PSA test false positive rate 70%?

This is a situation where a statistical approach to public health clashes with the reality that the stats are irrelevant when only one individual is involved.

I agree -- this is what in fact I call "statistical medicine." I am sure that testing all men is economically unsound compared to the outcome costs, but like you the sample size that interests me is ONE.

My first PSA test at 57 scored a 7, earning me a biopsy. I knew I had BPH, and maybe if there'd been an earlier number it wouldn't have been alarming. Biopsy negative, PSA drifted down to 4 over a few years. Another burp a few years later resulted in another negative biopsy, this one with some, umm, undesired results. Started finasteride, which drove PSA down to about 1, where is stays 15 years later. And fixed the BPH.

I didn't notice if anyone mentioned "PSA velocity" which means speed of increase. If your number goes from 1 to 4 over 5 years, that may not be a big deal, but if it happens in one year, you need to retest or reconsider.

Medpack, are you an engineer too? I have an identical chart, and one for cholesterol as well.
 
When I was still under 70, my PSA numbers doubled from one year to the next - the number wasn't in the "red flag" area yet but the fact that it doubled had me in for a biopsy. And the biopsy found cancer - but still contained in the capsule so it could be removed surgically (the prostate was also enlarged).

Would I bother with the PSA test now that I'm over 70 if I still had a prostate? Maybe, as I knew someone in his 40's who never bothered with the PSA and the thing that got him to the doctor was his terrible back pain. The undetected prostate cancer had spread and the best they could do was make him comfortable for his remaining few months - this was someone with kids in elementary school.

I wonder how many of the "no longer recommended" tests are because the insurance companies don't think that finding one case in a thousand tests is a good use of their money (our premiums)?

That's not where they're coming from with this. There are always reasons to do or not do almost any test. And you can always point to this person or that person who caught or dodged the golden b-b because they did or didn't get a test. One doctor gave an extreme example thus. You can eradicate all prostate cancer if you removed the prostate of all newborn baby boys. But of course that would have its own set of problems.

Yes, insurance companies are looking at the big picture and the big numbers and Joe Blow's early onset PC (Think Frank Zappa & Ben Stiller) really doesn't matter to them. But that's not the whole story. The doctor who invented the PSA test, himself, stopped recommending it as a routine screening procedure, at least as it was being pursued at the time. I don't know if it's employment was ever narrowed or refined since then.


Personally I've been seeing urologists yearly since my early 30's for other prostate problems and have gotten a PSA every year except 3 so I am well versed in all-things prostate.
 
Where, in "this" thread", did anyone refer to or recommend using "magic compounds and drugs"? Red herring about the opinions of others on this thread.
Oh, I'm generalizing to include the threads debating various magic compounds and drugs that people are self-prescribing. The stuff found on the OTC shelf at any health food store.
 
Let's see...I was putting along at 4.8 and one test came back as 16.4. After the Dr. stopped stammering, he suggested we do it again in 6 months. That test was back to 4.8, so "no problem". Still doing OK.
 
PSA is an indicator, not a definitive answer

I had elevated PSA at 54, after 4 years of steadily rising scores. Doc wanted me to see Urologist, and we scheduled a biopsy. To our surprise, 6 out of 12 samples showed cancer. Discussed options, and ultimately decided to have full Prostatectomy. Never looked back at what might have been.

Bottom line, it's an early indicator of a possible problem. only leads to more testing to validate diagnosis. If PSA is high, go see a Urologist!
 
Roger That Rambler!
Had similar diagnosis with high gleason number and aggressive form of prostate cancer. I had my prostate removed and they found microscopic evidence of the cancer outside my prostate. I’m still having lupron treatments. Underwent 39 radiation treatments a year and a half ago. So far psa’s have been non detect. Mine started with a UTI and a baseline psa test. 6 months later my numbers were rising fast. Generalizing about symptoms and treatments doesn’t apply to everyone.
 
Oh, I'm generalizing to include the threads debating various magic compounds and drugs that people are self-prescribing. The stuff found on the OTC shelf at any health food store.


I knew that taking Proscar or Finesteride (generic) will reduce PSA levels. So that got me wondering, does it have any effect on prostate cancer?
Apparently it does.


https://www.webmd.com/prostate-cancer/news/20190124/finasteride-can_safely-cut-prostate-cancer-risk


https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/...prostate-cancer-prevention-finasteride-parnes
 
VA assistance

Had elevated PSA so eventually got a biopsy. One in twelve samples showed a slight positive result. I served in Vietnam which means possible exposure to agent orange. Under guidelines I qualify for disability to the tune of $3400/month. PSA is still somewhat elevated but the velocity is stable so watchful waiting is the word.
 
Had elevated PSA so eventually got a biopsy. One in twelve samples showed a slight positive result. I served in Vietnam which means possible exposure to agent orange. Under guidelines I qualify for disability to the tune of $3400/month. PSA is still somewhat elevated but the velocity is stable so watchful waiting is the word.

Welcome home!
 
I'm now in my mid-70's and started getting an annual PSA test 30 years ago. I keep a graph of the results over the years.
For the first 20 years the number zigged considerably between .8 and 1.4
For the last 10 years it has been on a gradual decline down to about .6
My PCP says I could definitely stop doing the test at my age, but also says that there is still some value in the testing if we understand that velocity is at least as important as absolute numbers, and that a high number is no reason to jump immediately to a biopsy.
The test is just another source of information to consider.
 
As some have pointed out, it's a good idea to trust your doctor. I had a great urologist and I trusted him completely.

First PSA test I ever had, over 20 years ago, was 9.1 and that scared the hell out of me. He correctly decided that it was caused by simple prostatitis and easily fixed with antibiotics.

Since then it has bounced around all over the place but the lowest it has EVER been was 3.6 and that would be considered quite high for most people. My urologist has been checking with the finger wave all along, of course, and he said it was just a case of a very enlarged gland.

Over the years, I've had three biopsies and a TURP, and every sample has always come back negative, so the doc was apparently quite right.

I expect to live a bit longer, so I will probably have more PSA tests, but my point here is simply to point out two things:

  • We're all different.
  • Your doctor probably knows more than you do.
 
My PSA & Diagnosis

Having read a lot of the posts here, I can only respond by sharing my experience and what I've since learned having gone through all this.

In May of 2009, I had received my diagnosis that I had prostate cancer. I had been to see my GP for my routine wellness exam and my bloodwork showed my PSA went from 1.9 the year previously to a 3.7-- almost doubled. Followup with a urologist digital exam and he found a hard "nodule" on the left side , did another PSA that confirmed the first and scheduled a needle biopsy. Long story short: the biopsy revealed a Gleason 7/12 which means that I had 7 areas that had cancerous cells. Follow-up scans showed pretty much confirmed the left side of the prostate was mostly cancerous and the right side had some signs.

I had been getting PSA & digital exams since my mid 30's as I had some family history with men on my dad's side having this happen to them. Most had died from other conditions due to smoking and poor diet in the late 50's to late 60's. But a few had been diagnosed with prostate and / or bladder cancers.

Now I elected to have robotic surgery because of the apparent aggressiveness of the cancer... and I was in my early 50's and in pretty good health, non-smoker, and good weight, etc. I had been looking into Cryo-therapies as there had been some good studies out and I talked with some patients who had this done and their outcomes were good. They were also much older and they felt they felt they could mentally deal with having a recurrence and then proceed with things like radiation, etc. Plus they didn't have as much cancer in the prostate as I did which made them better candidates for a more successful outcome. (There's some argument to be made as to which is best at which age ...but I'm telling my story here-- not theirs.)

I went with robotic surgery because there weren't enough docs in my area who had experience with Cryo-therapy treatments for prostate cancer. And those clinics that were within decent driving distance had a waiting list for almost two months before I could even get an initial consult and then likely wait another two or three months before having the procedure done. I wanted the cancer out ASAP and so I make the decision for the Da Vinci surgery. I had looked into radiation and other therapies but I wasn't comfortable with the 10 - year outcomes when compared with radical prostatecomy. And proton radiation was very limited in the US at the time which is much more targeted, less side effect / damage to healthy tissue, etc. Now we have two Proton treatment centers nearby and they stay booked up.

So I had this rationale in making my decision: As others had posted previously -- data shows that for many men -- they will die from other health conditions before the prostate cancer spreads -- but -- more younger men are being diagnosed early than ever thanks to PSA, scans, etc. And while I wouldn't recommend a needle biopsy to anyone -- I was surprised at how easy it was and while not comfortable -- I wasn't in agony after it was over. It was a tad gross dealing with the residual blood afterward which can give you a start when urinating afterward but it does subside in a couple of days or so.

The thing is that until recently -- the docs really didn't have enough data to give me a definite "yes this is super aggressive and will spread in a matter of months" to "Let's wait a few months and see where this goes if it does."
"Watchful Waiting" was/is a choice that some docs will throw out there and yes some men may have very slow-growing prostate cancer and may never need to deal with it as they may die from other things. But my doc who I had been seeing since my 20's told me that the diagnosis was showing my cancer to be of the aggressive kind based on my routine checkups... several years of PSA / digital exams, etc.

I had a friend recently go through the same experience and his cancer analysis was pretty more detailed in the biopsy: his needle core biopsy demonstrated focal signet ring cell-like features. That means it is a rare and aggressive cancer, hallmarked by a fast metastasis to the bones and little to no symptoms. That is...no symptom until it is too late.

So there's that. Anyways he's on to recovery and I will be 12 years from my surgery back in July 2009. I had one side nerve bundle removed along with a lymph node and my final pathology was T2n which was 2nd stage and everything contained within the gland "capsule". I had limited side effects initially but all is well and I am "still in the game" so to speak without need of ED meds. (It helps that my better-half still turns heads even in her 60's... she looks 39 :D )

Like I said earlier -- this is MY STORY -- I don't presume anyone to have the same thoughts, opinions, rationale, etc.. But I will say that getting a PSA and digital exam every year is a really good idea.

ALSO -- elevated PSA simply means "inflammation".. If you had any "exertion" the day before (workouts, constipation or bedroom play ) you may elevate your PSA level to a point that could cause concern. Even so, docs will recommend a 2nd PSA to verify along with a digital exam and/or ultrasound...and even then maybe some scans before going the needle biopsy route.

ONE FINAL THOUGHT -- Cancer doesn't play fair and it is the Emperor of all maladies. Become well-informed and don't take off-the-cuff social media anecdotes as gospel as everyone is different. Don't ignore it and go get checked and re-checked if you need a second opinion. I went to see another urologist/prostate doc who was not part of the same hospital group and he pretty much said the same as the doc before. He recommended an 'old school prostatectomy going through the groin'... simply because that's all he had in his practice -- no robotic capabilities. AND -- this is important -- get a doc who has had at least 300 or so surgeries and ask for his "complication rate"... any surgeon who says they don't have any is simply not telling the truth. All surgeons who do it enough have complications. My surgeon had more than 600 on the Da Vinci robot and he had <6% complications and told me what went wrong on each of them -- more than half were because of pre-existing conditions (obesity, cardiovascular issues, machine "freezing", etc.)

Every doc I asked said he was the doc they'd want doing it so that was a good sign.

Anyways... that's my story ... FWIW. Good luck to all who may be facing these decisions. But thanks to better surgical interventions and the Proton therapy -- there are better outcomes than in previous years.
 
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I had 2 close family members with Prostate cancer, so I started PSA's and digitals at age 40. When I was 61 my PSA went from 1.0 to 4.0 Gp sent me to a great urologist. Manages his large practice, does research, and though a surgeon*hasn't done surgery for 10 years.

Did a biopsy at 61 one 1.0mm cancer of 15 samples. Repeat biopsy next year same result Gleason score 2+3. Choose active surveillance rather than any treatment PSA and Digital every 6 months for 9 years, PSA never above 4.3.

Well my urologist suggested we do an MRI and if needed another biopsy. So we do a fusion biopsy ultrasound overlaid*the MRI. Old tumor updated to 3+4 which isn't as bad as 4+3. One other 3+3 tumor is also present.

On the fence here as the main tumor is very slow growing and not aggressive. The Urologist's opinion is that I would probably be 85 before I have any problems, and second 70 year olds don't do as well after a prostatectomy. I had a robotic hernia repair 2 years ago and the outcome was great, but seemed to take a little bounce out of my step.

I will see an oncologist before any decision on the future course of treatment, but again the alternative treatments are not exciting to me.
 
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My PSA score started creeping up some 20 years ago. Generally around the time my urologist, who I visit twice a year, saw my prostate enlarging as I grew older.

My numbers are higher than the 4.0 that urologist tend to be the number where they want to do a biopsy. I had a biopsy. It showed no cancer. My numbers generally range between 7 and 11, but they bounce around and go up an down. I'm also very sexually active and yes, even masturbate often, which raises PSA.

My urologist is not concerned. My numbers tend to run high but go down as much as they go up. He said he's less concerned with the number as in what direction they are going, especially if there was a huge jump upwards. He said your numbers would generally not go down if I had prostate cancer. They would generally only go in one direction... Up. He feels that in my case, there are other factors why my numbers tend to run high. My enlarged prostate is one. An active sex life is another. I've been on Testosterone Replacement Therapy for over 15years. I also self intermittent cath due to my enlarged prostate which can irritate the prostate and sometimes causes UTI's that can also raise PSA. My dad lived to 98 with a huge prostate. He spent the last year or two of his life on a Foley catheter, but never had cancer.
 
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FYI from the British National Health system:

There's currently no screening programme for prostate cancer in the UK. This is because it has not been proved that the benefits would outweigh the risks.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/prostate-cancer/psa-testing/

Combined with posts here that physicians and their associations in the U.S. are either not encouraging, or discouraging, PSA screening suggests that the UK precedent is where the U.S. is headed.

I view the UK, Germany and Japan as good national benchmarks for health system management. The U.S. spends 3-4 times as much on healthcare, as a percentage of GDP, compared with other industrialized countries. Health outcomes are no better than these benchmark countries, and in some health categories are far worse. Reducing or eliminating unnecessary screening, such as the PSA test, is one very small step to bringing the U.S. cost structure in line with other industrialized countries.

To get a feel for what the U.S. spending 3-4 times on healthcare vs other countries might feel like, consider this:

- sell your house to the nearest investor at market price
- buy it back from the investor for a price 4 times what you have just sold it for
- do you feel good, or not feel good, about the transaction you have just completed?
 
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Well my urologist suggested we do an MRI and if needed another biopsy. So we do a fusion biopsy ultrasound overlaid*the MRI. Old tumor updated to 3+4 which isn't as bad as 4+3. One other 3+3 tumor is also present.....

I will see an oncologist before any decision on the future course of treatment, but again the alternative treatments are not exciting to me.

Seems like an intelligent approach for a high risk individual. You might ask the oncologist about genetic testing (more for family members. ) I don't know much about this but I have Google and know an oncologist who does it, lol.

https://www.urologyhealth.org/healt...ting-for-prostate-cancer-what-you-should-know

Of course high tech personalized medicine isn't going to be as cheap as just not screening at all. It is understandable that UK for example would just advocate no screening.
 
I get really upset by guys who avoid PSA testing and the finger wave. I am alive today because I got PSA tests over a 4 year period (very important it is from the same lab), and they discovered the numbers going up at an alarming rate which is called Velocity. Had the digital exams where a BB texture was noted, had a CT scan (because I got into a study), had the biopsy which was a Gleason 6, got a second opinion by the US's leading pathologist Dr. Epstein ($500 out-of-pocket) and was told it's a Gleason 7, but post surgery it turned out my prostate cancer was really a Gleason 8! I'd be dead by now.

Thank God I had the Davinci surgery at a major university teaching hospital by the US's doctor with the most experience. I made sure the students were not allowed to do the surgery. No matter how inconvenient it may be, you want to go to a large teaching hospital whose Uro department is part of major medical studies, even if this means a lot of driving and hotel expense. I had done much research and was not a candidate for radiation or hormones because the nodules were too close to the gland's edges. Being a Type 2 diabetic I could not have hormone treatments.

Beware that there is a whole industry of urologists who band together and form their own prostate clinics because it is a major income increase from working at a hospital. These clinics are based around the "State-of-the-Art" radiation equipment they invest in, so their decision will always be radiation, which might not be your best choice. That is what I found out, these free standing indie clinics gave the opposite advice of the university hospital doctors who write the textbooks.

In sum, if your prostate surgery leaves the gland they will play Whack-A-Mole the rest of your downhill life. The best source I ever found for prostate cancer info is Healing Well, lurk for a few days and then start participating:

https://www.healingwell.com/community/default.aspx?f=35

There's also Us Too:

https://www.ustoo.org

Cancer doesn't sleep. Stay on top of it. Your urologist has a few hundred patients, it's up to you to monitor it. Good luck
 
FYI from the British National Health system:

There's currently no screening programme for prostate cancer in the UK. This is because it has not been proved that the benefits would outweigh the risks.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/prostate-cancer/psa-testing/

Combined with posts here that physicians and their associations in the U.S. are either not encouraging, or discouraging, PSA screening suggests that the UK precedent is where the U.S. is headed.

I view the UK, Germany and Japan as good national benchmarks for health system management. The U.S. spends 3-4 times as much on healthcare, as a percentage of GDP, compared with other industrialized countries. Health outcomes are no better than these benchmark countries, and in some health categories are far worse. Reducing or eliminating unnecessary screening, such as the PSA test, is one very small step to bringing the U.S. cost structure in line with other industrialized countries.

To get a feel for what the U.S. spending 3-4 times on healthcare vs other countries might feel like, consider this:

- sell your house to the nearest investor at market price
- buy it back from the investor for a price 4 times what you have just sold it for
- do you feel good, or not feel good, about the transaction you have just completed?



Reducing screening will indeed save the NHS a lot of money. May not be the best advice for you as an individual though.
 
Reducing screening will indeed save the NHS a lot of money. May not be the best advice for you as an individual though.

+1. Saving money is nice until you're the one with with terminal cancer that could've been caught early. FWIW, I lived in Japan and found their overall health care system underwhelming at best and dangerous at worst.
 
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Not a guy - but have a lot of men who've had prostate cancer in my family.

Dad had prostate cancer, first detected with PSA. Treated with radiation and considered "cured". He later died of an unrelated multiple myeloma. (Yep two distinct cancer malignancies.) My cousin had a high PSA at age 41 - and follow up determined it was an aggressive prostate cancer. Had the prostrate removed. Continued periodic exams with his urologist/oncologist where they discovered testicular cancer. 5 years after his prostate cancer (Yep, two distinct cancer types, not metastatic). In both cases of my dad and cousin the PSA was the first sign of their prostate cancer.

But then again - my family is a cancer cluster. In addition to the 4 cancers among 2 people listed above, my brother had melenoma in his 20's - surgery fixed it. Then in his late forties got a super aggressive neuroendocrine carcinoma (super rare, and very deadly). Who knows, he might have developed prostate cancer later if the other cancers didn't get him first. So that's the third male in my close family that had two separate cancer types, not metastatic.

Mom died of ovarian cancer. Like the PSA test, there is a CA125 test that acts as an 'trend line' for ovarian cancer. Mom had numbers in the 'normal' range while she had full blown, stage 3 ovarian. After surgery and chemo her numbers dropped a bit. But then jumped up - sure enough - it had metastaticized. The CA125 isn't considered diagnostic/definitive - but it's a great indicator that things are changing. Because of her history I have CA125 tests done every few years... just to be a canary in the coalmine if I ever get ovarian cancer... they have a baseline to compare. Blood tests are fairly non-invasive and ovarian cancer can be symptom free in early stages when it's treatable. Like PSA tests, they are now discouraging annual mammograms and pap tests.... But I still get them. Like I said - my family is a cancer cluster... I have Kaiser which tends to only do the recommended - but my doctor, given the family history, has me ok'd for more frequent mammos and paps.

I agree completely with the idea to follow up with a second test before moving forward to a biopsy... But not sure I'd encourage my husband or sons to skip the tests altogether.
 
Reducing screening will indeed save the NHS a lot of money. May not be the best advice for you as an individual though.

+1. Saving money is nice until you're the one with with terminal cancer that could've been caught early. FWIW, I lived in Japan and found their overall health care system underwhelming at best and dangerous at worst.

+1

Our older daughter worked in London for a year and had a NHS worker tell her "Don't get sick here!".
Both the dermatologist and dentist she used in London seem totally unaware of doing any kind of checkups as preventative medicine.
 
As some have pointed out, BPH and especially prostate size will impact your PSA score. My PSA typically ranges from 3.5-4.5 for the past five years. However, I believe it is important for your urologist to measure your prostate size as a determining factor before going to a biopsy. Many don't bother with this step. My prostate size was large...72cc about 4 years ago (it's probably larger now), which means a PSA of 7.2 or less would be considered in a "normal" range. Since I regularly have a digital exam with no nodules, my urologist has held off on the biopsy based on my PSA versus prostate size calculation.

Even if you take it upon yourself to research this, there isn't a lot of articles on this, but when you find it, they are consistent with prostate size and PSA number.
 
I knew that taking Proscar or Finesteride (generic) will reduce PSA levels. So that got me wondering, does it have any effect on prostate cancer?
Apparently it does.

https://www.webmd.com/prostate-cancer/news/20190124/finasteride-can_safely-cut-prostate-cancer-risk
https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/...prostate-cancer-prevention-finasteride-parnes


Yeah, it might, but there are also potential side effects to consider:

"It is important to note that finasteride can have side effects, including sexual side effects. In the PCPT, we saw a small, but statistically significant increase in these side effects. There have also been reports of an increased incidence of depression associated with finasteride. So, the potential risks, as well as the benefits, of finasteride should be part of the conversation about its use."
 
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