Lawrencewendall
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What jumped right out at me was that for a 30 year time period, 75% equities did better than 100% at 4% WR. May have to re-think my current 90% position. Thanks!
4% rule
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What jumped right out at me was that for a 30 year time period, 75% equities did better than 100% at 4% WR. May have to re-think my current 90% position. Thanks!
Blue Collar Guy
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What jumped right out at me was that for a 30 year time period, 75% equities did better than 100% at 4% WR. May have to re-think my current 90% position. Thanks!
i read some where that 80-85 % is the best mix
REWahoo
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Blue Collar Guy
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cant argue with this, works for me
Blue Collar Guy
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i already got a brief answer to my question, and it was "NO". i put in an 80/20 portfolio with a 50 year time frame , it said i can get 3.15 % withdrawal without soc sec, at a 100 % success rate. i get a 3.96 % withdrawal if i include 18k a year soc sec starting in year 2032.
the question remains what does this other calculator say about this? i dont know how to do it. its more of a just for my information kind of thing, im retired ,im done, im not withdrawing anything, im just curious, thank you. P.S. to the more learned posters that do not answer my questions, but love to explain to me how terrible my English is, go to another post and practice ur language expertise,at my age and mind set ur not changing my typing.
Lawrencewendall
Full time employment: Posting here.
DrRoy
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I personally do not believe that backdated experience is 100% valid. Backdated experience is based on historic investment returns, which were generated from the historic economic situation of the time. The future economic situation will likely include lower average rates of growth that the past, so we should plan for lower rates of investment return as well. If the rates of return are going to be lower, then a safe and successful WR will have to be lower as well.
So this guy's chart suggests 100% equity portfolio, with a 4.75% WR, is good for a 40yr retirement, with 80% certainty!? This is good news! I may just win this rat race after all.
haha
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Would you really trust your retirement on some random guy and his charts
If so, I hope no family members are depending on you.
Ha
Would you really trust your retirement on some random guy and his charts
If so, I hope no family members are depending on you.
Ha
Ha, I have miles to go before I sleep. I reckon I'll have ample opportunity to rerun FireCalc, war game final budgets, etc, etc, etc. before pulling the trigger, or having it pulled for me. But I take good cheer whenever I find good news.
Wouldn't say I trust the author too much. He seems to be in the 100% success rate camp, which I think is silly. But I've seen articles suggesting 6.5% WR is rational in American historical stock markets, so this 4.75% feels right. I'll do due diligence eventually. Most posters on this site are much more conservative than I'd ever want to be.
I just have DW and she's feisty enough. I reckon she'll get by okay, regardless.
I was too close to giving up or starting over just three years ago. The finish line isn't in sight, but I can imagine it. Optimistic news like this really gives me a boost.
mathjak107
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updated trinity shows 35% equity can do the trick but balance can be low after 30 years.
Your're joking, right?
Oh I just noticed your from Woodstock.
The worst year was 1966 and 3.5% still worked! That's my plan 3.5% and will likely leave money on the table.
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https://financialmentor.com/retirement-planning/safe-withdrawal-rate/13192
This is by Todd R. Tresidder, its about the book and some of background. It quotes Wade Plau saying 2010 retirees will only have a 1.8% safe withdrawal rate. I would say he was quite wrong. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation#analysisResults The withdrawal plan to use is the VPW system. Which you can find over on bogleheads forum, any year that allows you to take more than you need just put it in a rainy day fund for bad years.
This is by Todd R. Tresidder, its about the book and some of background. It quotes Wade Plau saying 2010 retirees will only have a 1.8% safe withdrawal rate. I would say he was quite wrong. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation#analysisResults The withdrawal plan to use is the VPW system. Which you can find over on bogleheads forum, any year that allows you to take more than you need just put it in a rainy day fund for bad years.
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Golden sunsets
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Would you really trust your retirement on some random guy and his charts
If so, I hope no family members are depending on you.
Ha
I remember the author of this study was posting on this site a few months ago (about his study) and within days was "gone travelling".
Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
haha
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I apologize. I was too flip. Truth is, these things are essentially unknowable, although I do rend toward a conservative slant.
Ha
No apology needed. One can hardly over advocate for skepticism and due diligence.
For a 30 year period the 4% rule with a 60/40 allocation is pretty darn good. At least it is good enough for me. I plan to do a lot of traveling, eating out, live shows, etc. I worked da*m hard for 40+ years and sure as heck am not going to live on 1.24% or whatever because some talking head says things will be "worse" in the future. How the hell do they know I've heard so many predictions of how horrible things will be and they never pan out. There is just as much chance of the Dow at 40,000 in 10 years as 5,000. Let me know in 10 years how it worked out.
I've heard so many predictions of how horrible things will be and they never pan out. There is just as much chance of the Dow at 40,000 in 10 years as 5,000. Let me know in 10 years how it worked out.For a 30 year period the 4% rule with a 60/40 allocation is pretty darn good. At least it is good enough for me. I plan to do a lot of traveling, eating out, live shows, etc. I worked da*m hard for 40+ years and sure as heck am not going to live on 1.24% or whatever because some talking head says things will be "worse" in the future. How the hell do they know
+1
WoodsWalker
Confused about dryer sheets
Your're joking, right?
The worst year was 1966 and 3.5% still worked! That's my plan 3.5% and will likely leave money on the table.
I hope he's wrong Alaska55. Tresidder makes the point historical data based on US market may be overly optimistic. Our national debt is astronomical, other countries leading in manufacturing and catching up in education, etc. I should say, we all hope Tresidder's pessimism is wrong. But my caution was reinforced by The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb, a much longer but excellent book.
I hope to retire early, maybe I'm being too conservative in my planning. I worked hard and long for what I have, want to pass some on to my kids. Hope you can reassure me.
Major Tom
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There's no such thing as way too conservative in this forum
There's no such thing as way too conservative in this forum
Amen brother
Danmar
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For a 30 year period the 4% rule with a 60/40 allocation is pretty darn good. At least it is good enough for me. I plan to do a lot of traveling, eating out, live shows, etc. I worked da*m hard for 40+ years and sure as heck am not going to live on 1.24% or whatever because some talking head says things will be "worse" in the future. How the hell do they know
Agree. I always get a kick out of people who take ultra low WR's. Maybe they have relatively small portfolios and it doesn't matter much? Or maybe they are starting out conservatively and will adjust if things work out? Or maybe they just can't figure out where to spend a few more bucks?
In any event, I figure we should at least be able to take dividends? Flexibility is key.
USGrant1962
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Yes, people have lots of reasons for their actual withdrawal rates, and it's their money so good for them
I understand the debate about valuations and longer-than-30-year retirements leading to 3.5% or 3.25% SWRs. But I also cannot get my head around the concept that you have to go below 2% for a "safe" withdrawal rate. If you really believe that you should be 100% in TIPS. Simple math says your portfolio will last 50 years at 2% WR, including inflation. At a 1.25% WR it will last 80 years.
Fedup
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Here is a question, if you go below 2%, then why not put your money in CD and earn 3%.
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