and could compromise security. I don't agree with TSA folks not getting paid - every airline passenger is paying TSA fees on each ticket. Safety/security should not be compromised when the services are being directly funded by travelers. Similar situation with air-traffic controllers.

https://www.wcpo.com/news/national/government-shutdown-air-traffic-controllers

National parks have stayed open, but with skeleton crews. They highlighted folks who died in the parks (not that it doesn't always happen), and that because staff is short, they have not been able to get to those in need as quickly as they could have at normal staffing levels. I was listening to NPR a couple days ago and they had a story that at one of the parks which has a hotel and other vacation service providers within it, the hotel and other vendors/merchants have been paying government workers to continue working to keep the park open. They say they're prepared to continue funding until the end of this month but not beyond.

Some folks who are in the process of closing on a home purchase are being delayed. Apparently there's information required from HUD for some before closing can happen and the folks who handle it are not working or only have a small staff and are unable to keep up.

Within DC, garbage is piling up, national museums and parks are closed.

 

[street]

No changes for me. I'm just going to plug along and go with the flow.

 

[joeea]

Wondering how much the changes might affect things like travel, IRS interactions, processing of legal actions, and the recovery time for societal support operations.

Longer lines, slower responses, less help.

 

[harllee]

DS is an administrator in the Federal Court system. She says the federal court system has enough funds to continue to for another week or 2 and after that the federal court system will start shutting down. She is considered essential so she has to continue to work without getting paid. There could be substantial consequences if the federal court system is shut down along time. I am not sure if the U.S. Supreme Court will shut down but if the lower courts shut down the Supreme Court will not have cases to hear. I am also not sure what will happen to federal criminal cases.

 

[Spock]

While the government is closed...
Can somebody just start a new one

 

[Ronstar]

I don’t foresee any government shutdown issues that would cause me any grief. Went through tsa recently with only a normal delay.

 

[COcheesehead]

I've read a few articles and seen a few video clips. As it drags on, there will be more and more impact.

TSA folks are beginning to call in sick in increasing numbers leaving airports short of staff. It's expected as the shutdown drags on, the numbers calling in sick will continue increasing. It was emphasized that this is not an organized strike, but simply individuals calling in sick - many of whom are looking for alternate work to generate income which they are not receiving. This will affect all travelers and could compromise security. I don't agree with TSA folks not getting paid - every airline passenger is paying TSA fees on each ticket. Safety/security should not be compromised when the services are being directly funded by travelers. Similar situation with air-traffic controllers.

https://www.wcpo.com/news/national/government-shutdown-air-traffic-controllers

National parks have stayed open, but with skeleton crews. They highlighted folks who died in the parks (not that it doesn't always happen), and that because staff is short, they have not been able to get to those in need as quickly as they could have at normal staffing levels. I was listening to NPR a couple days ago and they had a story that at one of the parks which has a hotel and other vacation service providers within it, the hotel and other vendors/merchants have been paying government workers to continue working to keep the park open. They say they're prepared to continue funding until the end of this month but not beyond.

Some folks who are in the process of closing on a home purchase are being delayed. Apparently there's information required from HUD for some before closing can happen and the folks who handle it are not working or only have a small staff and are unable to keep up.

Within DC, garbage is piling up, national museums and parks are closed.

The National Parks by us are all closed. No trash pick up, no bathrooms, no visitor center, no concessions. You can walk in, but you’re on your own.

 

[njhowie]

The NP by us are all closed.

Here's a few of the NPR stories:
https://www.npr.org/2018/12/28/6807...ring-the-shutdown-their-bathrooms-not-so-much
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/02/681535260/how-the-government-shutdown-is-affecting-national-parks
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/04/6819...p-roads-groomed-bathrooms-cleaned-in-yellowst

 

[Dtail]

No direct effect for us, just adds to the daily news, but do feel bad for the ones who will have money issues.

 

[Aerides]

I hasn't impact me personally, yet, nor do I expect any long term changes that anyone here should have to plan for. I have a trip coming in february that I'm not changing unless I have to, but other than that...No.

If this goes past January, and thing like....some houses can't sell (Flood policies stopped/HUD), tax refunds delayed, TSA impacts get bigger... would this delay folks needing to start medicare or SS (i don't know, haven't researched)... But I'd be surprised if it goes that long.

Then again, I've had a lot of surprises from the gov this past few years.

 

[imoldernu]

For most of the members, probably no serious immediate problems, as those with enough money and a dollar cushion, will outlast the shutdown. Not so for many considering the average income as shown here. (Note HH income.)

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/how-much-americans-earn-at-every-age.html

While Federal workers may well be recompensed, many workers who are either contractors or dependent on Federal operations, will be left without pay due to trickle down layoffs. At the very least late income tax refunds will cause some replanning.

You might want to check City-Data for comparable figures for your town. Peru, Il is a nice 10,000 population middle America town.

HH inc. $51,483
Per capita inc. $28,136
Median house value $116,027
Mean house value $137,399
Crime index 129.9 US Avg. 280.5

Much of the support for the less fortunate is provided by volunteers, but subsidized by government programs that have or will lose funding. If the Department of Agriculture follows past precedent, the SNAP program will suffer, and farmers, who are a large part of our local economy will have uncertainties for the coming year year. Many of the local businesses are directly related to USDA monies.

So, how does that affect jeanie and me? Not so much directly, or today, but definitely in terms of the sure loss of local merchants, restaurants and declining housing value. Depends how long the shutdown lasts. When a whole town suffers loss, it affects everyone.

Go back and look at the income figures and compare them to your town. Easier to set aside money, when the HH income is $70 to $100K.

 

[USGrant1962]

No changes here, but a late tax refund would be unfortunate. I would guess the shutdown will be resolved soon after the SOTU Address, but if not the indirect effects are very modest in the overall economy.

 

[lemming]

If you are a landlord it could start to affect you. Contractors and feds are short on pay.
And why does it have to affect me personally to be important. I don't have any idea what most folks do but I believe they are working hard(so I don't have to) LoL
Tax season was going to be bad enough but with the delay people are going to be even more on edge. Major purchases like cars, homes, electronics,small business purchases will be delayed or downsized. Food banks will be overrun and underfunded. Don't want til end of year to give locally.
I should do my part and go out to dinner and tip well. I expect restaurants may not be busy. They might be with everyone using credit cards. May be a delayed pain.

 

[socca]

IRS Publication 535 seems to only be available in draft form according to google (latest: December 19, 2018). Anyone who hopes to take the new 20% QBI deduction will need the final version of this publication, especially those of us who can't use the "Simplified Worksheet".

TurboTax Deluxe for Mac support for QBI is currently rather poor: the Intuit engineers have a good user interface infrastructure in place, but many details aren't implemented (Schedule C pass-thru: yes; Partnership pass-thru: no; S-Corp pass-thru: no; Expanded worksheet: no). This is understandable, considering that the final QBI deduction guidelines aren't ready.

As the IRS shutdown drags on, I gotta feel sorry for the software engineers who are developing 2018 tax prep software (especially the expensive high-end software packages used by professional tax preparers, who expect the software to be complete and accurate). Some frantic all-nighters are probably in store for those lucky software engineers if/when the guidelines are finalized.

I normally like to get all of my taxes done by April 15th so I can enjoy the rest of the year. However, this year (for the first time ever) I might have to apply for an extension to file - not pleasant. However, no need to panic yet.

 

[Teacher Terry]

I definitely feel sorry for all the workers that are suffering. It will hurt many if it continues.

 

[JDARNELL]

DS is interviewing for Govt Intern jobs and several of the interviews are delayed. I figure by the time this is resolved the certs will be invalid and HR will make the hiring managers readvertise LOL.

 

[LOL!]

I went to several National Parks back in November including some pretty sketchy places where you could die. Park employees are not hanging around during non-shutdown times to prevent one from doing stupid things and killing themselves.

The folks who died during the shutdown would have died without the shutdown based on what I read. Even the bodies were recovered in a timely manner, but the deaths were not "reported" because of the shutdown. My thought was, "Big whoop." I think the news media was upset that they didn't get a death story earlier, that's all.

I am dismayed that some of the nicest places have been trashed. I don't understand much of human behavior. But some places that i visited were trashed back in November without a shutdown.

 

[pb4uski]

I would love to have us adopt something similar to Israel.... if the Knesset doesn't pass a budget before it is due then the Knesset is disolved and new elections are held. If Congress doesn't pass a budget within 3 months of the start of the fiscal year then Congress is disolved and new elections are held.

Given our congresscritters insatiable thirst for self-interest, do you think that we would ever have a government shutdown if we had something like that in place?

If the Budget Law is not passed by the Knesset within three months of the start of the fiscal year, this is tantamount to the Knesset deciding to dissolve itself (article 36 of the Basic Law: The Knesset). In such a case, elections must be held within 90 days of the determining date. Exceptions to this are if negotiations took place to form a government concurrent with the passage of the Budget Law, if a law was passed dissolving the Knesset, or if elections were held after the date for submitting the budget. In these cases, the operative date will be 45 days from the formation of a new government, or three months from the start of the fiscal year—whichever is later.

This provision is intended to prevent a situation in which a Knesset that is not fulfilling its role continues to serve. The passage of the Budget Law is seen as approval of the government’s plan of action for the coming year; thus failure to pass this law has practical implications and serves as a test of the ability of the Knesset and the government to act in the best interests of the public. If they have failed, and did not demonstrate the responsibility required of elected representatives, new elections must be held. This is a further example of how the parliamentary system increases the responsibility of elected representatives toward the public.

 

[USGrant1962]

I would love to have us adopt something similar to Israel.... if the Knesset doesn't pass a budget before it is due then the Knesset is disolved and new elections are held. If Congress doesn't pass a budget within 3 months of the start of the fiscal year then Congress is disolved and new elections are held.

Given our congresscritters insatiable thirst for self-interest, do you think that we would ever have a government shutdown if we had something like that in place?

I like it, but for the fact the the Knesset is a Parliamentary system that lacks the distinctive checks and balances that our Federal Republic holds dear.

It is unfortunate that a couple of decades ago our congresscritters figured out that failing to do their constitutional duty to pass annual budgets that the President would sign was a political tool.

 

[joeea]

I would guess the shutdown will be resolved soon after the SOTU Address

Why? What changes after January 29th?

 

[joeea]

I would love to have us adopt something similar to Israel.... if the Knesset doesn't pass a budget before it is due then the Knesset is disolved and new elections are held. If Congress doesn't pass a budget within 3 months of the start of the fiscal year then Congress is disolved and new elections are held.

In Israel does the executive branch have veto power? How is the chief executive punished in the no-budget scenario?

 

[joeea]

It is unfortunate that a couple of decades ago our congresscritters figured out that failing to do their constitutional duty to pass annual budgets that the President would sign was a political tool.

There is no constitutional duty to pass a budget that the President would sign.

All branches of the government are co-equal in the US. Congress is not required to read the mind of the President before deciding on laws.