Bear, Correction, Recession what is it?

[street]

Bear, Correction, Recession what is happening and where is the markets going?

I still believe it is a correction but beleive the Feds will dictate what will happen in the end.

To many positives for me to beleive we are heading for a 20 plus decline just yet. IMO

 

[Maenad]

Bear Market is a 20% drop, Correction is a 10%.

Recession is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP growth I believe. Corrections and Bear Markets are the stock market, Recession is the economy.

 

[RetireAge50]

It is the Great Depression. Oh wait never mind, my portfolio is within 5% of its all-time high.

 

[Dtail]

Said it before. Just hit the 20% with the same set of current circumstances and it can move up slowly from there.

 

[Aerides]

The Fed has two key objectives in their interest rate decisions, neither of which are the market: Inflation & Unemployment. So neither of these are specifically geared to adjusting for a recession or a bull market either.

The Fed would be out of bounds to say "we'll hold off on interest rates because the stock market...." but, if unemployment ticked up then they would use that reason instead.

Of course, all these things can interlink, correlate, and influence one another, but not all the same.

We are not (per any current economic indicators) heading into a recession at present. 3Q18 GDP was 3.5%, following 4.2 for 2Q. Will that slow? Maybe, but a lot of things would have to go bad to get two consecutive quarters in negative numbers.

OFC, recession indicators vs. predictors are different (see talking heads on finance TV). But it is very possible to have a market correction without an actual recession.

The Market != The Economy

 

[Christine]

Only someone checking this thread sometime in the future will know. For the rest of us it's speculation.

 

[gerntz]

It's just the stock market, not the economy. So it's not a recession.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I said this in another thread, it still holds.

I think the volatility is caused more by Geopolitical uncertainty rather than rising interest rates, which are not really high by any means. Yes the stock market has been spoilt over the years of next to zero rates, but it really cannot be maintained, and it knows it. It is well known that what the market fears most above all is uncertainty. There is a tremendous amount of emotion in the stock market, this is somewhat unpredictable at best. It will probably be like this for another couple of years until things hopefully settle down. JMHO

 

[Franklin]

my portfolio is down about 3.8% and is has been in a mixed 50/50 socks and bonds. The economy is still strong but the media can find too many things to make a stir about (trump, Saudi Arabia, Fed, China arrest, tariffs, Brexit, etc). Don't think we will go beyond a correction but there is too much noise that spooks both people and machine trading. Just have to try and look long term and keep a positive attitude. Not for the faint of heart.

 

[Free bird]

Mostly bullish thread here. Were all living the fed life. 12% returns on the S&P the last 10 years with 2% inflation. It doesn't get any better than that.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Mostly bullish thread here. Were all living the fed life. 12% returns on the S&P the last 10 years with 2% inflation. It doesn't get any better than that.

Perhaps such irrational exuberance induces denial of the signs that influence the future...

 

[Free bird]

Risk took a 10 year holiday. I think a 50/50 mix will get you 4-6% the next 10 years. Wait... I sound like Bogle. No.. Bogle sounds like me

 

[ponyboy]

Someone told me once that the market will go up, and the market will go down. People seem to forget that.

 

[Free bird]

Forget what?

 

[frayne]

It's fear and greed baby, fear and greed !

 

[ponyboy]

never forget

 

[imoldernu]

Most current prophecies about the market are Knightian.

 

[flintnational]

I have no idea about the market, but I am hoping for a bear. We are over due. I would rather get it out of the way. Re the economy, I do not see any signs of a recession.

 

[street]

Just got back home from the ranch and heard stocks were down about 500, I just looked and up about 75. LOL It is, what it is, and I guess for now we can't even call it a correction.
Thanks for your thoughts.

 

[Free bird]

Another big time reversal.

 

[aja8888]

I speculate that fund managers need to show profits in December to close out the year. So they take it down as it is now, buy back, and ride it up until 12/31. Then they collect their bonuses and kiss their wives!

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I speculate that fund managers need to show profits in December to close out the year. So they take it down as it is now, buy back, and ride it up until 12/31. Then they collect their bonuses and kiss their wives!

I was going to say a similar thing, the traders make the money at the expense of those who are concerned and jump in and out. Well sort of anyway.

At the end of the day the market is flat.

 

[street]

Yep, what a show. LOL

 

[Free bird]

At some point they'll gun it north. It's time to skim some o$f the top.

 

[audreyh1]

It usually takes the National Bureau of Economic Research a year to say we are in a recession and identify when it started at the prior economic peak. So nobody knows when we are at the start of a recession, only well afterwards.