And despite all the stupidity and inaction in D.C. I just don't see SS taking a serious haircut because for too many people it is their only or major source of income. That would create a major social crisis.
And even if you don't need SS, I'd be willing to wager that most on this forum know or are related to someone who does need it. I sure do.
That seems to be the history of SS changes. The government waits until the last minute to make any changes since both sides prefer not to face any political backlash.
Depending on the definition of "serious haircut", I agree. I don't think the currently pending across-the-board haircut will take place. But I do think benefits will be reduced in some fashion.
I suspect one side will favor increased taxes and the other side will look for decreased benefits. A combination of the two will almost certainly become the compromise solution at the last minute. Some of the changes will affect every recipient, while other changes will be grandfathered in. Some will win, others will lose.
That's what happened in 1983. That's what almost certainly will happen again (around 2030?).