COVID-19 Health and Preparedness - Strictly Moderated

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Apparently India is considering trying one or more of the drug combinations. https://www.deccanherald.com/city/t...to-be-used-for-covid-19-treatment-814534.html

Thinking back on it, one of the first things that happened in the AIDS epidemic was a lot of gay men showing up in emergency rooms in San Francisco with a very virulent form of pneumonia of which they died. The HIV virus was eventually isolated and identified as a retrovirus. Perhaps Old Microbiologist can comment further on retroviruses and their treatment.
 
If that's all there was to it (keeping kids home would limit exposure), sure....
And despite the warnings to not have elderly people watch the kids, it's going to happen. And if kids get together at a friend's home to play (they will, some at-home parents will volunteer), those kids are in close contact, and now add an adult or two that the kids would not have had direct contact with. And maybe different parents on different days to spread the "pain"?

I can't say definitively that this will be worse on average, but I don't see how you can be so sure that it won't be worse. There are many, many cases of "unintended consequences", and this every well may be another. Sounds good on the surface, but may may things worse.

-ERD50

So I think the thing is that, sure - 30 million kids out of school all instead go to other group activities and care locations, that would be silly.

But a vast majority of them will be at home with their parents, and hopefully not out in large groups. Taking 25 million kids out of the equation helps reduce the spread better than taking zero out.
 
Scroll down, they name them. I think you nailed it.

Sorry, I must have missed that...

Early on, the conspiracy crowd noted that some of the protein sequences in the COVID genome were the same as in HIV. That led to the "originated in a lab" theory. These sequences turned out to be short and not all that uncommon. However, that might account for the virus' susceptibility to the HIV drugs. Again, Old Microbiologist might be helpful here.

I wonder if this drug combination has been tried in Italy. It appears that the predominant strain of virus there is one of the most deadly strains. Could enough of the retroviral drug and chloroquine be manufactured and sent there to make a difference?
 

From the above story:

He said the research was sparked by Chinese patients, who were first given the drug in Australia, showing their doctors information on the internet about the treatment used overseas.

Hah!

This is what I noted a month ago, on 2/14 after reading an article quoted by omni550 about how a Chinese young man recovered after being given a drug meant for HIV:

By the way, from the story told by the 21-year-old Chinese student in Wuhan, the hospitals were filled up in mid to late January, and they only gave CAT scan to people with a bad high fever. And then, it had to be really bad before they used the nucleic acid test to confirm the virus.

A lot of weaker patients died before getting any test. But before and after the Chinese young man had the virus confirmation, what helped him was the drug Kaletra, also known as Aluvia, which is an antiviral drug used for HIV.

Now, why can't they give the above drug to more people, instead of waiting for the viral confirmation? I suspect that is because the drug is in short supply. What is the stockpile of this drug elsewhere in the world? I suspect it is not that great, considering that there is no HIV outbreak for them to make a lot of this drug.


The discussions about that news were buried in a thread that was closed:

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f38/coronavirus-health-aspects-101852-40.html#post2370630

My memory is not that great, but I can remember what is important.
 
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In that closed thread, copyright1997reloaded replied to my post with:

copyright1997reloaded said:
Abbvie drug (Symbol ABBV), I'm a long term stockholder (even before the spin off from Abbott). Dunno if it is available as a generi or if anyone other than ABBV manufactures it. (although I think the patents on the underlying drugs Lopinavir and ritonavir are expired?) It (Lopinavir) was only found to be effective in HIV treatment in combination with ritonavir and ABBV only makes/markets the drug as a combo.

Now, I wonder why this info is not known in the medical community outside of China. Of course doctors do not have time to read the Web :), but maybe this drug is in short supply, hence the desire not to share info?
 
Perhaps the FDA could direct the pertinent pharmaceutical companies to ramp up production of the drugs and to distribute them on a "compassionate need" basis, with some type of regulation or legislation to exempt them from liability suits. Get these drugs in the field ASAP.

I’m pretty sure something like this was done to assist the development of an H1N1 vaccine or treatment, just can’t find a reference. Congress may have also contributed some funding.
 
Would have been nice if they had named the drugs... probably a combination of chloroquine and one of the anti-retrovirus HIV drugs.
So they knew about this therapy for months or more, yet nobody set up a quckie clinical trial? Makes me skeptical about the efficacy. Maybe if the onion is peeled back the emperor has no clothes (to mix a metaphor for added fun).
 
I understand why some of you are having your online grocery orders cancelled. I browsed Walmart at 7 AM today. I've never seen so many people in there at that hour, but it wasn't crowded. There were no more disinfectant wipes at the entrance to wipe down the cart, but they did have that foaming hand sanitizer in the big dispenser. Another customer offered to give me one of her wipes that she'd brought in a sandwich bag. I thanked her and declined. Then she laughed when I pumped out some foam and smeared it all over the cart handle. Really, I'm touching stuff in the store that's been touched by how many other people already, so I'm not sweating it too much.

Supposedly Walmart (and other grocers) have closed at night to allow the employees to sanitize and stock the shelves. I don't see much evidence of stocking having gone on there. The candy, condiments, stuff that outside vendors deliver, like chips, were pretty well stocked. The vendors were stocking some while I was there. The 2% milk was fully stocked. Refrigerated orange juice. Packaged cookies. Boxed dessert mixes. Some of the produce was full, but no potatoes. Packaged salad mixes, spinach, all sizes, fully stocked. Some ground meat and sausage in the meat counter. Some frozen and fresh seafood of the more expensive variety. Ice cream and pie fully stocked. Frozen breakfast items pretty well stocked. But through the rest of the store, the meat counters, both fresh and frozen, dry goods shelves, freezers, dairy, not so much. The store was entirely empty or mostly empty of many things, including health/beauty/personal care products. YMMV at your Walmart.

There were a few employees picking for the online orders. I didn't think to ask if people would have more success if they allowed substitutions vs. not. When I was using the self-checkout, I overheard an employee tell another customer that Walmart was calling several people off over the last few days. That seems to fly in the face of grocers needing to hire people so desperately to keep their shelves stocked, doesn't it? But from what I saw, they're not getting anything in to stock. Yet. From what I saw, one employee could work overnight to stock the shelves and would probably be sent home early. :( The customer responded loudly, "Well they might as well just close Walmart then!" :facepalm: I wisely resisted the urge to chuck one of the extra large cans of green beans in my cart at her head. (Just kidding. I really didn't have the urge, but you get what I mean. Sure, lets cut people off the little bit of food that's still left on the shelf, lady, starting with you.)

I did have a couple of pleasant interactions with other customers, trying to keep 6 feet between us. Spoke with a woman who said she was a nurse. I told her to keep safe and I think she appreciated that. I helped an elderly lady find the Campbell's condensed tomato soup. (Those cans all look alike and it really is harder to pick out an exact kind when the shelf is mostly empty and it's spread out all over the place.) A couple was walking through the store up and down the aisles, each carrying a cup of coffee, no shopping cart or basket, both wearing gloves. They weren't acting like shoppers at all, more like they were there to observe in some official capacity.

I'll probably go somewhere else in a couple of days, maybe places I don't normally go frequently, and report back on what I observe there, if anyone is interested.

Hey, if Viktor Navorski (Tom Hanks in The Terminal) could survive trapped in an airport eating ketchup packets, so can we! :LOL: And there's mustard, all kinds! Plus hot sauces! (Use sparingly.)
 
Perhaps the FDA could direct the pertinent pharmaceutical companies to ramp up production of the drugs and to distribute them on a "compassionate need" basis, with some type of regulation or legislation to exempt them from liability suits. Get these drugs in the field ASAP.

The FDA's DNA is 100% the opposite of what you suggest. They are a regulator, so they regulate. It was the FDA that required CDC to do two COVID-19 tests on each patient in a time when we had a severe shortage of test kits.
 
The FDA's DNA is 100% the opposite of what you suggest. They are a regulator, so they regulate. It was the FDA that required CDC to do two COVID-19 tests on each patient in a time when we had a severe shortage of test kits.

Then replace the top leadership with people that can follow marching orders. And do it now.
 
If that's all there was to it (keeping kids home would limit exposure), sure.

But that's not all there is to it, there is reasoning behind it, as I and others have said (you are sticking to static models again).

I already covered it, kids will be going to Park District programs for example, how do they get there, (a different group of adults than just the routine bus driver, maybe a different parent takes a group of kids?)? Then they interact with a different group of kids at the program. And there might be several different programs for different interests. Each program could be a different group of kids. So instead of seeing the same classmates everyday, maybe they end up interacting with a much larger group of kids and adults.

And despite the warnings to not have elderly people watch the kids, it's going to happen. And if kids get together at a friend's home to play (they will, some at-home parents will volunteer), those kids are in close contact, and now add an adult or two that the kids would not have had direct contact with. And maybe different parents on different days to spread the "pain"?

I can't say definitively that this will be worse on average, but I don't see how you can be so sure that it won't be worse. There are many, many cases of "unintended consequences", and this every well may be another. Sounds good on the surface, but may may things worse.

-ERD50

After it was announced that schools would be closed for 3 weeks, many places that people would be taking those same kids closed as well, effective the same day. No governor order prompted this, at the time. Libraries, rec centers, etc. It wouldn't surprise me if the order to close movie theaters, trampoline parks, indoor water parks, effective today, wasn't prompted by the same expectation. Yesterday some of those places might already have been overrun with people bringing kids in. The governor has said that facilities have been reaching out to him for more help with limiting crowds to try to comply with the daily-changing suggestions/recommendations-that-soon-become-mandates-because-people-won't-listen. First 100, then 50, now 10?
 
So they knew about this therapy for months or more, yet nobody set up a quckie clinical trial? Makes me skeptical about the efficacy. Maybe if the onion is peeled back the emperor has no clothes (to mix a metaphor for added fun).
Or side effects?

There were early successes in some with SARS, but it was unclear if it was effective on all.

Also, now people who underwent pulse methylprednisolone have continued concern over bone loss.

If there is a choice between living and dying, it may not matter. But if a treatment becomes routine, it needs to be studied.
 
If that's all there was to it (keeping kids home would limit exposure), sure.

But that's not all there is to it, there is reasoning behind it, as I and others have said (you are sticking to static models again).

I already covered it, kids will be going to Park District programs for example, how do they get there, (a different group of adults than just the routine bus driver, maybe a different parent takes a group of kids?)? Then they interact with a different group of kids at the program. And there might be several different programs for different interests. Each program could be a different group of kids. So instead of seeing the same classmates everyday, maybe they end up interacting with a much larger group of kids and adults.

And despite the warnings to not have elderly people watch the kids, it's going to happen. And if kids get together at a friend's home to play (they will, some at-home parents will volunteer), those kids are in close contact, and now add an adult or two that the kids would not have had direct contact with. And maybe different parents on different days to spread the "pain"?

I can't say definitively that this will be worse on average, but I don't see how you can be so sure that it won't be worse. There are many, many cases of "unintended consequences", and this every well may be another. Sounds good on the surface, but may may things worse.

-ERD50
If you want to believe keeping kids in school is the safest route, so be it. Might some kids get sick when they otherwise would not? You can always conceive a scenario where kids are more exposed by not being at a school. Does this apply to 78 million children? That’s the point.

My last post on this, static or not.
 
gwraigty Your Walmart report is interesting, the opposite of what I expected.
I expected you would see fully stocked shelves ready for another sellout day $$$$$$$.

I thought I'd see more there than I did, at least in some areas.

DD told me this morning that she read about an elderly couple in their 80s who waited in a parking lot for 45 minutes for someone to come by their car because they were afraid to go in the grocery store to shop. :( Finally someone did and they asked the person if they'd be willing to go inside and do their shopping for them because they had no family close by to help them. The person did and it worked out well for them, but that's a heck of a thing to have to resort to. Some stores are opening early just for the elderly, but that's not too widespread yet. I wonder if it wouldn't eventually be self-defeating.
 
So they knew about this therapy for months or more, yet nobody set up a quckie clinical trial? Makes me skeptical about the efficacy. Maybe if the onion is peeled back the emperor has no clothes (to mix a metaphor for added fun).

Maybe they don't bother to try because of their skepticism? If one reads the article, it's the same anti-HIV drugs that the Chinese used, and the Australians are now raving about.

If the patients are going to die anyway, what would be lost by trying what others have reported good results with?

What I wonder about is any side effect, and this is answered by the same article that AnotherReader quoted.

Dr. Ishwar Gilada, President, AIDS Society of India (the largest professional body of physicians and researchers in HIV care), and Governing Council Member, International AIDS Society, had written to the union health minister to use anti-retroviral drugs in the treatment of COVID-19. He told DH that the second line of ARV drugs can be used for treatment as they cost less and have no side effects.

"ARV drugs Lopinavir-Ritonavir combo, as well as chloroquine and zinc, would cost less than Rs. 2,000."

2000 rupees is US$28.
 
gwraigty Your Walmart report is interesting, the opposite of what I expected.
I expected you would see fully stocked shelves ready for another sellout day $$$$$$$.

We were told by a friend of who is a part-timer working at our nearby Trader Joe's that there were 80 people waiting for the store to open yesterday morning. In less than an hour after the doors opened the store racked up $14K in sales and mostly empty shelves were left for those, like DW & I, who arrived later. She was appalled at the hoarding that was taking place.
 
I am one who never wants to try herbal medicine and anything unproven like that.

But I am surprised that people would express skepticism when doctors treating patients in the field are reporting that a class of hypertension drugs may aggravate the Covid-19 illness, and that another class should be used. Same with the recommendation of a doctor who is the France health minister to avoid ibuprofen and to use acetaminophen on Covid-19 patients.

They say more data is needed. Well, as for me, if two different drugs can be substituted, and one has been observed to cause an undesirable side effect with another disease, I think I will switch. I will let others try out the other drug to see for themselves. :)
 
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If you want to believe keeping kids in school is the safest route, so be it. Might some kids get sick when they otherwise would not? You can always conceive a scenario where kids are more exposed by not being at a school. Does this apply to 78 million children? That’s the point.

My last post on this, static or not.

Well that's just as well, since you don't even seem to be reading the posts you are responding to.

Every one of my posts on this was filled "maybes". I never said that keeping kids in is school is the safest route, you put those words in my mouth (post?). I,m merely questioning it. There is a big difference, and we should be questioning all actions. We won't get them all right, but we should be trying.

But I don't think it's a slam dunk that keeping kids out of school will be better. As I said, maybe, maybe not.

From an earlier post:

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Yes, but if they are taking part in a bunch of various activities instead (and being kids, they'll end up in close contact), and coming into contact a larger group of adults than they normally would, it might (or might not) be worse.

I don't "want to believe" anything. I want to see where the data leads us.

-ERD50
 
She was appalled at the hoarding that was taking place.
So DW and I are good for two weeks. The theory being when it hits (which it did), the hoarders would take over, and then they'd burn out and after two weeks, things should be resupplied.

But, will it roll out that way? Will the hoarders just re-hoard and get 1 year's worth of stuff?

Damn people. Respect each other...
 
I suspect that closing early has more to do with protecting the shelf stockers than helping the public. I know I wouldn’t want to spend the night in a grocery store with crowds milling around.

I went to a Walmart at 1 AM a few days ago. It was not vey crowded but I left when I saw only 2 open registers with a line of 4 or 5 at each. All of the self checkouts were closed.
 
Anyone else cancelling non-urgent medical appts and considering virtual health?

We received an email from FloridaBlue strongly encouraging virtual visits, and saying that soon they will be making it a $0 co-pay for such Teladoc visits while coronavirus is an issue. We plan to take this route for a non-emergent issue DH has. And, he just cancelled an non-emergency follow-up visit for tomorrow, too.
 
Went to Walmart around 7:20am. The shelves are basically empty. No paper products, lots of food supplies cleared out. Was able to get some frozen vegetables. The supermarket was super busy for 7:30am with a long line. Picked up 10lbs of flour and yeast, now i can make bread.
 
Anyone else cancelling non-urgent medical appts and considering virtual health?

We received an email from FloridaBlue strongly encouraging virtual visits, and saying that soon they will be making it a $0 co-pay for such Teladoc visits while coronavirus is an issue. We plan to take this route for a non-emergent issue DH has. And, he just cancelled an non-emergency follow-up visit for tomorrow, too.
Yes, I cancelled my checkup next week in order to avoid the exposure; I'm in very good shape and can wait 3 to 6 months or more. Not point in exposing myself to a lot of sick people, our county has the highest number of cases in our state.
 
Anyone else cancelling non-urgent medical appts and considering virtual health?

We received an email from FloridaBlue strongly encouraging virtual visits, and saying that soon they will be making it a $0 co-pay for such Teladoc visits while coronavirus is an issue. We plan to take this route for a non-emergent issue DH has. And, he just cancelled an non-emergency follow-up visit for tomorrow, too.

I had a visit via video conferencing with my Pulmonologist . I do have a check up with my primary doctor for thursday but I will cancel that one.
 
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