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Forum: FIRE and Money Yesterday, 09:44 PM
Replies: 62
Views: 2,018
Posted By USGrant1962
-12.7% at 57/43 (now about 50/50). Thanks for...

-12.7% at 57/43 (now about 50/50). Thanks for asking, made me do the math and not as bad as I thought.
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area Yesterday, 08:17 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 8,562
Posted By USGrant1962
People just don't retain lessons like this and...

People just don't retain lessons like this and THIS is probably not as bad as it is portrayed in the media (they need clicks) and people will realize that when it is over and they get their jobs...
Forum: FIRE and Money Yesterday, 07:47 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 350
Posted By USGrant1962
Yes, I'm a bigger fan of the bond tent than I was...

Yes, I'm a bigger fan of the bond tent than I was when I retired in 2017.
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area Yesterday, 07:45 PM
Replies: 205
Views: 8,463
Posted By USGrant1962
+1 Lots of rumor- fear- and meme-mongering...

+1

Lots of rumor- fear- and meme-mongering going on.
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area Yesterday, 07:37 PM
Replies: 830
Views: 29,436
Posted By USGrant1962
Overblown or serious? As my dive buddy with MS...

Overblown or serious? As my dive buddy with MS likes to say, embrace the healing power of AND.
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area Yesterday, 02:05 PM
Replies: 184
Views: 5,268
Posted By USGrant1962
Interesting, but you said "send 98% of all masks...

Interesting, but you said "send 98% of all masks they make to the gov't".
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area Yesterday, 01:44 PM
Replies: 205
Views: 8,463
Posted By USGrant1962
Thank you. People here and in the press are...

Thank you. People here and in the press are using terms very loosely. Shelter-in-place =/= social distancing =/= quarantine =/= self isolation for infected/vulnerable. These are different things....
Forum: Other topics Yesterday, 11:32 AM
Replies: 71
Views: 1,642
Posted By USGrant1962
About 7% of the U.S. population is non-citizens. ...

About 7% of the U.S. population is non-citizens. So one could argue that 7% of 435 Members of Congress, or about 30 full-time Member equivalents (FMEs) represent citizens of foreign countries.
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area Yesterday, 11:26 AM
Replies: 184
Views: 5,268
Posted By USGrant1962
Why would you want the government in between the...

Why would you want the government in between the manufacturers and the health care providers?
Forum: Other topics Yesterday, 10:58 AM
Replies: 71
Views: 1,642
Posted By USGrant1962
When I did it online it said something like you...

When I did it online it said something like you may get more letters, ignore them.
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area Yesterday, 10:56 AM
Replies: 205
Views: 8,463
Posted By USGrant1962
Where did you see this commercial? Because AFAIK...

Where did you see this commercial? Because AFAIK CDC is not recommending shelter in place for anyone except older and at-risk people, anyone feeling sick, and anyone with a positive COVID-19 result...
Forum: Stock Picking and Market Strategy Yesterday, 07:45 AM
Replies: 65
Views: 4,215
Posted By USGrant1962
It doesn't mean anything. It is financial porn,...

It doesn't mean anything. It is financial porn, not that there's anything wrong with that!
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area 03-27-2020, 01:37 PM
Replies: 25
Views: 470
Posted By USGrant1962
An analysis I saw a couple of days ago suggested...

An analysis I saw a couple of days ago suggested a V recovery because this is a service-economy-led recession. It argued that it is much faster to put servers, cooks, hair stylists, fitness...
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area 03-27-2020, 11:04 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 2,029
Posted By USGrant1962
I linked this analysis by the Tax Foundation in...

I linked this analysis by the Tax Foundation in another thread - it answers a lot of the questions coming up here. It covers the whole act, not just this payment, which BTW is called a Recovery...
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area 03-26-2020, 09:01 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 1,114
Posted By USGrant1962
Yes, they are paying $15/hour on top of what you...

Yes, they are paying $15/hour on top of what you would have received under normal unemployment rules. Wonder where that number came from?

I'm not opposed to enhanced unemployment for...
Forum: FIRE and Money 03-26-2020, 08:54 PM
Replies: 168
Views: 6,749
Posted By USGrant1962
I read further in the Tax Foundation article and...

I read further in the Tax Foundation article and it answers a bunch of questions that have been asked here (bolding mine):


...
Forum: FIRE and Money 03-26-2020, 08:45 PM
Replies: 168
Views: 6,749
Posted By USGrant1962
I'm not sure why you say that. It is a tax...

I'm not sure why you say that. It is a tax credit, not an early refund. The Tax Foundation, who is really good at analyzing these things says:
Forum: FIRE and Money 03-26-2020, 08:12 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,537
Posted By USGrant1962
This article suggests that the run up may be...

This article suggests that the run up may be driven by rebalancing in pension funds and balanced mutual funds. Also mentions short covering. It suggests this driver will continue over the next...
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area 03-26-2020, 08:03 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 1,114
Posted By USGrant1962
The moral hazard was created by Congress, so IMO...

The moral hazard was created by Congress, so IMO not really your issue. I'm not a fan of the way they enhanced unemployment insurance, but I believe it was Mnuchin who said it was the simplest way...
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area 03-26-2020, 07:45 PM
Replies: 95
Views: 3,006
Posted By USGrant1962
Our brand new next door neighbors arrived in...

Our brand new next door neighbors arrived in Maryland today finishing a 6-day trip from Oregon. They close Monday and the Realtor brought them to the house for the family to see it, so I said hi to...
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area 03-26-2020, 01:54 PM
Replies: 262
Views: 10,400
Posted By USGrant1962
There was never a single strategy - it was always...

There was never a single strategy - it was always "we'll evaluate".
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area 03-26-2020, 01:52 PM
Replies: 123
Views: 3,978
Posted By USGrant1962
Well the Imperial College of London just debunked...

Well the Imperial College of London just debunked their own report that many credit/blame for shifting to shutdown. Now instead of 1.1-1.2 million deaths in the U.S. with social distancing...
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area 03-26-2020, 10:59 AM
Replies: 262
Views: 10,400
Posted By USGrant1962
Related, Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College of...

Related, Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College of London COVID-19 response team (and source of 2.2 million Americans are going to die if we do nothing with 1.1 if we shut everything down), just...
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area 03-26-2020, 07:13 AM
Replies: 830
Views: 29,436
Posted By USGrant1962
I hadn't really thought about it but I wonder why...

I hadn't really thought about it but I wonder why the estimates were "only" ~2 million. NYC alone has over 8 million people, and I would guess at least half of them can't work.
Forum: COVID-19 | Containment Area 03-25-2020, 09:37 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 787
Posted By USGrant1962
To be clear, "detectable" does not mean...

To be clear, "detectable" does not mean contagious. Like every communicable disease it takes a reasonable dose to get infected. Every credible source says that spread is mainly person-to-person. ...
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