Super-spreader Situations

[retire-early]

He seems to be one of the more pessimistic epidemiologists.

Unfortunately, his pessimisim is not inconsistent with people's actions and thought patterns up to now. I am frankly very pessimistic.

Rural America is next : https://www.healthline.com/health-news/rural-america-hardest-hit-by-covid-19-outbreak.

There is an article from earlier this summer. https://theconversation.com/rural-america-is-more-vulnerable-to-covid-19-than-cities-are-and-its-starting-to-show-140532

 

[meierlde]

It’s easy to socially distance on a golf course if you aren’t sharing carts.

Also the big feature of golf courses is that they are outside where ventilating systems are provided courtesy of the wind/breeze,

 

[explanade]

I just don’t get why people go ahead with these large weddings, etc., ignoring the risks to their guests.

I do observe that even if they had limited it to 50 attendees the outcome would have probably been about the same or just slightly less worse.

There was an article about a San Francisco wedding.

It took place at a Catholic church despite the city's restrictions. Their wedding party size was much greater than allowed.

But the church put signs in the garage to bring in guests by a side entrance because they knew City investigators were trying to check on them.

From their side, the couple had planned wedding for months and it was to take place in April or something and they saw an opening to try to hold it in July.

They flew in people from all over the country. Several of them got infected and took it back.

In the days following, the newlywed couple and at least eight attendees tested positive for the coronavirus, two guests told The Chronicle.

The potentially exposed guests flew back to Nashville, Arizona and San Diego, hot spots of the pandemic, potentially spreading the virus and providing a textbook example of health officials’ biggest fears about such large gatherings. The event showed the challenges authorities face in enforcing health orders.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea...health-rules-for-a-storybook-San-15434220.php

The couple had planned it for a long time, was suppose to be their "dream" wedding, so they were going to go through with it despite the pandemic.

 

[retire-early]

There was an article about a San Francisco wedding.

It took place at a Catholic church despite the city's restrictions. Their wedding party size was much greater than allowed.

But the church put signs in the garage to bring in guests by a side entrance because they knew City investigators were trying to check on them.

From their side, the couple had planned wedding for months and it was to take place in April or something and they saw an opening to try to hold it in July.

They flew in people from all over the country. Several of them got infected and took it back.



https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea...health-rules-for-a-storybook-San-15434220.php

The couple had planned it for a long time, was suppose to be their "dream" wedding, so they were going to go through with it despite the pandemic.

Have to wonder who infected whom.

Did a guest bring it in?
Not that it matters because people became infected but always curious about the chain of infection.

.

 

[explanade]

South Korea has had a spike in new corona virus cases.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...-coronavirus-cases-march-200819061419765.html

Apparently some churches are defiant there about holding large indoor services.


Same with this LA megachurch, which takes in an estimated $10 million a year.

They sued CA to lift restrictions against indoor services:

"The complaint states that the American people have begun to see that they are being cheated by their own government," said the statement from the society, a nonprofit religious liberty group.

“They have witnessed how the onerous restrictions imposed on them by public officials to allegedly fight the COVID-19 pandemic simply do not apply to certain, favored groups," the statement said. "When many went to the streets to engage in ‘political protests’ against ‘racism’ and ‘police brutality,’ these protestors refused to comply with the pandemic restrictions. Instead of enforcing the public health orders, public officials were all too eager to grant a de facto exception for these favored protestors.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...county-hold-indoor-services-l-county-n1236731

LA County considered imposing fines of $1000 a day but probably not much of a financial deterrent.

Church has recently held indoor services of thousands of people. They are not interested in outdoor services.

 

[JoeWras]

That would be the first question on my hospital intake form. "Did you go to Sturgis?" If yes, go directly back home, you get no treatment. I hope it was worth it to you.

Would you also deny cancer treatment to smokers? I could go on... Medicine shouldn't work that way, as ugly as these people are.

I hope you are joking.

 

[Chuckanut]

Would you also deny cancer treatment to smokers? I could go on... Medicine shouldn't work that way, as ugly as these people are.

I hope you are joking.

I agree with you, overall.

But, let's take it one step further....

Let' assume you own a business whose operation makes social distancing difficult to do. Suppose the Sturgis participant worked in your business. Would you let him come to work and possibly infect you and your employees? Even if you would take the risk, suppose one or more of you employees object to his presence, what would you do? What if your customers found out he was at Sturgis 4 days ago and refused to do business with you?

 

[JoeWras]

I agree with you, overall.

But, let's take it one step further....

Let' assume you own a business whose operation makes social distancing difficult to do. Suppose the Sturgis participant worked in your business. Would you let him come to work and possibly infect you and your employees? Even if you would take the risk, suppose one or more of you employees object to his presence, what would you do? What if your customers found out he was at Sturgis 4 days ago and refused to do business with you?

I see no problem with a business asking an employee to stay home for a quarantine period, or hit the highway permanently. (At least in my "at will" state.)

Medicine is different. I don't want to derail the thread, so I won't give an example. You can only imagine all the scenarios of "bad behavior" in one person's eyes creating a denial that is fine in other peoples' eyes.

 

[harllee]

In my college town the students will not stop partying. University of North Carolina has gone all online for classes and the dorms have been shut for most students but I think most of the students just moved off campus. The police were called for 10 parties last weekend (under the NC Covid rules there is a limit of 10 people inside and 25 outside for gatherings). The police gave out many criminal citations for violating the Covid rules. At one fraternity they had taped black plastic over the windows but the police could hear the party inside. The police finally got them to open the door and 50 students were inside.
Another fraternity hired a "party bus" so they could sneak out of town but they were seen and a video was sent to the police who were waiting when the "party bus" rolled back into town. In addition to the Covid violation there was underage drinking.

I know college kids are not fully mature but this is ridiculous, it is like they are just defying
authority. Maybe they want all us oldsters to get sick and die.

 

[JoeWras]

In my college town the students will not stop partying. University of North Carolina has gone all online for classes and the dorms have been shut for most students but I think most of the students just moved off campus. The police were called for 10 parties last weekend (under the NC Covid rules there is a limit of 10 people inside and 25 outside for gatherings). The police gave out many criminal citations for violating the Covid rules. At one fraternity they had taped black plastic over the windows but the police could hear the party inside. The police finally got them to open the door and 50 students were inside.
Another fraternity hired a "party bus" so they could sneak out of town but they were seen and a video was sent to the police who were waiting when the "party bus" rolled back into town. In addition to the Covid violation there was underage drinking.

I know college kids are not fully mature but this is ridiculous, it is like they are just defying
authority. Maybe they want all us oldsters to get sick and die.

It is college. I was a good kid, but I would probably be on the edge in these times.

I'm very conflicted over all of this. I am glad they have sent the kids home because we knew they would behave badly. harlee, both of us forecasted it on this forum. I am very ticked off to see our state numbers go up after 3 weeks of progress primarily because of the college situation.

On the other hand, I have some fear for the future of freedom. Freedom doesn't mean "doing what I want and spreading virus." I get it. But there are serious roll backs of privacy and rights going on. Some of the shaming on Nextdoor has been nearly criminal. Cashiers making one mistake for 5 minutes (their nose showed) and then getting excoriated by name on Nextdoor, then going viral. That's not right! It is near doxxing.

Liberty, it was good to know ye.

 

[Chuckanut]

In my college town the students will not stop partying. University of North Carolina has gone all online for classes and the dorms have been shut for most students but I think most of the students just moved off campus. The police were called for 10 parties last weekend (under the NC Covid rules there is a limit of 10 people inside and 25 outside for gatherings). The police gave out many criminal citations for violating the Covid rules. At one fraternity they had taped black plastic over the windows but the police could hear the party inside. The police finally got them to open the door and 50 students were inside.
Another fraternity hired a "party bus" so they could sneak out of town but they were seen and a video was sent to the police who were waiting when the "party bus" rolled back into town. In addition to the Covid violation there was underage drinking.

I know college kids are not fully mature but this is ridiculous, it is like they are just defying
authority. Maybe they want all us oldsters to get sick and die.

I need to seriously rethink my idea of moving to a medium sized college town.

 

[timo2]

Regarding golfing, I managed to golf once this year. The checking in part was indoors at the course, and that was not good. Then after we ate on the patio, but had to order indoors. That was not good. The worst part was masks were required when not on the course. But people coming in after their rounds would forget to put their masks on, or put them down around their chins, then walk through the outside dining area. There also were a group of ten or twelve 70 year olds on the other side of the room maskless having a chat-fest. some would put on a mask when the walked away, some would not. But being on the course itself was safe.

I would play golf again but avoid the clubhouse like the plague.

 

[JDARNELL]

That would be the first question on my hospital intake form. "Did you go to Sturgis?" If yes, go directly back home, you get no treatment. I hope it was worth it to you.

It was and is every year. It was good to see Americans enjoying themselves and not bowing to the hysteria. I am on several Sturgis pages and people are commenting they are past their 14 day window. Many did get tested as soon as they got home and reported their negative reports.

 

[Gumby]

It was and is every year. It was good to see Americans enjoying themselves and not bowing to the hysteria. I am on several Sturgis pages and people are commenting they are past their 14 day window. Many did get tested as soon as they got home and reported their negative reports.

My post was (mostly) tongue-in-cheek. If you want to take the risk for yourself, that's your right as a free citizen in a free country. But vowing to refuse quarantine even if you test positive and refusing to cooperate with contact tracers is putting that risk on other people back home. People who did not get a choice as to whether they would be exposed to you. The attendees who got tested when they returned or who self-isolated for 14 days are being responsible. The others are not.

To analogize - if you live way out in the country and want to burn down your own house, I say have at it. If you are my neighbor who lives about 40-50 feet away, I say no, because there is a very high likelihood that you will end up burning my house down too.

 

[audreyh1]

There was an article about a San Francisco wedding.

It took place at a Catholic church despite the city's restrictions. Their wedding party size was much greater than allowed.

But the church put signs in the garage to bring in guests by a side entrance because they knew City investigators were trying to check on them.

From their side, the couple had planned wedding for months and it was to take place in April or something and they saw an opening to try to hold it in July.

They flew in people from all over the country. Several of them got infected and took it back.



https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea...health-rules-for-a-storybook-San-15434220.php

The couple had planned it for a long time, was suppose to be their "dream" wedding, so they were going to go through with it despite the pandemic.

I can only conclude from such a story that these people somehow do not believe the virus is real, or believe that magically their guests are not going to bring the virus or get infected. It really boggles the mind.

 

[harllee]

It is college. I was a good kid, but I would probably be on the edge in these times.

I'm very conflicted over all of this. I am glad they have sent the kids home because we knew they would behave badly. harlee, both of us forecasted it on this forum. I am very ticked off to see our state numbers go up after 3 weeks of progress primarily because of the college situation.

On the other hand, I have some fear for the future of freedom. Freedom doesn't mean "doing what I want and spreading virus." I get it. But there are serious roll backs of privacy and rights going on. Some of the shaming on Nextdoor has been nearly criminal. Cashiers making one mistake for 5 minutes (their nose showed) and then getting excoriated by name on Nextdoor, then going viral. That's not right! It is near doxxing.

Liberty, it was good to know ye.

Joe, I have lived in this college town for years (I went to school here and taught on campus). I normally enjoy all the students and events--even at my age I tailgate and go the the victory parties, etc. I live close to campus and I have never complained about the student parties before, I figure live and let live. But these are very unusual times and for us all to be safe we have to give up some freedoms. Before the students arrived Covid cases in my town were on the decline and I felt safe out and about. Since school restarted there have been about 1000 new Covid cases (in 3 weeks) hospitalizations are up and deaths are starting to creep up. I do not feel safe in my own town anymore. I am holed up in my mountain cabin and I am considering moving away from Chapel Hill (at least temporarily) this winter if things continue as they are. This is all hurting the local businesses too, every day another business closes.
Yes the students have rights but the rest of the population has rights too. If the students had behaved then in person classes would be ongoing and the dorms would be still open. I might note that many of the police citations for the Covid violations also include citations for underage drinking. Alcohol misuse is a big part of the problem. I figure these kids were living at home since last March and their parents made them behave and when they got to college they just went wild.

 

[retire-early]

I see irresponsible behavior every single day looking out my windows.

The children in the neighborhood play together outdoors without masks. The husbands stand around outside several times a week chatting without social distancing and without masks.

Everyone acts as if nothing is different than last summer. You would not know that there is a pandemic going on.

I am guessing that they all think being outdoors makes it okay.

 

[JoeWras]

But these are very unusual times and for us all to be safe we have to give up some freedoms.

Again, I'm conflicted. I just worry about such statements. In the past we've seen that statement taken to extremes and it didn't end well. OK, that's my libertarian conflicted side.

On to my progressive conflicted side.

I get it about Chapel Hill and not wanting to be there. I sure as hell am going nowhere near Franklin St, Hillsboro Ave, or anywhere near Duke.

The freedom roll back in this case is to deny on-campus living. The kids have shown they cannot accept the responsibility, so roll back the privilege. They'll still get their class, just differently.

 

[Chuckanut]

I see irresponsible behavior every single day looking out my windows.

The children in the neighborhood play together outdoors without masks. The husbands stand around outside several times a week chatting without social distancing and without masks.

Everyone acts as if nothing is different than last summer. You would not know that there is a pandemic going on.

I am guessing that they all think being outdoors makes it okay.

Doesn't it? Outside spreading is much harder to do. Sure, I would not stand a foot from somebody and talk with them for 15+ minutes. But, 6 feet away for 10 minutes? That is not very risky when outside. I avoid inside time as much as possible and always wear a mask.

Just how close are these men standing to each other? For how long?
Details matter. That's were the Devil hangs out.

 

[harllee]

Again, I'm conflicted. I just worry about such statements. In the past we've seen that statement taken to extremes and it didn't end well. OK, that's my libertarian conflicted side.

On to my progressive conflicted side.

I get it about Chapel Hill and not wanting to be there. I sure as hell am going nowhere near Franklin St, Hillsboro Ave, or anywhere near Duke.

The freedom roll back in this case is to deny on-campus living. The kids have shown they cannot accept the responsibility, so roll back the privilege. They'll still get their class, just differently.

Joe, the problem is that when they closed the dorms many of the students did not go home--they just moved off campus into apartments. If I were a parent of an 18 year old and the dorm had been closed because of a huge Covid outbreak I would have insisted that my child come home, be tested and quarantine for 14 days.

 

[JoeWras]

Joe, the problem is that when they closed the dorms many of the students did not go home--they just moved off campus into apartments. If I were a parent of an 18 year old and the dorm had been closed because of a huge Covid outbreak I would have insisted that my child come home, be tested and quarantine for 14 days.

Ah, I see. Move in with friends. Sex, alcohol, drugs, free spirits, virus. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[EastWest Gal]

Would you also deny cancer treatment to smokers? I could go on... Medicine shouldn't work that way, as ugly as these people are.

I hope you are joking.

It would also be illegal.

 

[explanade]

Don't they deny liver and other organ transplants to alcoholics and drug addicts?

Or people deemed too old?

 

[JDARNELL]

My post was (mostly) tongue-in-cheek. If you want to take the risk for yourself, that's your right as a free citizen in a free country. But vowing to refuse quarantine even if you test positive and refusing to cooperate with contact tracers is putting that risk on other people back home. People who did not get a choice as to whether they would be exposed to you. The attendees who got tested when they returned or who self-isolated for 14 days are being responsible. The others are not.

To analogize - if you live way out in the country and want to burn down your own house, I say have at it. If you are my neighbor who lives about 40-50 feet away, I say no, because there is a very high likelihood that you will end up burning my house down too.

Nah we are good. I get a kick out of how Sturgis is used as the poster child for not conforming. I think they have traced like 70 cases to the rally and over 460k visitors to the area. Count may go up but pretty good odds. The reality of it was Sturgis was gonna happen with or without the city participating. They did a good job to provide opportunity for people who wanted to wear masks and social social distance or use hand sanitizer. Clearly not everyone did chose this path.

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

August 28 article: Coronavirus Outbreak From Maine Wedding Spreads To Jail, Rehabilitation Center:

A coronavirus outbreak originating from a wedding reception in Maine earlier this month continues to grow. Health officials say cases linked to the event have spread to a rehabilitation center and a jail.

At least 87 coronavirus cases are associated with an outbreak from the Aug. 7 wedding at a church in Millinocket and a reception at the Big Moose Inn, Dr. Nirav Shah, director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said Thursday.

"What concerns me in this situation is the fact that the number of individuals who were affected from that initial setting ... was higher than we would have anticipated," he said during virtual press briefing. "It suggests that there was already community transmission happening in Penobscot County by the attendees, and when they came together, it was kind of like a powder keg that was giving off sparks, and generated a higher-than-expected number of cases." ...