Here’s Hoping the Peak is Apr 15!

[FIREd]

The thing with the peak is that we'll know it happened only after the fact. We were supposed to reach the peak last week in my area, and it seems like there is a plateau forming. But the numbers have not yet declined significantly and there is still a lot of noise in the daily stats. It's impossible to know for now whether the worst is over.

Austria is planning to reopen for business after Easter, while keeping some rules in place, so we'll see how it goes.

 

[RonBoyd]

I tend to agree with Jim Cramer... well, in this case.

“You just have to beat the thing. You have to take the hit and beat the thing, because as great as it is to get the economy moving again, you can’t create demand if you’re afraid of getting sick,” Cramer told me. “It doesn’t matter when you say America’s open for business, I think we’re going to be scared to do things.”
...
But when thinking about how business should respond to the economic coronavirus crisis, he starts to sound like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. “When this thing’s over, I mean, I think everybody who is wealthy has to do something. And if you’re not, then shame on you,” he told me. “Sacrifice. We talk about sacrifice, and it’s like, ‘Hey, I do sacrifice, I pay my taxes.’ Oh, screw that,” he continued, eventually concluding, “Well, you’re a rich idiot.”

https://www.vox.com/business-and-fi...ramer-interview-cnbc-stock-market-coronavirus

 

[dd564]

I feel like we locked down pretty early in the game, so I'm hoping our peak comes sooner. We are ranking A for staying at home which should help.

I think our Governor is going to stay ultra-cautious on this.

Discussions of the 2nd wave will be the next step.


Nationwide, the "going back to work" will be a phased approach, I am sure. And then if things start to escalate to quickly, immediate lockdown again.

 

[RonBoyd]

Somewhat related: https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020...-lose-454-billion-on-its-wall-street-bailout/

Savannah Guthrie, opened the interview by noting that one writer had said that the Fed can simply conjure money out of thin air. (It can.) Guthrie asked Powell if there was any limit to the amount of money the Fed was willing to put into the economy to keep it afloat. Her question should have been: is there any limit to the amount of money the Fed will conjure out of thin air to keep Wall Street afloat?

Powell said this:

“In certain circumstances like the present, we do have the ability to essentially use our emergency lending authorities and the only limit on that will be how much backstop we get from the Treasury Department. We’re required to get full security for our loans so that we don’t lose money. So the Treasury puts up money as we estimate what the losses might be…Effectively $1 of loss absorption of backstop from Treasury is enough to support $10 of loans.”

Powell was forced to do damage control on Thursday because White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow had let the cat out of the bag at a press briefing the Tuesday evening prior that Main Street would be getting less than $2 trillion from the stimulus bill while the Fed would be getting $4 trillion as a result of its ability to leverage its share of the stimulus money, making this actually a $6 trillion stimulus bill. When the final stimulus bill was signed, the Fed got $454 billion of taxpayer money to cover its losses, which it can thus leverage up to $4.54 trillion to buy up the toxic debt that is exploding all over Wall Street.

 

[ivinsfan]

I think our Governor is going to stay ultra-cautious on this.

Discussions of the 2nd wave will be the next step.


Nationwide, the "going back to work" will be a phased approach, I am sure. And then if things start to escalate to quickly, immediate lockdown again.

I don't disagree but I was talking about the actual peak date....I had a friend test last week, he turned out negative but the turn around time on his test was Monday late AM to Friday early AM...not bad IMO so we see less tests from a week or two age which helps in real time forecasting..

 

[brewer12345]

Can someone explain how we get to everyone back at work without a vaccine? I do not understand the leap being made. Let's pretend that the peak is hit by end of April and cases decline through the end of May. Aside from those with proven antibodies? How does anyone else go back to work without running the risk of getting sick and helping ignite a second wave? Maybe I am missing something fundamental, but I do not see it.

 

[ivinsfan]

Can someone explain how we get to everyone back at work without a vaccine? I do not understand the leap being made. Let's pretend that the peak is hit by end of April and cases decline through the end of May. Aside from those with proven antibodies? How does anyone else go back to work without running the risk of getting sick and helping ignite a second wave? Maybe I am missing something fundamental, but I do not see it.

That's above my paygrade but I thought the idea is too flatten the curve with the knowledge that unless we want to shut down the entire country for months at a time, the best we can do is stretch things out so everyone can get medical care. What else can be done?

 

[jollystomper]

I suspect any loosening of the current "stay-at-home" directives will be slow, and will likely make mandatory the use of masks for a while.

May and June tend to be peak for have graduations (not all have been cancelled) and weddings, and Memorial Day weekend is a "traditional" start for vacations and amusement parks. A perfect scenario to start a second wave. I do not see restrictions being fully loosened until sometime after June.

 

[timo2]

Can someone explain how we get to everyone back at work without a vaccine? I do not understand the leap being made. Let's pretend that the peak is hit by end of April and cases decline through the end of May. Aside from those with proven antibodies? How does anyone else go back to work without running the risk of getting sick and helping ignite a second wave? Maybe I am missing something fundamental, but I do not see it.

+1.

no immunity. no vaccine. no antibody testing.

it doesn't matter what is open, people won't go. and if they do, there will be more waves of infections.

Plus the charts make certain assumptions about who is staying in home in the 90% of the country under those orders. There could easily be more outbreaks in many parts of the country that think they are off-the-hook.

 

[brewer12345]

That's above my paygrade but I thought the idea is too flatten the curve with the knowledge that unless we want to shut down the entire country for months at a time, the best we can do is stretch things out so everyone can get medical care. What else can be done?

Nothing else can be done, but the market seems to be ignoring the fact that just because we get past the peak and infections decline doesn't mean that we can all get back to being workers and consumers. I don't understand how the shutdown does not continue given that we are unlikely to eradicate this fully and it can reignite fast.

 

[Midpack]

That's above my paygrade but I thought the idea is too flatten the curve with the knowledge that unless we want to shut down the entire country for months at a time, the best we can do is stretch things out so everyone can get medical care. What else can be done?

That’s the thinking as I understand it too. Hopefully antibody tests will help us know who can return relatively safely. Herd immunity. Elderly and underlying health issue people will have to stay at home longer.

I can’t imagine the damage to the economy if we stay in lockdown 12 to 18 months for a vaccine. I’m worried if this goes 6 months without phasing in back to work as some estimates put it.

 

[ivinsfan]

+1.

no immunity. no vaccine. no antibody testing.

it doesn't matter what is open, people won't go. and if they do, there will be more waves of infections.

Plus the charts make certain assumptions about who is staying in home in the 90% of the country under those orders. There could easily be more outbreaks in many parts of the country that think they are off-the-hook.

It's not possible to lock everyone up until it's over...does it make sense to keep DisneyWorld closed, yes. But at some point things will start to open up.. if you are at high risk you might self isolate longer. Most people will have a mild/moderate case of the flu, plus your doc might be able to call in an RX to lighten your symptoms

 

[ivinsfan]

Nothing else can be done, but the market seems to be ignoring the fact that just because we get past the peak and infections decline doesn't mean that we can all get back to being workers and consumers. I don't understand how the shutdown does not continue given that we are unlikely to eradicate this fully and it can reignite fast.

I didn't realize you were referring to the markets. I don't understand how the shutdown can continue until every last person has been protected or infected without wreaking life in the US as we know it.

 

[timo2]

Nothing else can be done, but the market seems to be ignoring the fact that just because we get past the peak and infections decline doesn't mean that we can all get back to being workers and consumers. I don't understand how the shutdown does not continue given that we are unlikely to eradicate this fully and it can reignite fast.

The answer depends upon a person's worldview. And this is where the big fight will be: Do people exist to serve the economy, or does the economy exist to serve people? For the former concept, as long as the medical system is not overwhelmed it doesn't matter who gets sick, there will be replacement workers. So once the charts say the infected can all be treated, and the deceased properly removed, then it's back to work for everyone. For the latter concept, everyone will just hide-out as much as possible until modern medicine comes up with some coping tools like treatments or vaccines. It will be interesting to see what the middle ground looks like.

 

[gwraigty]

How long is the government willing to pay people not to be able to work?

 

[ivinsfan]

How long is the government willing to pay people not to be able to work?

That a two edged question because some people are out there working getting regular pay and some people are at home and out of harms way getting paid.by Uncle Sam.

In the spirit of mutual well being and sacrifice these two things can coexist peacefully for awhile but at some the point the people putting it all on the line for virtually the same money as the people staying home are not going to be happy and I don't blame them.

We're in between, isolating personally but having hundreds of acres of corn to plant. We need all our supporting players to stay working and sometimes we will have to interact with them face to face, that's just the way it is.

 

[MRG]

Can someone explain how we get to everyone back at work without a vaccine? I do not understand the leap being made. Let's pretend that the peak is hit by end of April and cases decline through the end of May. Aside from those with proven antibodies? How does anyone else go back to work without running the risk of getting sick and helping ignite a second wave? Maybe I am missing something fundamental, but I do not see it.

+2

Makes no sense to me either. Maybe I'm gunshy as my great grandparents died in the second and third waves of a 1890s flu. I imagine they felt relieved when they didn't get sick in the first wave..

I my mind nothing changed to warrant any optimistic views.

 

[audreyh1]

I tend to agree with Jim Cramer... well, in this case.




https://www.vox.com/business-and-fi...ramer-interview-cnbc-stock-market-coronavirus

Yeah - to me he’s absolutely right about beating the virus is really the only game.

 

[audreyh1]

Nothing else can be done, but the market seems to be ignoring the fact that just because we get past the peak and infections decline doesn't mean that we can all get back to being workers and consumers. I don't understand how the shutdown does not continue given that we are unlikely to eradicate this fully and it can reignite fast.

For the last few years this has been a see no evil (i.e. ignore bad news) market to me. Just more of the same giddiness - wishing and hoping for the absolute best outcome.

 

[ivinsfan]

Yeah - to me he’s absolutely right about beating the virus is really the only game.

I actually read this and yes Mr K was talking from his family's beach house. He's in no danger of standing on a bread line.

Of course we want to beat this virus...but it seems self serving for me say to myself I can stay home and wait it out, but I want those dudes at Walmart to keep picking my online grocery orders. I don't know the right answer but "beating" the virus can have a lot of different answers to different people.

As we sit here today everyone can't stay home or we wouldn't eat or have medical care.

 

[RonBoyd]

Makes no sense to me either. Maybe I'm gunshy as my great grandparents died in the second and third waves of a 1890s flu. I imagine they felt relieved when they didn't get sick in the first wave.

Me too. I lost my Great Grandmother, who was sure she was out of danger, to the 1918 Flu epidemic.

Let me repeat what Cramer said: "as great as it is to get the economy moving again, you can’t create demand if you’re afraid of getting sick. ... It doesn’t matter when you say America’s open for business, I think we’re going to be scared to do things."

That is me he is speaking of. It will be awhile until I, personally, am willing to "get out there" -- I plan on waiting until the smoke is completely cleared.

 

[Midpack]

How have China, South Korea and Taiwan handled restarting their economies. China seems to have been successful (chart below) in reopening some businesses with restrictions in mid-Feb (2/20?) and has a plan to phase in more as they learn more and manage health care resources. Maybe we can learn from those who’ve gone before us and adapt to our circumstances? Staying in lockdown until this is totally eradicated is just as mindless as saying we should reopen everything shortly after the peaks. There will be tradeoffs we have to make.

And for those who say you can’t trust others data, we still haven’t tested as many people as we need to so our numbers are understated.

 

[RonBoyd]

And this to add to the mix. Was it human to animal? and all that implies... imagine "stay home" dogs and house cats.

The 4-year-old Malayan tiger named Nadia — and six other tigers and lions that have also fallen ill — are believed to have been infected [with coronavirus] by a zoo employee who wasn't yet showing symptoms, the zoo said.

https://www.9news.com/article/news/...Mdfm9nx5mlOeJPo5BkwplSCFQq5wMEq5USelHO5_O6X9Q

 

[RonBoyd]

Ibut I want those dudes at Walmart to keep picking my online grocery orders.

Which may not be for much longer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/06/supermarket-workers-deaths-coronavirus-/

 

[ivinsfan]

Which may not be for much longer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/06/supermarket-workers-deaths-coronavirus-/

Yes you just made my point for me...it's not a stretch to see its a problem for us to say it's OK for the ones we need to stay out there working, I'm waiting till this stuff is all over....