Woo-Hoo!!!

[ziggy29]

We've been jinxed again by the woo hoo posts !

I think it has as much to do with a superstitious market and the psychology of the difficulty reaching *and keeping* that extra digit on the Dow as anything. It seems silly and illogical, but there are eight decades of history supporting it to some degree.

The Dow first hit 100 in 1906. It didn't *hold* 100 until 1943 -- 37 years later.

The Dow was five measly points from hitting 1000 in 1966. It didn't get those five points until 1972 and it didn't *hold* 1000 until 1982 -- 16 years after flirting with 1000.

The Dow first hit 10,000 in 1999, then crashed below it in 2000 only to retake it in 2004 -- only to crash way below it in 2008. And then it retook 10000 for a few days last week and now it's retreating again. It's been 10 years and counting...

At some point we'll retake 10,000 for good, but it feels to me like too many traders remember their history. And maybe I'm wrong, but it felt like a good time for me to rebalance a bit out of equities and drop my AA to 55/45 as well. If that makes me a bit of a "dirty market timer," so be it but it also feels like the market is getting WAY ahead of the economy, not just the usual several months ahead of it.

 

[DblDoc]

For those of us accumulating the longer we bounce around below 10,000 the better. I haven't been buying equities lately. Not because I'm timing, just because my AA required I buy bonds to keep up with the increased value of my equities. Funny how that works, I don't even need a newsletter .

DD

 

[harley]

This thread is very likely the stun gun in the abattoir. We are stumbling down the chute.
The rally is on borrowed time.

A few months from now the all-cash people will be back telling us how clever they are.

Sure am glad I'm still mostly in cash!

Of course, that's mostly due to analysis paralysis. I'm in the process of DCAing into my AA, but since my former FA kept convincing me not to have ANY bonds in my portfolio, I'm buying bonds now to get in sync. Hopefully by the time I'm ready to start averaging in equities again they'll be at a more reasonable valuation considering the state of the economy. So go ahead and woo-hoo and whee for a while longer. I need the discount. But even if it doesn't happen, I'm sticking with my plan.

 

[NW-Bound]

Sure am glad I'm still mostly in cash!

You still got cash? My man, then buy, buy, buy. You blew your chance in March 09, now the market just gave you another chance.

The country, no the world, needs a few good courageous buyers of stocks. Step right up and click on BUY, right here. Just a flick of your index finger. We can all become winners.

 

[NW-Bound]

What happened? No follow up post? Didn't the market movement leave us all speechless?

I was down 2% yesterday, despite being only 70% in equities. Made back most of it today! I have not made any [-]trade[/-] rebalancing in a couple of months now, and will not be for a while.

One of my positions, GoodYear, got hammered yesterday and today after its earnings report. But with it being less than 0.5% of the portfolio, I can stand the pain and be able to watch in amazement. It must be that people with cars and RVs, yes those class As with expensive tires, have been delaying replacement of their tires. They will just have to learn it the hard way. Let's see if they would remember that the right corrective action is to step on the gas after a blowout.

 

[W2R]

What happened? No follow up post? Didn't the market movement leave us all speechless?

I was down 2% yesterday, despite being only 70% in equities. Made back most of it today! I have not made any [-]trade[/-] rebalancing in a couple of months now, and will not be for a while.

One of my positions, GoodYear, got hammered yesterday and today after its earnings report. But with it being less than 0.5% of the portfolio, I can stand the pain and be able to watch in amazement. It must be that people with cars and RVs, yes those class As with expensive tires, have been delaying replacement of their tires. They will just have to learn it the hard way. Let's see if they would remember that the right corrective action is to step on the gas after a blowout.

It's just bobbling around Dow 10,000, the way it always seems to have done in the past. Reaching 10,000 again was a milestone of sorts. We need to be patient for a while.

 

[NW-Bound]

By the way, Vanguard is the 3rd largest holder of Goodyear (GT), while Fidelity is #1. So, many of us here own this stock without knowing it.

I like to run my own "mutual fund" by owning stocks directly. That way, I "know" what is going on. It's part of the fun of investing. An analogy is this. Many people like to eat sausage, but do not want to know what goes into it and how it is made. I get dirty and make my own sausage.

 

[W2R]

By the way, Vanguard is the 3rd largest holder of Goodyear (GT), while Fidelity is #1. So, many of us here own this stock without knowing it.

I like to run my own "mutual fund" by owning stocks directly. That way, I "know" what is going on. It's part of the fun of investing. An analogy is this. Many people like to eat sausage, but do not want to know what goes into it and how it is made. I get dirty and make my own sausage.

Before I met Frank, I dated a Creole man from St. Martinville who made his own boudin. I asked him what he put into it, and he said that if he told me I'd probably never eat boudin again.

 

[NW-Bound]

Hmm... Have you looked at your MF mailings to see what is in your beloved Wellesley and Wellington?

 

[W2R]

Hmm... Have you looked at your MF mailings to see what is in your beloved Wellesley and Wellington?

It might be like boudin! (yes, I've looked but without dwelling on it... )

 

[NW-Bound]

Exactly. What you don't know can't hurt you!

 

[audreyh1]

Well, we did our part to help Goodyear, as we bought $3000 worth of high performance tires this past August for our motorhome.

We did have to call Goodyear directly to actually get these tires. But then Goodyear made sure our tire shop and their distributor got them to us.

And the date codes were only 5 weeks old when they were installed - talk about fresh tires!!!!!

Audrey

 

[audreyh1]

If you want to know what your mutual funds own, use the M* "stock intersection" function of the portfolio X-ray. You do have to have a subscription to use this.

It is an amazingly powerful and useful feature. I definitely take a peak at least once a year.

Audrey

P.S. Amazingly Goodyear did not show up in my stock intersection! I have own a lot of mutual funds, so I'm very surprised.

 

[NW-Bound]

Hmm... Don't you need some new batteries too? Does Exide have the size your RV needs? (I got some Exide stock They are supposed to return to profitability next year)

 

[audreyh1]

Hmm... Don't you need some new batteries too? Does Exide have the size your RV needs? (I got some Exide stock They are supposed to return to profitability next year)

Not yet - our batteries are doing very well. We routinely test them, and we have a "watering system" for keeping them topped off which I'm told prolongs the life quite a bit.

We have a huge battery bank - 8 house batteries (golf cart type). Two chassis batteries of course.

Audrey

 

[NW-Bound]

Well... So no new batteries...

How about some solar panels to keep those batteries charged when you boondock?

Wait. I do not have any solar stocks. What else can I sell you

Yes! I know there's something. I still have several energy stocks, oil services and drillers. It's gonna cost you to fill that baby up. Yes, it will. Crude is up to $80/barrel already

 

[REWahoo]

We have a huge battery bank - 8 house batteries (golf cart type). Two chassis batteries of course.

NW, here is an example of how much variability there can be in weight and distribution between RV's built on the same chassis. One Class C manufacturer might have only one 12V house battery while another might spec two or even four 6V batteries. At 60+ pounds each, this can result in significantly different weights and handling.

 

[audreyh1]

Well... So no new batteries...

How about some solar panels to keep those batteries charged when you boondock?

Wait. I do not have any solar stocks. What else can I sell you

Yes! I know there's something. I still have several energy stocks, oil services and drillers. It's gonna cost you to fill that baby up. Yes, it will. Crude is up to $80/barrel already

We already have a big enough solar panel - you do eventually run out of roof real-estate!

Don't worry - we had to take an extra trip for service and it required a refuel so we paid $2.76/gal for 75 gals of diesel - arrrrgh! So long to the sub $150 fuel fillups! It was nice while it lasted.

Audrey

 

[NW-Bound]

I have been busy w*rking all day, and just now got home to check my portfolio.

My, my, my... It's not funny anymore. With the job situation being so bad, the sour mood is going to affect everybody. If we all tighten our purse string, it will be tougher for the economy to recover. Yet, how can one feel good to spend money in this environment?

 

[Spanky]

I have been busy w*rking all day, and just now got home to check my portfolio.

My, my, my... It's not funny anymore. With the job situation being so bad, the sour mood is going to affect everybody. If we all tighten our purse string, it will be tougher for the economy to recover. Yet, how can one feel good to spend money in this environment?

I have not checked it yet .. cannot bear the thought of seeing the decline in value. Yea .. it would be interesting to see if people are starting to spend more as the Xmas holidays are on the horizon.

 

[audreyh1]

Hey folks - we just had a few down days after an incredible market run. I can't believe how down in the dumps folks are already. Don't you know that a correction is actually a healthier thing to happen after such a run? Really - this stuff is par for the course.

Is this really going to make all the consumers run back into their shell and stop spending after they started again? Well - based on the mood of this thread maybe they will!!!!

Audrey

 

[ziggy29]

Hey folks - we just had a few down days after an incredible market run. I can't believe how down in the dumps folks are already. Don't you know that a correction is actually a healthier thing to happen after such a run? Really - this stuff is par for the course.

Well, Audrey, I'll start with the good news here: Yesterday was the last business day of the month, meaning that I bought more shares in my 401K yesterday. As far as I'm concerned, the market can always tank on the 15th and the last day of the month.

 

[CuppaJoe]

... meaning that I bought more shares in my 401K yesterday. As far as I'm concerned, the market can always tank on the 15th and the last day of the month.

I put up a sticky note to rebalance a little next week from bonds to stocks. Too late? Who me, thinking about market timing.

 

[NW-Bound]

I can't believe how down in the dumps folks are already. Don't you know that a correction is actually a healthier thing to happen after such a run? Really - this stuff is par for the course.

Hey, I am not selling anything, and would not be surprised whether the Dow will close at 9000 or 11,000 at year end. But I'd rather see the latter. Wouldn't you?

Yeah, let those young accumulators buy high! I'll [-]sell[/-] rebalance onto them at Dow 12,000, if I may.

Is this really going to make all the consumers run back into their shell and stop spending after they started again? Well - based on the mood of this thread maybe they will!!!!

Well, even though I have no plan to buy a "nice gently used diesel pusher RV", just the fact that the market god deducted almost that much off my net worth in less than 2 weeks got to slow me down some. Yes, spend, spend, spend. You go first.

 

[audreyh1]

Yes, spend, spend, spend. You go first.

Oh, we're settled down here for a month in the Rio Grande Valley, so spending will be light since we are not moving the motorhome and getting a monthly camping rate for once. And no RV service scheduled either!!!!!

We'll be ramping back up in December with schedule doctor/dentist visits and then driving to the east coast for Xmas.

Maybe the fuel prices will come back down by then? False hope, I'm sure!!!!!

Audrey