Vaccine Trials

[Gumby]

The Red Cross tests for COVID antibodies when you donate blood. I'm sure they have useful data.

ETA: I don't know how quick or easy the test is, just that they do it.

 

[JoeWras]

The Red Cross tests for COVID antibodies when you donate blood. I'm sure they have useful data.

ETA: I don't know how quick or easy the test is, just that they do it.

I don't give through the Red Cross, I use a regional bank. I'm sure Red Cross is similar.

Last May, it took 10 days to get the antibody results.
Last week, it took 1 day.

So, whatever they are doing, it is fast. And it is all part of the normal testing so there are no extra procedures.

 

[RetireBy90]

No we haven't. And that's why the confirmed cases numbers and the fixation on them is so misleading. I've seen estimates that the actual infections are 6X-10X the confirmed cases. Holman Jenkins Jr. of the WSJ is my prime source of those estimates.

I have heard of several smaller tests of a population for this purpose. Dr Gottlieb said this morning I think it was, said total infected are 8 to 10 times the confirmed numbers. While I don’t know his source(s). I trust what he says as former FDA chief, on the board of 2 major pharma companies, and advising several states on COVID.

 

[kyzymurgist]

If you live in the Midwest, Kroger pharmacy has a 15 minute antibody test for $25. Looks for both IgG and IgM antibodies.

Specificity 99%, selectivity 100%.

 

[gerntz]

I have heard of several smaller tests of a population for this purpose. Dr Gottlieb said this morning I think it was, said total infected are 8 to 10 times the confirmed numbers. While I don’t know his source(s). I trust what he says as former FDA chief, on the board of 2 major pharma companies, and advising several states on COVID.

Thanks. Another voice that the confirmed cases number is meaningless. And that's in line with what I've heard & said above. So 10X x 14M = 140M or 40% of the population. This combined with the vaccine starting yet this month & herd immunity could occur in a few months. Here's hoping.

 

[BigNick]

No we haven't. And that's why the confirmed cases numbers and the fixation on them is so misleading. I've seen estimates that the actual infections are 6X-10X the confirmed cases. Holman Jenkins Jr. of the WSJ is my prime source of those estimates.

If that's the case then North Dakota, where 10.5% of the population has had a confirmed PCR test, most of them in the last two months, is approaching 100% infected. If cases then continue, it means either that (a) even recent infection doesn't confer immunity, or (b) the estimate of 6x-10x is overstated.

 

[Time2]

If that's the case then North Dakota, where 10.5% of the population has had a confirmed PCR test, most of them in the last two months, is approaching 100% infected. If cases then continue, it means either that (a) even recent infection doesn't confer immunity, or (b) the estimate of 6x-10x is overstated.

I noticed ND on a Covid Map a few days ago as having the highest rate in the country. Didn't they have one of the lowest rates for a long time?

 

[JoeWras]

I noticed ND on a Covid Map a few days ago as having the highest rate in the country. Didn't they have one of the lowest rates for a long time?

Yep. They went exponential.

 

[Aerides]

I noticed ND on a Covid Map a few days ago as having the highest rate in the country. Didn't they have one of the lowest rates for a long time?

During the start of things, most of the patterns were among the more densely populated areas, big cities, leading to the assumption that living close and mass transit was needed for major community spread.

Then it moved through the sunbelt when we started going indoors in the summer, regardless of density.

Now, it's all the N/MW areas. ND, SD, IL, MN, WS, the map just keeps moving. ND is so bad that they are reaching herd immunity. SD similar, I read a stat that if the death rate of SD was extrapolated per capita across the US we'd be seeing 20k daily deaths.

What's clear to me at least, is the virus does not care how far we live from one another. It only needs us to get together in small groups for a short time, which is common behavior regardless of demographics.

 

[gerntz]

If that's the case then North Dakota, where 10.5% of the population has had a confirmed PCR test, most of them in the last two months, is approaching 100% infected. If cases then continue, it means either that (a) even recent infection doesn't confer immunity, or (b) the estimate of 6x-10x is overstated.

Fair enough. But that 10% of ND residents are + doesn't mean the estimated 6-10X infected are all in ND.

 

[RetireBy90]

Fair enough. But that 10% of ND residents are + doesn't mean the estimated 6-10X infected are all in ND.

I think the rate is a nationwide estimate with some localities or states have confirmed a greater portion of actual infections and some less. Stats are only somewhat useful when used to better understand changes and rarely useful by themselves.

 

[Time2]

If you live in the Midwest, Kroger pharmacy has a 15 minute antibody test for $25. Looks for both IgG and IgM antibodies.

Specificity 99%, selectivity 100%.

I'm in Fl. I looked up Kroger, don't see any here. Kroger over all must have went through a shake up, I see they only have 37 stores in 10 states. I used to live in Michigan, I thought they had more than 37 stores there!


I looked at Quest Diagnostics, they want $128.30 for the antibody test. Then I checked Medicare, I can get it free through Medicare. Probably won't do that, I don't like spending government money for something I suspect will come back negative. I would like to have my wife tested, as she was sick in Feb. and could have had it. Very unusual for her to be sick, and this lasted about 10 days. However she's not on Medicare. If she was tested and found with antibodies, then I would get the test.

 

[JoeWras]

I'm in Fl. I looked up Kroger, don't see any here. Kroger over all must have went through a shake up, I see they only have 37 stores in 10 states. I used to live in Michigan, I thought they had more than 37 stores there!

They did a reorganization of sorts. When they bought Harris-Teeter, they jettisoned a few stores and rebranded others from Kroger to Harris-Teeter. They did that kind of thing in a few regions.

 

[braumeister]

They did a reorganization of sorts. When they bought Harris-Teeter, they jettisoned a few stores and rebranded others from Kroger to Harris-Teeter. They did that kind of thing in a few regions.

It's the "Kroger family of stores" now.

With nearly 2,800 stores in 35 states under two dozen banners and annual sales of more than 121.1 billion, Kroger today ranks as one of the world’s largest retailers.

• Baker’s
• City Market
• Dillons
• Food 4 Less
• Foods Co
• Fred Meyer
• Fry’s
• Gerbes
• Harris Teeter
• King Soopers
• Jay C Food Store
• Kroger
• Pay-Less Super Markets
• QFC
• Ralphs
• Smith’s Food and Drug

 

[MissMolly]

I'm in Fl. I looked up Kroger, don't see any here. Kroger over all must have went through a shake up, I see they only have 37 stores in 10 states. I used to live in Michigan, I thought they had more than 37 stores there!


I looked at Quest Diagnostics, they want $128.30 for the antibody test. Then I checked Medicare, I can get it free through Medicare. Probably won't do that, I don't like spending government money for something I suspect will come back negative. I would like to have my wife tested, as she was sick in Feb. and could have had it. Very unusual for her to be sick, and this lasted about 10 days. However she's not on Medicare. If she was tested and found with antibodies, then I would get the test.

Have you tried putting your zip code in here to see what stores near you have this available? https://www.kroger.com/rx/guest/antibody

 

[RetireBy90]

Have you tried putting your zip code in here to see what stores near you have this available? https://www.kroger.com/rx/guest/antibody

Thanks for the link. I've never seen a Kroger in northern VA but turns out there were 3 in my area (Zip 20121) within 5-6 miles.

 

[Aerides]

Well this is kinda fun/depressing (appears to be outside the paywall).

Enter a few key data points and you'll find out where you'd be in line for a vaccine...

My results (I'm under 55, no conditions or priorities):

Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States.

When it comes to Florida, we think you’re behind 17.4 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in Palm Beach County, you’re behind 1.2 million others.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html?smid=tw-share

**ETA: this is a simulator, a guestimator, it is not literal, but a rough expectation by a news source, based on current guidance. Consult your local/state news for specifics if you have any concerns with your placement. As always, IRL YMMV**

 

[JoeWras]

I'm 57 and got the same numbers as Aerides. It was fun to snake through the long line and find I'm almost the last guy. Just 4 or 5 behind me. Cool graphic.

 

[MissMolly]

Well this is kinda fun/depressing (appears to be outside the paywall).

Enter a few key data points and you'll find out where you'd be in line for a vaccine...

My results (I'm under 55, no conditions or priorities):

Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States.

When it comes to Florida, we think you’re behind 17.4 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in Palm Beach County, you’re behind 1.2 million others.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html?smid=tw-share

Cool! Here's me:

Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 23.0 million people across the United States.

When it comes to Kentucky, we think you’re behind 295,500 others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in XXXXXX County, you’re behind 2,400 others.

 

[Gumby]

Governor Lamont just had one of his regular COVID briefings and presented the plan for vaccinating people in CT. The order of priority is

1. Health care workers (which includes the people who work in LTC facilities)
2. Residents of LTC facilities.
3. First responders (EMT, Paramedics, etc.)
4. Essential workers with high contact (teachers, bus drivers, etc.)
5. Prison inmates and guards.
6. People over 65 (not already prioritized).
7. People under 65 with risk factors (not already prioritized).
9. People under 18 (not already prioritized).
10. People between 18 and 65 (not already prioritized).

The young wife and I will be in Group 10 and can expect the vaccine in June at the earliest.

 

[braumeister]

Only 36,000 people ahead of me in my county.

 

[harllee]

At age 69 and no health problems I am about one fourth of the way back in the line. DH has health problems so he is about one tenth of the way back. My mother age 88 with health problems is getting pretty close to the front.

I wonder if this formula takes into account about 40% of the people claim they will not take the vaccine. The more people who refuse to take it the farther up the line I go.

 

[Aerides]

I wonder if this formula takes into account about 40% of the people claim they will not take the vaccine. The more people who refuse to take it the farther up the line I go.

Does not appear so given the total population numbers. Seems to assume of those in the US/State/County, this is where you'd be, regardless of actual desire or other... stuff.

 

[sengsational]

I hope they don't let any group "sit on" their allocation. I can imagine they allocate the full amount to a group, and that group is uncoordinated, so months pass with few vaccinations administered. It might be helpful to have a clause that says if you mismanage administration, you go to the end of the line.

 

[MuirWannabe]

I hope they don't let any group "sit on" their allocation. I can imagine they allocate the full amount to a group, and that group is uncoordinated, so months pass with few vaccinations administered. It might be helpful to have a clause that says if you mismanage administration, you go to the end of the line.

Aka, you snooze you lose. It’s a good question about how long they’ll wait to switch from one favored category to the next lower favored category.