exnavynuke
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I'm not psychic, so I'm still buying stocks. Good luck though.
Me too. On both counts. Wasn't easy to stay calm but that's what we did.
Oh - I won’t sit on my hands if we have a huge drop. I’ll be busy rebalancing. And trying to do some strategic tax loss harvesting. And if it’s that bad my current AA scheme has me going more aggressive if CAPE10 craters.Wow, fascinating. I’ll be very interested to see if you are right this year.
Personally I’ve been surprised the stock market reaction hasn’t been more strongly negative to the recent fast interest rate rises, so my instinct is that there are more shoes to drop.
But I’m sitting on my hands as usual.
The OP is timing the market. He obviously knows more than all of the financial gurus and most anyone that knows anything about finances.
He should be on TV.
I recall an article I read which showed that, historically anyway, that there were actually only a few days where if you were out of the market, you lost out on the majority of the return. Said another way, the market tends to jump up quickly and significantly.
Personally, I wish running_man would not have posted this as I feel the same way about the market. So while I'm not getting out of the market, I guess I'd at least be singing along if he did come into Alice's restaurant with a few friends.
+1 on selling stocks
Although I sold over the last couple years, I am 95% out of the market. I am laddering cd's and don't care about losing market returns. I have enough money to RE, and after 40 years in the market, do not want risk it anymore.
I sleep like a baby
Some of you guys would likely tell Brad Pitt how to get dates.
Sure,Historically, equity prices have risen while low interest rates rise, up to about 5% on the 10 Year Treasury. Makes sense in that interest rates rising from very low levels reflects an improving economy, which is also good for stocks, up to a point of course.
like having sex in other than the missionary position.
As of today I am back to 0% stocks. The action of the market and the confidence of the average participant leads me to fear there is shortly to be a move of epic proportions and speed to the downside.
As of today I am back to 0% stocks. The action of the market and the confidence of the average participant leads me to fear there is shortly to be a move of epic proportions and speed to the downside. Hopefully, I turn out to be wrong but am willing to lose a few percent to the upside to avoid the downside I fear. Last time I sold all was 2007.
The OP is timing the market. He obviously knows more than all of the financial gurus and most anyone that knows anything about finances.
He should be on TV.
Interest rates aren’t nearly so friendly anymore.
.
This is a ridiculous oft-mentioned fallacy. One doesn't have to have perfect market timing in order to benefit from market timing.It has been well established that timing the market is a fools errand. You must sell at or near the top, buy again at or near the bottom and do this every time.
I believe most people on this forum would agree that over the long term equities will rise but over the short term they are completely unpredictable. It seems to me then that the best predictor of long term success is total exposure to equities over time, and that short term jumps in and out (i.e. attempts to time the market) would pay off just about as often as not.
This is a ridiculous oft-mentioned fallacy. One doesn't have to have perfect market timing in order to benefit from market timing.
I'll give a stupid example: Suppose I had a coin that came up heads 55% of the time and tails 45% of the time. And you knew that. You could bet with that coin and not get "heads" every time, but if you ever bet "tails", you would be crazy, wouldn't you?