Hopeful
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2013
- Messages
- 212
I realize there has already been a lot of discussion on sequence of return risks, but I wanted to discuss some aspects of sequence risk that keeps bouncing around in my head.
My DW and I have hit a number that we “should” feel confident that we could RE. FireCalc says we are 100%. But as many have we play the one more year game in case our spending isn’t what we think, we want more fun money, health issues etc. DW and I have drastically reduced our work hours, and DW works just enough to get health insurance. The plan that we are comfortable with now is to completely RE in 2 years as this would allow her to take advantage of her employers rule off 55, and allow for a few more years of growth.
That is where the sequence of return keeps “haunting” me. Sure FireCalc shows 100% now, but with the market at an all time high who knows what 2 years is going to bring. I realize that FireCalc is currently factoring all previous sequences in when spitting out the 100% number, but what if there was a major downturn over the next two years? If the market was down 30-40% 2 years from now, and FireCalc no longer showed a 100%, I wouldn’t feel so confident.
I realize a lot of this is just mind games as we get closer to RE. I also realize that I shouldn’t rely only on FireCalc. It is just as RE comes closer and closer, sequence risk seems to loom more over my head. Sorry if this makes little sense, but i just wanted to vent a little.
My DW and I have hit a number that we “should” feel confident that we could RE. FireCalc says we are 100%. But as many have we play the one more year game in case our spending isn’t what we think, we want more fun money, health issues etc. DW and I have drastically reduced our work hours, and DW works just enough to get health insurance. The plan that we are comfortable with now is to completely RE in 2 years as this would allow her to take advantage of her employers rule off 55, and allow for a few more years of growth.
That is where the sequence of return keeps “haunting” me. Sure FireCalc shows 100% now, but with the market at an all time high who knows what 2 years is going to bring. I realize that FireCalc is currently factoring all previous sequences in when spitting out the 100% number, but what if there was a major downturn over the next two years? If the market was down 30-40% 2 years from now, and FireCalc no longer showed a 100%, I wouldn’t feel so confident.
I realize a lot of this is just mind games as we get closer to RE. I also realize that I shouldn’t rely only on FireCalc. It is just as RE comes closer and closer, sequence risk seems to loom more over my head. Sorry if this makes little sense, but i just wanted to vent a little.