You're lucky you are able to retire early because....

[ChrisC]

Luck has nothing to do with it.

“…luck plays a large role in every story of success; it is almost always easy to identify a small change in the story that would have turned a remarkable achievement into a mediocre outcome.”

Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow

I'm struck by how we tend to believe that "luck has nothing to do with it." It's comforting to think that we are self-made success stories. But even Michael Jordan or Bill Gates would say that a measure of their success involved luck!

 

[Bestwifeever]

I feel luck, both good and bad, is a huge component of achievement or lack of--at least that is true in my life, and if it's not in yours, all I can say is, "good luck with that"!

 

[grasshopper]

Not luck, but loving kindness has attracted much of the blessings in my life.

Enjoy the holidays with friends and loved ones.

grasshopper.

 

[braumeister]

I don't think anyone has mentioned this, but I had an interesting conversation with a couple of friends (both younger than I am) recently.

The point I took away from the conversation was that neither of them had ever sat down and done the math. We know that innumeracy is rife in this country, but this is fairly basic math, after all.

Their position was that they would need far more than they would actually need, even assuming full retirement age Social Security benefits. The concept of earning on their nest egg while spending it at the same time was just too complicated for them to contemplate.

I wonder if this isn't the reason many people won't consider early retirement.

 

[52andout]

I'd just like to say that everyone is welcome on this site whether they retired at 30 or are still working at 90.

Happy Holidays

at the very least by reading this board and with good planning, even if you can't retire early you will be far better prepared to have the quality of life you want. Not everyone is willing to give up big boats etc. and that is OK. It is being aware that is the key and not end up destitute at age 75.

 

[Spanky]

Not everyone is willing to give up big boats etc. and that is OK.

We do not have too many things to give up since we have been living a very modest life style.

 

[pletal]

I think the lucky thing is just a way of assuring themselves that their poor choices aren't the reason they can't retire. It's just bad luck.

Bad luck be damned. Family including sibling and brother in laws on way over on this Christmas day. All of them will have to work till they die. I'll be done at fifty. Got lucky to work seventy plus hours a week for over two decades. Only one kid, only one marriage. Statement about luck is real covering up someone being jealous. Family, if not FI or planning on ER are the worst. Anyone else experience this? How you dealing with it? I'm feeling guilty, should I just write them all checks?

 

[ziggy29]

Luck has nothing to do with it.

This is just as wrong, IMO, as a belief in "predestination" which justifies one's own bad situation by claiming they have no power to change it. I think people tend to use this belief to justify their dismiss all other less successful folks as unworthy of our charity or safety net. (Not you necessarily, but I see a lot of this out there. The idea seems to be that if they are struggling, it's entirely their own fault for making stupid, reckless and/or irresponsible decisions and that is 100% of the reason for their struggles, and thus they deserve none of our sympathy or financial assistance. I've seen way too many counterexamples to jump on this bandwagon.)

 

[Midpack]

This is just as wrong, IMO, as a belief in "predestination" which justifies one's own bad situation by claiming they have no power to change it. I think this belief is heavily correlated with the "I got mine, now screw the rest of you" that seems to be increasingly prevalent in a social and political environment which seems determined to pit one class of ordinary people against another.

+1

Even those who planned and worked hard to reach FI and/of RE, may not have been able to do so had they been born in many other countries, or simply many other families. And market conditions in the next 30-40 years may not be as favorable as the 30-40 we've just been through, it may be considerably more difficult for the generations that follow this community.

Luck has played a part for all of us whether we can admit it or not...just not entirely as some casual observers may believe, like the OP example may suggest.

 

[Milkman]

I have heard the "luck" comment as well. My reply is that I was "lucky" enough to have been divorced twice, widowed once, and fired three times in my adult life. Despite this "luck," I have still managed to accumulate what I have. Life happens, and luck or happiness is a choice.
Milkman

 

[growing_older]

I think I am on track to RE, at least slightly earlier than many. But I am going to be way later than I planned. Luck plays a big part of it, both as a helping and hindering. Unlucky to have promised pension benefits unpromised later. Unlucky to have taken my shots at corporate stock options that didn't turn out to be as valuable as others - in several cases worthless. It would be unrealistic to presume I could have known these outcomes in advance. The best I might have hoped for was to at least consider the possibility of unfortunate outcomes and have a backup plan. Unlucky to be divorced, which is too complicated, but very expensive. OTOH, lucky to be able to make good use of tax advantaged savings in IRA and 401k. I actually started saving because I vaguely didn't want to waste a rare tax benefit - it wasn't until some years later I figured out that that early start was helping me get to FIRE. Lucky to discover LBYM and asset allocation that let me save money and stay invested.

It can be tempting sometimes to say it was good decisions and efforts that helped me, but that was at most a very small part of it for me.

 

[52andout]

We do not have too many things to give up since we have been living a very modest life style.

I thought about my post as we were traveling today to family to celebrate, and realized it was quite insensitive. Unfortunately many today will have no pension, and are likely to have less of a social security benefit. Add that to not getting raises, being underemployed or getting downsized, which is happening with increasing frequency.

Indeed tough times are ahead for many, so perhaps what I should have said that what you learn here about living below your means, not keeping up with the Joneses and establishing social networks will be helpful even if you cannot retire early to at least have a much better quality of life when you are able to retire.

 

[jerome len]

Yes, many times we make our luck. I too peddled newspapers, saved money, took financial risks and could retire but haven't.......for many reasons.

You are lucky, you could have faced illness, loss of a job, financial need of a parent or child that couldn't be turned away......or any number of other challenges that others have had to face that delayed retirement.

Enjoy your luck and enjoy your friends that tell you you are lucky. they mean no harm, they probably are happy for you. And, smile and be happy for yourself.

Me? I'm lucky that I have my health, my family and my net worth. Those three items are a result of my hard work and, yes, some very good luck. I only wish the same for everyone on this forum. Happy New Year to all.

 

[Nemo2]

On one hand I consider myself lucky because I grabbed the opportunity to go to Saudi, stayed until the contract ran out, and quit w*rking at age 46.

On the other hand I think of those, in the company I worked for, who turned down the chance to go, didn't stay long enough/terminated early, or pissed away the money they made while they were there.

So maybe it wasn't all luck.

 

[ChrisC]

So maybe it wasn't all luck.

Yeah but as you acknowledge the "opportunity" itself might have been good fortune or good luck.

I don't know how many times in my life I've benefitted from good luck (or how others I've known drawn "bad luck" or misfortune). My greatest piece of "luck" was finding love and marrying my soulmate of 35 years. It does not detract from any of my accomplishments or achievements to say that I've had good fortune in life and that I might be able to retire earlier than most partly as a result of this good fortune. I think that some want to believe that their ability to retire early or achieve some financial independence is based soley on "skill" or wise financial planning (and the corollary of that being that those who aren't able to retire early or achieve financial planning are short sighted, ill-prepared planners).

It appears nonsense to me to believe that good or bad luck is not a factor in our lives! Of course, the more prudent one is in financial planning the more likely it would be for that person to retire early than ill-prepared people. But one little element of good or bad fortune could tip things one way or the other. Some of this might be "dumb luck" or real "bad luck" and some of it might be given "lucky breaks" or opportunities that one is able to seize and take advantage.

Like you, I feel very lucky to arrive at my current level in life.

 

[Nemo2]

Some of this might be "dumb luck" or real "bad luck" and some of it might be given "lucky breaks" or opportunities that one is able to seize and take advantage.

Like you, I feel very lucky to arrive at my current level in life.

Yes, I believe one has to be astute enough to recognize "good luck" when it presents itself.......otherwise one can end up like the guy in the old joke, sitting on the roof in a flood and turning away numerous offers of assistance because "God will take care of me"......until finally a voice comes out of the sky and says "I've sent you a canoe, a boat and a helicopter...what more do you want?"

 

[ShortInSeattle]

My favorite definition of "luck" is this one:

Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.

I think you nailed it. On the one hand, DH and I have worked damn hard to get on track for ER. We started saving when our friends were buying new cars and toys. We spend our free time budgeting and planning. We chose to live below our means and work in higher paying, higher stress jobs. We choose to share a car and to clip coupons.

There has been opportunity too. We were lucky to find high paying jobs we like. We were lucky to avoid layoffs the last few years. We were lucky that we sold our house before the market tanked.

If people want to call me lucky that is ok. I feel pretty lucky.

SiS

 

[Hamlet]

I've had good luck and made sound decisions along the way.

I have one friend that made all the same sound decisions, but had his appendix burst after being sent home from the ER because they misdiagnosed his abdominal pain (apparently this is fairly common). He came very close to dying, and ended up needing a kidney transplant.

Needless to say, that has set him back a bit. He had insurance when it happened, but a job loss during the tech crash left him without insurance after his Cobra ran out.

He lived off of savings for a long time, and eventually found new work. He's married now, and has health care through his wife.

So his good decisions got him through a bad patch, but there is no way he will be retiring early.

I would say that our different outcomes are mostly due to luck.

If he had made just average decisions before and after his illness, he could easily have ended up destitute.

 

[drcha]

I've had several conversations with my youngest brother, the first of us sibs to retire, that are the reverse of this issue. He often says, "We have been very fortunate." I tell him: no way. He and his wife each worked two jobs for years; at some times, each of them had 3 jobs. So he retired at 50, his wife at 42. Fortunate? No. They worked very hard for it, and they deserve it.

 

[Brdofpray]

I think the lucky thing is just a way of assuring themselves that their poor choices aren't the reason they can't retire. It's just bad luck.

+1

 

[haha]

They worked very hard for it, and they deserve it.

Maybe so, but the world is full of deserving people who will likely never get a day off, let alone be able to retire. Years ago I got to talking with a chambermaid in a pension where I was staying. She was in her early 40s, had started full time work when she was 15, and had never yet had a day off. And she considerd that she was one of the lucky ones; she had a job. Plenty others were more or less starving.

Ha

 

[obgyn65]

Well put, Ha. One day I may post pictures of children in third world countries I have seen eating grass for some of us to realize how lucky we are. We are lucky indeed to live in such a prosperous part of the world.

Maybe so, but the world is full of deserving people who will likely never get a day off, let alone be able to retire. (...) And she considerd that she was one of the lucky ones; she had a job. Plenty others were more or less starving.

 

[Brett_Cameron]

I consider myself lucky by any standard. I am also grateful.

 

[Finance Dave]

We hear this a lot also...mainly from younger people. We hear how "lucky" we are that we can drive nice cars, take vacations to Germany, go out to dinner on occasion at steakhouses, buy a fine bottle of wine sometimes, and attend comedy shows and concert-type events. I realize we spend more than most...but we also make a lot more...and we save nearly 35% of our gross income annually...so we don't mind doing so.

What they fail to realize is that I attended college for 11 years (yes, I did all my schooling at nights while working full-time, letting my company reimburse me for an undergrad engineering degree and an MBA...resulting in zero student loans).

Sometimes people look at the result, and ignore the process...very sad indeed.

We're now in our early '50s and within a "few years" of being able to never earn another dollar again (although I'll probably still do something to stay engaged).

If you note my current avatar, you'll learn the way I think. Right now I'm renovating rental house #2. Each day, after my 8-5 day at a "regular" job...I drive straight to the rental, change into work clothes, and proceed with plumbing, electrical, gutter fixes, cabinet re-staining, pulling up old carpet, fixing drywall repairs, changing light fixtures, installing ceramic tile floors, and a myriad other things...until about 10:30 pm. Then I go home and sleep, to repeat again the next day.

It takes me anywhere from 6-10 weeks of this to "turn around" a given house....so this is not an everlasting schedule...but it sure is tough for that time. But 2-3 years from now, when the big repairs are done and we have 4-5 properties pushing $30k/year into our bank account...those youngsters will still be wondering how we can afford to do all these things. I just smile and tell them I'm "lucky".

 

[misty57]

I guess we WERE lucky. At age 24, DH's boss at his MegaCorp sat him down for a fatherly chat about the company's profit sharing plan (which later was converted to a 401K). DH had been with the company for a year and had become eligible to contribute.

We listened, and in spite of the fact that the company had/has a pension plan, we heeded his fatherly advice. Many of our contemporaries either did not have such a wonderful and caring boss or, for whatever reason, chose not to participate.

DH's pension is not nearly enough to FIRE on alone (<30% of current gross after 32 years of service at age 55). I know his first boss is long gone, but I think of him often and am very grateful that he took the time to talk to DH.

So, yes, we were lucky..... and "lucky" that we listened.