Life Expectancy

[Independent]

Simple, eh? Average Life Expectancy is 78.6 years.

Maybe not that simple. That 78.6 is the average for men and women for persons born in 2010. Since you weren't born in 1910, is there another way of looking at age?

Try this:

https://www.infoplease.com/life-expectancy-birth-race-and-sex-1930-2010

It's the average life expectancy based birth year. Much ado about nothing, except that you might want to see how you're doing compared to the odds.

Those are "period" life tables. The calculation assumes no changes in mortality rates after you are born. So, the age 60 mortality rate for the group born in 1950 is the mortality rate for 60 year olds in 1950, not the mortality rate for 60 year olds in 2010.

I think that if you want to compare yourself to other people in your birth year cohort, it is better to use a "cohort" table.

This is the percent of men born in 1930, who were expected to live/actually lived to 80:
According to the period table: 18%
According to a cohort table: 38%

If you'd rather look at medians:
According to the period table, almost 50% of the boys were expected to make it to 66.
According to the cohort table, almost 50% of the boys actually made it to 73.

The difference is that people born in 1930 experienced reduced mortality rates during their lifetimes.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_6_1930.html
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_7_1930.html

 

[joeea]

My dad was born in 1932.

He was a heavy smoker for many years, had a double bypass about 30 years ago, has always had high blood pressure and high cholesterol. His dad died at 72 of heart disease.

At birth, his life expectancy was probably around 60-70. He's still kicking at 87.

Unfortunately, we won't be around much longer. He has cancer of the stomach and esophagus that is inoperable. Still, he says that he's had a good run and is ready to go.

 

[NW-Bound]

And here's another story. This one is a blog from a full-time RV'er that I stumbled across when researching for RV info.

This man was diagnosed with leukemia in his 50s. The standard treatment was full-body radiation along with chemo to kill all bone marrow cells, followed by bone marrow transplant. The side effects were horrible, and many could not stand such treatments. And prior to having the marrow transplant, the patient has no immune system, and quite a few would die because of infection. The chance of success is not that high.

This man survived, and recovered after the marrow transplant. And of course, he had to quit work and take ER. I guess due to insufficient funds, he had to do RV full-timing.

A few years later, while camping out in the boondocks of New Mexico, he contracted flesh-eating bacteria infection. He did not know how it happened, and suspected that it was an insect bite. He knew enough to drive immediately to a nearby local hospital, and within a few hours, they had to evacuate him to a larger hospital to try to save his life.

He woke up a week or two later, with much flesh cut out from his left arm, and going up to half of his chest. There was a lot of surgeries for skin graft, not differently than for burn victims. He regained some use of that arm later after rehab.

He is doing OK, and back to his RV life the last time I looked at his blog.

What an ordeal! Life is never fair.

Gosh, if I am not sick or in pain, I am grateful already. I will try not to complain about lesser things.

 

[robnplunder]

Gosh, if I am not sick or in pain, I am grateful already. I will try not to complain about lesser things.

Count me in.

My two younger brothers succumbed to cancer at age 49 and 54. I feel like I should live their fill as well. For now, I am enjoying my health and FI and consider myself lucky and blessed. Of course, I have right to change my mind if my next year's health check results in ....

 

[NW-Bound]

There's nothing like a sudden illness to remind you that life is delicate and fleeting.

In a way, I am getting used to it. If it happens again to me, well, it may be time to go.

And it's just a matter of time. I remember reading an autobiography, where the author said that at least death was something democratic. It spares nobody.

 

[Oz investor]

i lost my faith in predictions in general when the doctor declared me still-born ' and induced me .... two weeks later i confused several doctors at once ( and chose my iown time to be born , and survived the surgery shortly after )

so i listen to predictions and plan for them to be right AND wrong ( except for meteoroligists and economists where cynicism prevails )

the alternative view is the good die young ( the evil seem to live forever )

 

[NW-Bound]

Ah, we are only delaying the inevitable.

 

[sengsational]

Ok, I've got 9 years to go. If I never go to sleep, I can stretch the 9 years to be 12.

More likely, if you slept significantly less, you'd knock it down to about 5; longevity and sleep are not independent. Type "Matthew Walker" into your library web site and read his book. I was convinced.

 

[Jeffman52]

Life can be such a crap-shoot. So I'm 56 and my wife and I are both pretty healthy or at least we think we are LOL...

Short story. We had a water softener put in a couple of months ago. Well I don't know how many of you have experience with those, but it makes water more slippery. So as I was stepping out of the shower this weekend, I missed the floor mat and my foot hit the vinyl flooring instead... I'm gonna tell you it was like hitting ice but slipperier. I had my momentum going forward so there was not going back,,, I tried to catch myself to no avail (I sliced the ends of three fingers trying to grab the edge of the shower door) and just sheer luck that I fell into the only spot that was open enough to not get badly hurt. I hit the floor pretty hard and my wet bod slid into the corner of the bathroom slamming into the wall. A foot to either side, and that could have been "it" for me at the young age of 56.

That being said, there is no way I'm not retiring early and on schedule. It can happen, just. like. that.

 

[robnplunder]

That being said, there is no way I'm not retiring early and on schedule. It can happen, just. like. that.

Ha, ha. A near death experience will do that.

I had a near death experience when I was 18 years old but other than the memory, it didn't change my life philosophy. Some 25 years later, an evil boss and younger brother's cancer convinced me to retire as soon as I can pull it. Life is unpredictable and one can't take a chance.

 

[NW-Bound]

Ha, ha. A near death experience will do that.

I had a near death experience when I was 18 years old but other than the memory, it didn't change my life philosophy. Some 25 years later, an evil boss and younger brother's cancer convinced me to retire as soon as I can pull it. Life is unpredictable and one can't take a chance.

My healthy son at 23 contracted a rare liver infection that could easily kill him if not treated in time. That plus some unhappiness at work where I was doing part-time consulting convinced me to pull the plug.

Little that I knew then that 6 months later, it was my turn to face death. We both completely recovered, but it affected me greatly. I guess my son also does not think he is so invincible now.

 

[NW-Bound]

Life can be such a crap-shoot. So I'm 56 and my wife and I are both pretty healthy or at least we think we are LOL...

... A foot to either side, and that could have been "it" for me at the young age of 56...

Darn, life is full of hazards. When one is not even safe inside his bathroom, how can people talk about living to 100 and such?

I am just trying to make it from day to day here.

 

[ckelly78z]

So for one with a heart that does not work at all (50% of it anyway) without electronic, computerized intervention, how does that fit in. 65 now had cardiac assistance intervention since 2006.

I have a new Medtronics pace maker late in 2017, after the drugs used in my chemotherapy treatments (early 1988) for Hodgkins disease was found to cause congestive heart failure in many patients. The 1st time I entered the hospital was around 2001 with symptoms that were being treated as Asthma...I couldn't breath, had no energy, and no stamina. The night I went into the hospital, they measured my ejection fraction at 13% (efficiency that your heart is operating), and instantly put me on a diuretic. By the next day I (5'10" 185#) had lost 17# of fluids and felt much better, but the damage had been done, and would return several more times before drug therapy was no longer effective.

By all accounts, I am am more active, and healthy looking than most 54 year olds, but multiple chemo, many past radiation treatments, and heart events (no blockages, just CHF) have taken their toll, so life expectancy is absolutely up in the air for me, and acts a wildcard for my future.

 

[Big_Hitter]

When my Dad was 90, his life expectancy was 93.5 and he died at 95. So I think he spent his whole life on the upper part of the curve!

everyone dies before his or her life expectancy

 

[NW-Bound]

When my Dad was 90, his life expectancy was 93.5 and he died at 95. So I think he spent his whole life on the upper part of the curve!

But when he got to 93.5, his life expectancy got bumped up also.

everyone dies before his or her life expectancy

... except that the one who finishes last gets to set the bar higher.

 

[Big_Hitter]

... except that the one who finishes last gets to set the bar higher.

nope, by definition, life expectancy equals your current age plus a mathematical expectation of future existence - every day you live, your current age increases so it's impossible to die after your life expectancy

geez, we have a bunch of armchair actuaries on this forum

 

[NW-Bound]

Doesn't a new record setter make them revise that mathematical expectation for newcomers?

Kind of like pushing back the horizon?

 

[Big_Hitter]

Doesn't a new record setter make them revise that mathematical expectation for newcomers?

Kind of like pushing back the horizon?

we use generational mortality tables now - each birth year cohort has a different mortality curve

the life expectancy formula doesn't change

 

[imoldernu]

Think that "near death experience" would have been a good topic as a separate thread. Brought back a memory...

1966 had a promotion to district manager which meant 5 days a week on the road, and one day in the office. We had moved to the country in Greenfield, Mass. Saturday night was my time to do my own thing. Behind our home were a series of mini mountains right on the Vermont border. Winter... dark... late at night 8 P.M.... a solo snowmobile trip to Hinsdale NH on the NH/VT line. About 15 miles.

Recent soft snow, and a narrow ridge over a 40 ft. deep gorge... A slip, and down the steep side , crashing thru trees, and landing wedged between a big rock and a fallen tree trunk. Even jeanie didn't know that I was going that way. Lost my gloves and toque... and maybe 20 degrees outside. About an hour of twisting turning and getting the machine upright. Probably ten miles from home... No trail... driving through trees and brush. Home by midnight, cut bruised, shaken, but alive. Fifty three years ago, but like yesterday.

Ya never know...

 

[Souschef]

Both parents died at 95.5
I use 95 as my scheduled death age.

Dad died at 93, Mom at 102
Splitting the difference, I figure 97

 

[joeea]

Dad died at 93, Mom at 102
Splitting the difference, I figure 97

And that's why you aren't going to retire early, right?

 

[NW-Bound]

we use generational mortality tables now - each birth year cohort has a different mortality curve

the life expectancy formula doesn't change

The tables will get updated if we have more and more of those lucky centenarians, I suppose.

 

[Big_Hitter]

The tables will get updated if we have more and more of those lucky centenarians, I suppose.

i forgot to mention that mortality improvement is also projected to the year in question

 

[NW-Bound]

Interesting. Of course they have to make some predictions into the future.

But is there a feedback mechanism to tune the model with real-life data as things unfold?

 

[Souschef]

And that's why you aren't going to retire early, right?

I have been retired for 10 years