Lots of good news today

[Aerides]

I don’t think that news report made it into our forum discussions.


We have reasonably good macro date. The State of Florida reports daily on cases, deaths, testing. I look at a 7 day average, which evens out the daily reporting unevenness.

This is important for all metrics and all states - for months now, it's been repeatedly demonstrated that single-day figures are wonky, due to lags, spikes, and backlogs in reporting. Sundays always look kinda light, Tuesdays usually extra grim, due to weekend effects. And holidays impact things further, etc.

So just as any single low isn't "good news guys!" a single terrible day isn't "oh my look at that trend" and I think most everyone here understands that by now.

 

[bhoferp]

Lots of people working on vaccines, antivirals, and treatments: https://www.bio.org/policy/human-health/vaccines-biodefense/coronavirus/pipeline-tracker.

 

[Ronstar]

Ok, it seems like lots of companies could successfully develop vaccines. If several vaccines become available at the same time, how are we to know which one to get? Or will the US government select a single provider?

 

[brewer12345]

Ok, it seems like lots of companies could successfully develop vaccines. If several vaccines become available at the same time, how are we to know which one to get? Or will the US government select a single provider?

Easy: none of them. Who wants a rushed, ineffective, potentially dangerous vaccine?

 

[Ronstar]

Easy: none of them. Who wants a rushed, ineffective, potentially dangerous vaccine?

Not me - Once vaccines hit the streets, I plan to wait a while. Just curious if everyone that wants to sell a vaccine is going to be allowed to. Doing all these trials in a rush is bound to lead to some missteps.

 

[brewer12345]

Not me - Once vaccines hit the streets, I plan to wait a while. Just curious if everyone that wants to sell a vaccine is going to be allowed to. Doing all these trials in a rush is bound to lead to some missteps.

The FDA laid out relaxed requirements for approval. No doubt all that stagger over the finish line will be hailed as winners.

 

[Breedlove]

Friends of ours a few weeks ago got the virus . Now these are serious people , they always wore a mask . But a lady in the neighborhood posted on FB she was looking for a rollater to help her walk. My friend ran it over to her house , 4 days later the lady called to tell them she tested positive.
Our friends went tp get tested . Yep they had it The husband got a headache and lots of congestion . his wife pretty much the same . neither got a fever .
All in All my friend has said that is a get out of jail card for them so they are getting the motor home out next week.

 

[Montecfo]

And even more good vaccine news

Moderna this evening reported that in its early stage trial, its potential coronavirus vaccine elicited neutralizing antibodies on all 45 participants.

This drives optimism that the vaccine may prove to be effective against coronavirus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-produced-robust-immune-response-in-all-patients.html

 

[brewer12345]

Moderna this evening reported that in its early stage trial, its potential coronavirus vaccine elicited neutralizing antibodies on all 45 participants.

This drives optimism that the vaccine may prove to be effective against coronavirus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-produced-robust-immune-response-in-all-patients.html

Basically proves almost nothing. They have a long road between this announcement and a vaccine.

 

[RobbieB]

Wait a minute, I thought this was the good news thread?

 

[MichaelB]

Debating a potential or hypothetical vaccine doesn’t lead to any actionable conclusion, it makes no sense to argue. The filing cabinet of health treatments and cures overflows with announcements that looked good but never made it to prime time.

Nothing wrong with an effort to highlight the progress of work being done on treatments and cures.

 

[explanade]

Moderna this evening reported that in its early stage trial, its potential coronavirus vaccine elicited neutralizing antibodies on all 45 participants.

This drives optimism that the vaccine may prove to be effective against coronavirus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-produced-robust-immune-response-in-all-patients.html

Basically proves almost nothing. They have a long road between this announcement and a vaccine.

One thing which might be of interest to people here, the data is for people 18-55 years old. They did have older people injected but that data will come out later.

There were some side effects observed, chills, muscle and headaches, fatigue among over 50% of those vaccinated. Then among those who received a second vaccination as part of a middle dose, 40% had fever.

 

[audreyh1]

I don’t think that news report made it into our forum discussions.


We have reasonably good macro date. The State of Florida reports daily on cases, deaths, testing. I look at a 7 day average, which evens out the daily reporting unevenness.

Yeah, Florida positivity rate has been trending above 10%, if not well above. But until they clean up some of these reporting fiascos, it’s going to be hard to know.

 

[Markola]

Basically proves almost nothing. They have a long road between this announcement and a vaccine.

We’re all studying this thing for ourselves as lay people and I’m afraid I’m not fully on the vaccine bandwagon. Sorry to be a bummer but the movie Contagion is not real life. How many billions have been spent for decades with zero success on finding a vaccine for HIV? Many common colds are corona viruses and there’s no vaccine for them. Flu shots kinda work sometimes as the bug evolves constantly. On the other hand, what do I know? I have no medical training.

 

[audreyh1]

We’re all studying this thing for ourselves as lay people and I’m afraid I’m not fully on the vaccine bandwagon. Sorry to be a bummer but the movie Contagion is not real life. How many billions have been spent for decades with zero success on finding a vaccine for HIV? Many common colds are corona viruses and there’s no vaccine for them. Flu shots kinda work sometimes as the bug evolves constantly. On the other hand, what do I know? I have no medical training.

Yes, I’ve been getting quite an education these past 6 months! But I’m not so skeptical about a vaccine, as expert virologists and infectious disease experts like Fauci still seem to be encouraged. Also, apparently the virus changes very little, so we might not have to deal with variants. It’s more the human immune response that concerns me - needing repeated vaccinations perhaps, and the fact that animals can catch the virus so it’s not exclusive to humans and probably can’t be eradicated.

I’m also concerned about vaccine safety and side-effects. It’s going to be a long time for availability to me regardless.

 

[Helen]

Friends of ours a few weeks ago got the virus . Now these are serious people , they always wore a mask . But a lady in the neighborhood posted on FB she was looking for a rollater to help her walk. My friend ran it over to her house , 4 days later the lady called to tell them she tested positive.
Our friends went tp get tested . Yep they had it The husband got a headache and lots of congestion . his wife pretty much the same . neither got a fever .
All in All my friend has said that is a get out of jail card for them so they are getting the motor home out next week.

Do you know how long the friend was over at the house and whether s/he was wearing a mask? I'm curious as to how much contact there was to cause the infection.

 

[Breedlove]

He said they were at the ladies house less then two hours , they were not wearing masks .

 

[Out of Steam]

Easy: none of them. Who wants a rushed, ineffective, potentially dangerous vaccine?

If a major country other than the US approves a vaccine, including the specific production site, I'm willing to take it. But, given the hollowing out and politicization of the US Government, I'm hesitant to rely on the FDA alone.

 

[Montecfo]

We’re all studying this thing for ourselves as lay people and I’m afraid I’m not fully on the vaccine bandwagon. Sorry to be a bummer but the movie Contagion is not real life. How many billions have been spent for decades with zero success on finding a vaccine for HIV? Many common colds are corona viruses and there’s no vaccine for them. Flu shots kinda work sometimes as the bug evolves constantly. On the other hand, what do I know? I have no medical training.

A vaccine is not assured. But the path to a vaccine will include a series of successful trials. So far, so good.

Better treatments, of which we already have some with remdesivir and Math+, for example, have happened and I expect there will be more positive developments.

A vaccine is not a requirement. We need effective treatments that lessen severity and lethality. A vaccine would be icing on the cake.

 

[Markola]

A vaccine is not assured. But the path to a vaccine will include a series of successful trials. So far, so good.



Better treatments, of which we already have some with remdesivir and Math+, for example, have happened and I expect there will be more positive developments.



A vaccine is not a requirement. We need effective treatments that lessen severity and lethality. A vaccine would be icing on the cake.

I agree. That’s where we are with HIV after 30+ years and many billions of dollars. Treatment.

 

[mpeirce]

How many billions have been spent for decades with zero success on finding a vaccine for HIV?

FYI- HIV is a very very different kind of thing than a corona virus. It infects immune system cells which is one big reason a "regular" vaccine doesn't work against it.

 

[Markola]

Fair enough. Are there any vaccines that work against corona viruses? Here, I Googled an answer to my own question, and the answer is, unfortunately, no. https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...sible-to-produce-scientists-covid-2020-4?op=1

 

[Clone]

On the other hand, what do I know? I have no medical training.

Have you considered a career as a politician? Or perhaps a product spokesman?

We would all like to have definitive answers to many questions, and solutions to many of these problems. Unfortunately, there are few quick, easy, and correct answers. But there is demand for folks to claim that they have the solutions, or to throw shade on folks that either don't have the solutions they want or those folks who simply say 'we don't know' or 'we were wrong'.

I sometimes wonder if humanity is just too stupid to survive this.

 

[unclemick]

Successfully delivered an orange tabby kitten? 8 weeks to new owner - college senior/yoga teacher about 40 minutes drive from here. They bonded and both are happy. One smiling and they other purring.

Back story - about 4 days ago in small back yard kept hearing cat meows. Finally traced it just over the fence to the neighbors driveway. Under the hood of his Toyota. He escaped and hid in the bushes and Pampas grass alongside our house. DW wife coxed him out over the next two days and he moved onto the back porch.
No hits of his picture on the neighborhood lost pet app. Cousin in college town near here showed the picture to her yoga teacher - instant hit.

So morning trip to vet - they come out to car. Checked out healthy, guess 8 weeks old, male, a few fleas but not bad. Afternoon took a drive in his new/used cat carrier and had a wonderful visit to meet new owner.

heh heh heh - masked and social distanced of course.

 

[Montecfo]

Studies find pre-existing Covid immune reactivity

Several referenced studies suggest some disease resistance may exist in the general population, prior to any exposure to Covid19. This may have implications for disease severity, herd immunity and vaccine development. It is an intriguing slice of good news, but more work to do.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z