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  1. J

    Falling down at an old age - lost a friend recently

    Very to hear about this loss and the other stories. There are two types of muscle fibers: fast twitch and slow twitch. Slow twitch are involved in endurance movements like walking, jogging, lifting weights slowly. average pace cycling, or similar activities. Fast twitch are activated when...
  2. J

    Market volatility and balanced allocation concerns

    Is there an explanation for why bonds and stocks are no longer behaving inversely? 2022 was very stressful for me and I'm concerned it could happen again. I was not retired and not drawing on my portfolio at the time, but that market behavior would trigger my worst fear at retirement: sequence...
  3. J

    Debt ceiling strategy

    No country can continue to increase debt forever, not even the USA. That’s not a political statement, it’s just a fact. At some point, those who are buying the debt will decide the risk of not being paid back exceeds the promised return. The debt ceiling is a requirement for those...
  4. J

    Teach me how to BTD

    Lots of great advice! My $0.02: Imagine yourself a few years from now with it and without it. Given that it’s not a true budget blower like an exotic car, think about the monthly — if I buy it and really enjoy for 14 months, then it cost $100 per month. Enjoy it for 28 months = $50 per month. At...
  5. J

    Are "online only" bank deposits "safe"?

    There are specific reasons for each of the US bank failures that do not apply across the board to all banks. I have not had a moment’s concern about it after trading the Wall Street Journal explanations for each situation. The situation at Credit Swisse is more concerning, but mitigated here...
  6. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    I’m going to hope for the best and plan for the worst. No one on this thread has provided a hoped-for “here are drivers of growth that will contribute to continued economic prosperity of the USA”, so OMY at this point The only goal of my most recent long post was to give others more to think...
  7. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    Yes, I am thankful for TINA, though China is trying to change that. The story of Japan is instructive: they began to believe their destiny was to grow forever. But anyone who retired in Japan in the late 80s or early 90s based mostly or exclusively on stock market returns likely ran out of...
  8. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    That’s a useful reminder. And yet the caveat of “past performance” still holds … My parents both remembered the Great Depression. They were young, but it shaped their perspective and they passed it on. My dad lectured my brother and I by saying “You will be the man of the family, it is your...
  9. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    Excellent advice. #3 and #4 are why I am still working. I am hoping my employer will give me the flexibility to back off to 4 days per week at the end of the year and then 3 days per week. The cost of health insurance is a significant factor in my decision keep going past the planned retirement...
  10. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    Occam’s Razor: Maybe he was busy and don’t have time to respond over the past few days.
  11. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    I had not seen/read that thread, thanks for pointing me to it. There are some interesting and helpful posts. It is also the quintessential example of what I am questioning because the OP’s list of premises includes: d) A 60/40 portfolio will return 4% nominal terms every year A version of...
  12. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    Wow, that grew to be much longer than I expected. For anyone wanting to quote, please note that you can click Quote, then delete all but the sentences or paragraph that you want to include, not the whole thing. Just don’t delete the stuff in the square brackets at the beginning and end.
  13. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    Not the case. Unfortunately, I still work 50-60 hours per week, not retired, have kids and a wife, and have other time consuming commitments /activities in my life. As I was reading through any of the responses, I wanted to quote some of them in order to reinforce, but that became too complex...
  14. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    While the US debt is a major concern, there are many other points in my original post that also contribute to my concern that the economy may not grow and the stock market may not rise and my retirement assets may not survive even a 1-2% withdrawal rate. Are others concerned about the slowing...
  15. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    Locked? Are you saying a moderator would prevent discussion? Why? It’s a legitimate topic of discussion for people planning for or already in retirement. We all need to think about whether the US economy will continue to grow and the stock market will continue to provide returns greater than...
  16. J

    Expectations for the US economy

    There are innumerable charts and graphs that show the US economy and stock market have grown consistently throughout their history. The discussions about reasonable withdrawal rates ranging from 3-5% are built on the premise that past results will guarantee future returns over the long term...
  17. J

    Beds: Queen vs. King

    Depends on physical size and how much each of you move around during the night.
  18. J

    Take non-COLA pension now since the money will be devalued by inflation?

    Is it valid to do a standard ROI of $1838-$741= Gain of $1097 / $741= 148% over 11 years = 13.45% ? Is that the annualized ROI percentage? If so, it seems pretty clear that I should wait unless we get hyper inflation? While typing all that out in my initial post, I realize that I was very...
  19. J

    Take non-COLA pension now since the money will be devalued by inflation?

    Single life. There is virtually no chance my spouse will outlive me and she would be fine on the other retirement funds.
  20. J

    Take non-COLA pension now since the money will be devalued by inflation?

    $86,600 one time lump sum -- does not seem attractive. In a bit of a hurry at the moment, saw that there were replies, will be back to check out in more detail later when I have more time. Thanks!
  21. J

    Take non-COLA pension now since the money will be devalued by inflation?

    I will hit age 62 later this year. I have 2 relatively small pensions that will be part of my retirement income. Neither one has a COLA, so when I start taking them, that will be the amount I receive for the rest of my life. My family has genes for long lives - a couple grandparents lived well...
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