The Bull Run will continue for years .. Cabot article

[unclemick]

Who was that old guy - J. P. Morgan or some such said about The Market 'It Will Fluctuate.'



I on the other hand have have put my trust in electricity and those 'Trusty? Vanguard computers' to re - balance my balanced index on full auto.

From 1966 to 2006 I finally figured out that I hadn't figured it out so I went full auto.

heh heh heh - If after being really cheap early in ER and loosening up spend wise later in ER and IF money is left on the table I will try not to cry.

 

[Christine]

Isn't that the same as saying my next coin flip will probably be tails because the last nine were heads?

Sounds very similar to me. But maybe you have a magic coin that can tell the future?

 

[marko]

Not a problem for me. I'll be 87 years old, and thus past my "break-even" date, so I'll be ahead of the game!

And I'll be 88.

But, according to the article, by 2020 (15 months from now) the "quality of life should go to zero" due to pollution and overpopulation to the point where pollution starts to kill people and the population goes down below where it was in 1900.

See, in 1973 pollution and overpopulation was 'the thing' only to be replaced by global cooling, replaced by acid rain, which was replaced by the oil shortage, which led us here: talking about SS haircuts as we wait for ever increasingly expensive shipping containers to deliver our air conditioners to help us deal with global warming which we won't be able to afford because of the Boomers having caused a recession.

 

[Out of Steam]

https://cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/bull-market-likely-years-run/

Saw an article and I agree the bull run will continue for awhile.. another 10 years or so perhaps. The Tech sector will continue to power growth.

I'm not a doom-and-gloom type, but I'm also old enough to remember "Dow 36000" in the late 1990s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000

 

[Clone]

What a bunch of noise. We have known that the Mayans have shown us that the galactic end of the world is going to occur in 2012...


Wait a minute...

 

[jazz4cash]

I didn't even read the article but when a lot of people start exclaiming that the longest bull market in decades will go on for another ten years I think irrational exuberance. Not that I will be changing anything in any event. Ten more years and I will definitely be flying first class.

Yeah but, according to the article, this bull market run only started in 2013 so it’s only 5 yrs old.

 

[Breedlove]

I know one thing , DW has a 401K and we are watching the Dow very close . Once the Dow hits 26000 we will sell and move to a managed IRA . Expect a correction when the market hits 26000. ……...OK just talking .

 

[cyber888]

Haven't you heard that civilization is going to collapse in 2040? The stock market won't matter after that.

https://bigthink.com/paul-ratner/in-1973-an-mit-computer-predicted-the-end-of-civilization-so-far-its-on-target

It can't be. Based on the translated Tibetan Buddhist scriptures, Human beings tens of thousands of years ago were giants and lived thousands of years. When the world ends, human beings will be 12 inches tall and have a 20 years lifespan at most. We're not there yet.

 

[Oz investor]

https://cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/bull-market-likely-years-run/

Saw an article and I agree the bull run will continue for awhile.. another 10 years or so perhaps. The Tech sector will continue to power growth.

I’ve heard the doom and gloom saying the Baby Boomers will take out tons of money from the stock market..and the market will collapse lol. On the other hand, aside from the military and government workers who are still getting pensions, Private pensions are a thing of the past and younger people are plowing their retirement savings into the stock market or index funds. And I think many boomers’s kids will inherit their 401k, instead of blowing all of it.

being both a 'baby boomer ' and a contrarian it should come as no surprise that i disagree , i see pensions being wound back 70 soon and 75 later

a lot a superannuation funds will be ghosts of what you expect , excessive fees and other charges and to ( very often ) compound that serial under-performance if there is a bond rout or stock market collapse watch the asset base and yields plummet .

i need to be in the market to force asset growth but i also take profit earlier than many .

there is a huge amount of global debt , there is no nice resolution to the massive debt obligations .

 

[HadEnuff]

The good thing to know here is that before the market tumbles into a correction, followed by a decade long bear, articles like this will give us plenty of warning ahead of time, for us to reallocate appropriately.

 

[Badger]

Haven't you heard that civilization is going to collapse in 2040? The stock market won't matter after that.

https://bigthink.com/paul-ratner/in...-the-end-of-civilization-so-far-its-on-target

Not a problem for us. We will be dead by then or have so few grey cells left we won't know what is going on anyway. However, I might talk to the grown children about options with their inheritance if they are interested in my opinion. Whether they manage it for their remaining years or blow it all is up to them. What ever they decide is alright with me. I won't know anyway. My job will be done.



Cheers!

 

[Oz investor]

The good thing to know here is that before the market tumbles into a correction, followed by a decade long bear, articles like this will give us plenty of warning ahead of time, for us to reallocate appropriately.

allocate to where

i am very light in interest bearing securities ( and will probably have a hybrid converted before the year's end )

simply because the reward for risk taken is not there , i did move extra cash into real estate trusts ( as bond proxies ) but that market is slowly declining and may yet slump heavily .

CDs barely beat inflation and might not break even , depending ob your tax obligations .

considering this is a 'fantastic bull market ' there are some very strange indicators flashing

 

[audreyh1]

Isn't that the same as saying my next coin flip will probably be tails because the last nine were heads?

No.

 

[audreyh1]

See, in 1973 pollution and overpopulation was 'the thing' only to be replaced by global cooling, replaced by acid rain, which was replaced by the oil shortage, which led us here: talking about SS haircuts as we wait for ever increasingly expensive shipping containers to deliver our air conditioners to help us deal with global warming which we won't be able to afford because of the Boomers having caused a recession.

Some of these issues were addressed and improved - like acid rain and oil shortages.

 

[Martha]

. . .
See, in 1973 pollution and overpopulation was 'the thing' only to be replaced by global cooling, replaced by acid rain, which was replaced by the oil shortage, which led us here: talking about SS haircuts as we wait for ever increasingly expensive shipping containers to deliver our air conditioners to help us deal with global warming which we won't be able to afford because of the Boomers having caused a recession.

Some of these issues were addressed and improved - like acid rain and oil shortages.

And, there never was a consensus on global cooling. In fact, in the mid-70s the basic consensus was that they did not yet have a good understanding of what determines the course of the "climate machine" to make climate predictions.

 

[calmloki]

^
! cool!

 

[flyingaway]

I lived through 2000 and 2008. I remembered the news in those days were: "Everything in the world is bad, only the U.S. is good. And then, every sector is in trouble, only the housing market is a bright spot".
I am beginning to hear similar things.

 

[ls99]

I am sure the bull... will run on forever from the financial papers and advisors.

 

[cyber888]

And I thought I was being an extreme contrarian, because everyone, including you, are saying the same thing - huge debts, taking profits early, global problems are getting worst ... heard exactly the same thing you were saying in 2013 - until now .. everyone is saying the bull market is about to end ... but the bull market keeps going up 5 years now since the doom and gloom. So, I'm contrarian .. by saying the bull market will keep going up for at least 10 more years. That's my contrarian statement, because everyone says NOT, including you. LOL

being both a 'baby boomer ' and a contrarian it should come as no surprise that i disagree , i see pensions being wound back 70 soon and 75 later

a lot a superannuation funds will be ghosts of what you expect , excessive fees and other charges and to ( very often ) compound that serial under-performance if there is a bond rout or stock market collapse watch the asset base and yields plummet .

i need to be in the market to force asset growth but i also take profit earlier than many .

there is a huge amount of global debt , there is no nice resolution to the massive debt obligations .

 

[Christine]

Isn't that the same as saying my next coin flip will probably be tails because the last nine were heads?

Sounds very similar to me. But maybe you have a magic coin that can tell the future?

Really should have added a at the end there. Did not mean to sound cross.

 

[YVRRocketSurgery]

I didn't even read the article but when a lot of people start exclaiming that the longest bull market in decades will go on for another ten years I think irrational exuberance. Not that I will be changing anything in any event. Ten more years and I will definitely be flying first class.

Point to note that the article refers to an ongoing secular bull market which is a longer term rise in the market which can contain multiple shorter term cyclical bull and bear markets.

 

[53anddone]

As boomers age they become more conservative. I think that’s a trend worth watching.

 

[FIREd]

I am rooting for that bull run to continue a while longer! The divorce is taking a bite out of my portfolio (and my lifestyle), so it would be awesome if I could quickly recover, financially at least.

 

[NW-Bound]

Isn't that the same as saying my next coin flip will probably be tails because the last nine were heads?

No.

I will provide a bit of explanation on the difference. The market is a random process, same as a coin toss, but there are different kinds of random processes.

A coin does not remember its past, and would not know the last nine tosses were heads. On the other hand, the market does have memories, or states. It's the P/E, the growth of GDP, the interest rate, inflation rate, etc... The interaction between the moving parts is extremely complicated, not to mention other random influencing events such as election results, natural catastrophes, etc... But the market does have a reasonable expectation, else we would not talk about "reversion to the mean". Exactly when it reverts, that's the million-dollar question for everybody.

Back on the premise that the bull will continue for years, I don't count on it, but would not mind being pleasantly surprised.

I lived through 2000 and 2008. I remembered the news in those days were: "Everything in the world is bad, only the U.S. is good. And then, every sector is in trouble, only the housing market is a bright spot".
I am beginning to hear similar things.

But but this time is different.

"Things are going great, and they're only getting better
The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades"

 

[Oz investor]

https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/age-pension/eligibility/age-rules

From July 2017
Depending on your birthdate, from 1 July 2017 age pension age will be 65 years and 6 months.

After that, age pension age will go up 6 months every 2 years until 1 July 2023.

If your birthdate is you’ll be old enough at
1 July 1952 to 31 December 1953 65 years and 6 months
1 January 1954 to 30 June 1955 66 years
1 July 1955 to 31 December 1956 66 years and 6 months
From 1 January 1957 67 years

and this is in Australia .. the land that hasn't had a recession in 26 years ( if you believe the government )

apparently the economy is so great they have to cut costs to celebrate

the reality is we are the test dummies for international policies .

they claim Christianity but plot with witchcraft and smoke