Will We Get A Santa Rally in 2022?

COcheesehead said:
If we don’t see a rebound here in the next day and a half, that will be considered a negative indicator, only one, but still a negative for what could play out in 2023.
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Why would the market not going up for a few days be taken as a negative indicator for the entire year?
 
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FREE866 said:
Can you provide a source for this?
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^^^

That’s just one source. There are more if you Google it.

Also from the article

Data bears that out. If Santa delivers a rally, the S&P 500 on average gains 1.3% in January and 10.9% for the new year 75.4% of the time, LPL said.

If Santa’s a no-show, the S&P 500 historically underperforms in January and over the following year. The S&P 500 on average drops 0.3% and returns only 4.1% for the new year 66.7% of the time,
 
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COcheesehead said:
History

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...ta-claus-rally-means-2023-stocks/10966603002/

From the article…
Years when there was no Santa Claus rally tended to precede bear markets or times when stocks hit significantly lower prices later in the year.”
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Yeah, I'm sure we could go back and forth with articles on both sides of this...here is one posted below, but I don't think trying to find seasonal patterns to predict where stock prices are going is a solid investment philosophy....Santa clause rally, January effect, "sell in May and go away"....there are a few others....they are catchy phrases, but I don't think successful long term investors like Buffet, Munger, Templeton, etc would ascribe to them.........if it were only that easy!




https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-the-santa-claus-rally-and-january-effect-2013-12-05
 
FREE866 said:
Yeah, I'm sure we could go back and forth with articles on both sides of this...here is one posted below, but I don't think trying to find seasonal patterns to predict where stock prices are going is a solid investment philosophy....Santa clause rally, January effect, "sell in May and go away"....there are a few others....they are catchy phrases, but I don't think successful long term investors like Buffet, Munger, Templeton, etc would ascribe to them.........if it were only that easy!




https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-the-santa-claus-rally-and-january-effect-2013-12-05
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Ok. Thanks for the article from 9 years ago. Happy New Year.
 
COcheesehead said:
^^^

That’s just one source. There are more if you Google it.

Also from the article

Data bears that out. If Santa delivers a rally, the S&P 500 on average gains 1.3% in January and 10.9% for the new year 75.4% of the time, LPL said.

If Santa’s a no-show, the S&P 500 historically underperforms in January and over the following year. The S&P 500 on average drops 0.3% and returns only 4.1% for the new year 66.7% of the time,
Click to expand...


I will be happy with 0.3%. I sell options, and make a few % extra whether the market is up or down.

So, 0.3% is good. -20% or -10% is not good.
 
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NW-Bound said:
I will be happy with 0.3%. I sell options, and make a few % extra whether the market is up or down.

So, 0.3% is good. -20% or -10% is not good.
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Yes, you and I don’t depend or need a positive equity market to be happy. Some others? Not so much.
 
COcheesehead said:
Yes, you and I don’t depend or need a positive equity market to be happy. Some others? Not so much.
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I don't mind getting happier if given a bullish market. :)

Well, a bull market always gives me a consternation though. I am somewhat contrarian, and always want to sell in a bull market. But overcoming FOMO is hard, as people know. Selling OTM calls is a way for me to cope with FOMO.

I feel more serene in a bear market, if you can believe that. None of this raucous meme thing, and silly investment schemes. It's nice and quiet, other than some moaning and groaning in the background.
 
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Wow - finally a rally. Thanks to Santa for waiting until after I’d done my rebalance as this year I bought equities. Of course it’s still early in the trading day, could turn negative again.

Most years I’m trimming equities (or they trim themselves via capital gains distributions in December) and adding to fixed income in Jan rebalancing. This tends to benefit from the usual Santa Claus rally.

ETA: even today’s rally appears to have fizzled!
 
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Not much of a rally, but I will take it.

Being busy today buying back many OTM options. They are going to bite the dust in 2 days, but closing them out frees the stocks for more option selling later.

I like it.
 
NW-Bound said:
Not much of a rally, but I will take it.

Being busy today buying back many OTM options. They are going to bite the dust in 2 days, but closing them out frees the stocks for more option selling later.

I like it.
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Yeah, up is better than down, but it seems a bit early to call a "rally" though I don't know the technical definition of a rally. Since the markets were down so much for the year, I'm just still counting my blessings that my official RMD will be much smaller this year. You gotta take your victories where you can find them - even when they don't always feel like a victory. YMMV
 
Koolau said:
Yeah, up is better than down, but it seems a bit early to call a "rally" though I don't know the technical definition of a rally. Since the markets were down so much for the year, I'm just still counting my blessings that my official RMD will be much smaller this year. You gotta take your victories where you can find them - even when they don't always feel like a victory. YMMV
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We are talking about the Santa Claus rally which ends today.

It’s been a real fizzle.
 
audreyh1 said:
We are talking about the Santa Claus rally which ends today.

It’s been a real fizzle.
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Yeah, I guess I REALLY don't understand the technical definition of a Santa Clause rally. In any case, I don't "bank" any of the ups in the market. I enjoy the ups more than the downs, but I default to "the plan" in any case. Heh, heh, just like the little kid who didn't get what he wanted for Christmas, there's always next year.
 
As I write this, the S&P is up .65% which if it finishes there, we would technically have a SC rally.
 
Koolau said:
Yeah, I guess I REALLY don't understand the technical definition of a Santa Clause rally. In any case, I don't "bank" any of the ups in the market. I enjoy the ups more than the downs, but I default to "the plan" in any case. Heh, heh, just like the little kid who didn't get what he wanted for Christmas, there's always next year.
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Last 5 trading days of the year and first 2 of the new year as discussed earlier in this thread. Historically there is a nice pop between those dates inclusive. But not this year!
 
Koolau said:
... I enjoy the ups more than the downs, but I default to "the plan" in any case...
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Same here.

My plan is, if the market goes up, I sell OTM calls. If the market goes down, I sell OTM puts. If the market is flat, I sell a bit of both. Heh heh heh...
 
NW-Bound said:
Same here.

My plan is, if the market goes up, I sell OTM calls. If the market goes down, I sell OTM puts. If the market is flat, I sell a bit of both. Heh heh heh...
Click to expand...

Heh, heh, my plan is to ignore the noise and rebalance once a year. YMMV
 
I'll enjoy the little pop, although I'm not selling anything . . .
 
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