Not loving the up and up of the markets

[SecondCor521]

I've posited elsewhere that I think it is reasonable to think that the drops in the S&P in the fall of 2015 and around the beginning of 2016 could count as legitimate pullbacks / retrenchments even if they didn't reach the 20% level (which they didn't IIRC).

Elsewhere I think I remember reading that small caps did pull back 20% sometime recently. Checking, it looks like the Russell 2000 did fall by about 20% in the last half of 2015: 1254 on 6/1/15, 1035 on 1/1/16.

 

[audreyh1]

You could be absolutely right. I do not know. Mark Hulbert from market watch says the stock market fell twice at least 20% since 2009. I am not saying it did. Mark Hulbert quotes Ned Davis research saying the stock market had two bear markets since 2009.

Hmmmm - if you look on the internet you generally won't find bear markets listed after 2009. So I wonder about someone's definition......

Often the S&P500 is used as the benchmark, and although there were numerous corrections since 2009, and one got real close at -19.4% in 2011, there have been no >20% drops since 2009.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf

 

[audreyh1]

I've posited elsewhere that I think it is reasonable to think that the drops in the S&P in the fall of 2015 and around the beginning of 2016 could count as legitimate pullbacks / retrenchments even if they didn't reach the 20% level (which they didn't IIRC).

Sure, these were corrections. These usually occur fairly often although they seem somewhat scarce lately.

 

[Fedup]

I think it was less than 15%, IIRC.

 

[SecondCor521]

Yup, I'm just not really sure what "counts" to reset the clock on a bull market from an economic point of view. Personally I'd like to believe that late 2015/early 2016 counts.
I remember that pullback and it did feel like it was deep enough and long enough to at least shake out / shake up some investors. So I'd like to think we're in a new bull market that is only a year or so old and not at the tail end of a 8 year bull market (if one counts from March 2009). But I guess time will tell which is true.

 

[audreyh1]

Yup, I'm just not really sure what "counts" to reset the clock on a bull market from an economic point of view. Personally I'd like to believe that late 2015/early 2016 counts.
I remember that pullback and it did feel like it was deep enough and long enough to at least shake out / shake up some investors. So I'd like to think we're in a new bull market that is only a year or so old and not at the tail end of a 8 year bull market (if one counts from March 2009). But I guess time will tell which is true.

No clock was reset. We continue in a very extended bull market.

Nothing since 2009 has been particularly deep or long at all.

 

[Fedup]

I don't like this up and up market. Stock of the company that my kid will start working in Sept has gone up 40% since has accepted the offer. I was hoping it stays low so she can get more shares from her RSUs.

 

[kcowan]

I have a convertible debenture that matures on 6/30 with a guaranteed price of $10 currently trading for $55. Please hang on Mr Market. $40k at 6.25% p.a. finally converts at $220k if the market holds!

(New Flyer Industries)

 

[W2R]

But me, I love the up and up of the markets!

I kind of missed the great bull market of the 90's, you might say? I was going through a very rough period in my life, and didn't have any investments at that time. I was always so envious of those who did.

But now, it looks like this bull market might end up being even better! Hard to imagine but it just keeps going up and up. Maybe in another few years, we can tell younger people "Yes, I was invested during the Great Bull Market of 2009-2020 and it really paid off for me."

 

[Lsbcal]

I kind of missed the great bull market of the 90's, you might say? I was going through a very rough period in my life, and didn't have any investments at that time. I was always so envious of those who did.

But now, it looks like this bull market might end up being even better! Hard to imagine but it just keeps going up and up. Maybe in another few years, we can tell younger people "Yes, I was invested during the Great Bull Market of 2009-2020 and it really paid off for me."

Yes, I think we've seen this sort of thing before.
Following the solid blue line (current decade) much like the 1980's and 1990's.

 

[W2R]

I simply cannot believe the way the market keeps going up, up, UP!!!! The Dow is at 21,206 and climbing. The day I retired (11/9/2009) it was at 10,227. When will this strong and seemingly invincible bull market end? This is just unreal. It never occurred to me that the reality of retirement would be like this.

Dare I "Wheee!!!!" yet again ?

 

[easysurfer]

Oh no .

Now I'm convinced the market is due for a hard fall soon.

 

[Fedup]

I'm hoping for a real big Whee, my kid's company stock is at an all time high. She has not started yet. Please Whee for more Whee. Whatever that means?

 

[aja8888]

I simply cannot believe the way the market keeps going up, up, UP!!!! The Dow is at 21,206 and climbing. The day I retired (11/9/2009) it was at 10,227. When will this strong and seemingly invincible bull market end? This is just unreal. It never occurred to me that the reality of retirement would be like this.

Dare I "Wheee!!!!" yet again ?

I think I'm going to place a bunch of sell orders this weekend.

 

[W2R]

Oh no .

Now I'm convinced the market is due for a hard fall soon.

Don't worry. It won't be long before happy dances and pretty "Up, Up, and Away" visuals are replaced by gifs like this one as we catapult into another horrible, bottomless recession:

 

[Lsbcal]

Don't worry. It won't be long before happy dances and pretty "Up, Up, and Away" visuals are replaced by gifs like this one as we catapult into another horrible, bottomless recession:

...

You have redeemed yourself and removed the curse. Go out my child. ... and spend, spend, spend.

 

[RobbieB]

I bought another load of Wagyu.

8 half pound tenderloins and 4 half pound burgers. Six pounds of beef for $500.

I know what to do with a "bull" market, toast 'em up on the barbie -

 

[W2R]

I bought another load of Wagyu.

8 half pound tenderloins and 4 half pound burgers. Six pounds of beef for $500.

I know what to do with a "bull" market, toast 'em up on the barbie -

Yum, that sounds really good.

 

[Fedup]

I bought more flowers. No Wagyu for me.

 

[Lsbcal]

We're going out for some East Indian food tonight. DW will get some Samosas.

 

[Marita40]

My strategy is to watch my investments every day when the market is rising and don't look when it's falling. Works well for me! I'm never upset

 

[RobbieB]

Already replenished the Maine lobster tails, first class airplane rides next week, gonna eat a lot of lobster in Boston and when I get back I'll start with the caviar & vodka.

Caviar & icy cold vodka sounds good for the 4th of July! Caviar & vodka for appetizer, wagyu on the grill for supper -

Blow that dough!

 

[easysurfer]

Don't worry. It won't be long before happy dances and pretty "Up, Up, and Away" visuals are replaced by gifs like this one as we catapult into another horrible, bottomless recession:

That's the kind of tumble I'm afraid of .

 

[ERD50]

I bought another load of Wagyu.

8 half pound tenderloins and 4 half pound burgers. Six pounds of beef for $500.

I know what to do with a "bull" market, toast 'em up on the barbie -

Thanks for the reminder - I need to try some Wagyu (upper-middle-class man's Kobe ), and some of that 'heritage' pork (Berkshire? - yep,had to look it up).

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Oh no .

Now I'm convinced the market is due for a hard fall soon.

Please, not for another week, at least!

I've been having some discussions with someone who received a large lump sum in January. I found out, after answering a bunch of questions about investing, that they have not invested it yet.

They got stuck on watching the 'news', and kept deciding this isn't a good time to invest (while the market is up 5% since January!). And they were ready to go all in a few weeks ago, but someone told them the market is at a peak and will drop big time in the next two weeks!

Well, one week of up another ~ 1%, I'd sure like to see another week at least flat... After I heard all this, I told them forget about 'investing', you'll freak out and sell at the low - just stick it in a treasuries or something.

-ERD50